WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[Highteeld]

Perhaps the neutral shear conditions will still allow for further intensification as OHC's increase on the final lap of this typhoon's mighty journey.

Next 18-20 hours are crucial, but that eyewall looks damn ugly. No sign of ERC at all.

[NotoSans]

Surprised to see JTWC going that high. I just did a Dvorak myself and obtained a T6.5 - the W ring is not thick enough and there's no obvious banding feature.

[1900hurricane]

Back to 150 kt for 18Z.

26W MANGKHUT 180913 1800 15.2N 127.9E WPAC 150 903

[Highteeld]

Looks quite a bit larger after the ERC. Pretty incredible.

[Highteeld]

Could be approaching 160 knots if satellite continues to improve like this

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 132100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING
NR 28//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 402 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES STY 26W IS REINTENSIFYING AFTER COMPLETING AN EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE WITH COLDER CLOUD TOPS SURROUNDING A 33NM EYE, AND
A DISTINCT BANDING FEATURE. A 131516Z GMI 89GHZ IMAGE REVEALS AN
INTENSE, SYMMETRIC EYEWALL AND EXCELLENT SPIRAL BANDING. OVERALL,
THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 150 KNOTS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM T7.0 (140 KNOTS) TO T7.0 (155
KNOTS). UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO INDICATE A VERY
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED BY A TUTT CELL
TO THE EAST, AND LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. ADDITIONALLY, WARM SST (29-
30C) AND HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES ARE VERY FAVORABLE. STY 26W
IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE 34-KNOT AND 50-KNOT WIND
RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON A DETAILED ANALYSIS OF A RECENT
ASCAT IMAGE.
B. STY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 WITH
LANDFALL ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST OF LUZON NEAR TAU 24. STY 26W
WILL MAINTAIN STY INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24 UNDER VERY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. AFTER TAU 24, STY 26W WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT TRACKS OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS REGION OF
LUZON, RE-EMERGING OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS) NEAR TAU 36 NEAR
120 KNOTS. OVERALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST TRACK WITH
A TIGHT GROUPING OF THE NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE THROUGH TAU 72
(MODEL SPREAD AT TAU 72 IS ONLY 65NM).
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY MANGKHUT WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TO WESTWARD TRAJECTORY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF
THE STR. THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK ACROSS THE SCS JUST SOUTH OF HONG
KONG MAKING LANDFALL OVER SOUTHERN CHINA NEAR TAU 72. THE SYSTEM
WILL WEAKEN RAPIDLY AS IT TRACKS INTO NORTHERN VIETNAM BY TAU 120.
THE DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
EXCEPTIONALLY GOOD AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Very high numbers.

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09131659
SATCON: MSLP = 909 hPa MSW = 152 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 144.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 144 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 230 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -1.5 knots Source: MW

Member Estimates

ADT: 921 hPa 132 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP131910
CIMSS AMSU: 910 hPa 144 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09130936
ATMS: 901.9 hPa 155.4 knots Date: 09131659
SSMIS: 901.9 hPa 155.4 knots Date: 09131659
CIRA ATMS: 914 hPa 135 knots Date: 09121630

[doomhaMwx]

HWRF no longer showing a sub-800mb TC, only 840-850mb now

[doomhaMwx]

This is really really bad

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Getting this sick-in-the-stomach sensation I had with Haiyan. Bad, terrifying vibes.

[Kingarabian]

Here comes Josh:
 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1039981970799898624

[1900hurricane]

ADT has switched to the large eye screening.

[mrbagyo]

This storm is really cranking up. I think it's not yet at peak - that would happen at the area with highest OHC along its track.

So disappointed that I wont be able to chase this one due to some last minute emegency (my leave got approved, I was about to go to the bus terminal enroute for Tugueg then it happened. Deym - maybe this Typhoon is not for me)

This will be one hell of a chase for Josh, all flights bound for Tuguegarao are already grounded. That would leave him with 10 to 12 hours of land travel going to the chase area - but hey he has done it before in Haima, the difference is that this is much bigger and stronger.

James Reynolds is already on position since yesterday.

[1900hurricane]

Worth noting that outflow is a little lacking to the north with the big ridge sitting just over top. Still quite a bit of mass removal though.

[mrbagyo]

Lo and behold, I think Aparri radar is now working.

[doomhaMwx]

[Joe_1]

Tracking beast's just don't get much better than this one.

[1900hurricane]

I'd either stay 150 kt (near SATCON) or drop to 145 kt (giving a little weight to the lower subjective Dvorak numbers) for 00Z.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Imagine a Typhoon Tip bearing down on a landmass. Haiyan was more definitely more powerful, but it was less than half its size.

[mrbagyo]

Josh is now in Manila and will race to the North non-stop
 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1040411998364884998