ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

I'm really not seeing this thing intensifying. It's been firing off convention for well over 24 hours now, and the winds have cominuted to go down. No reason to believe it's going to srengthen much, if any now that it's very close to making landfall.

Was dealing with shear from the PV streamer (which it broke loose from this morning) and it's now over the Gulf Stream. And the winds are up.

I'm sure it'll ingest some dry air here shortly. Not to mention upswelling will be an issue soon.

CNN apparently showing storm surge up to 11 feet now, was 13 feet earlier, what gives with that?

You should probably read the earlier posts on hurricane size, strength and storm surge.

[Sciencerocks]

Honestly, looking back through the past 30 years there isn't very many cape Verde(MDR developers!) east coast hurricanes that restrengthen as they were approaching the east coast. Arthur and Gaston aint cape verde systems!(Home brew!).

Fran didn't restrengthen
Bonnie didn't restrengthen(weakened slightly)
Floyd was weakening
Isabel was weakening
Irene was weakening

I think the last east coast MDR/Cape verde storm long tracker to strengthen as it was making landfall was Hugo.

This is probably going to have slightly more punch as it will be able to mix more of those winds down being that it is strengthening...I think the ULL that imported shear and dry air on this that normally would have continued to weaken the cyclone in the cases above has moved away as the pattern is changing in this case.

[seahawkjd]

Honestly, looking back through the past 30 years there isn't very many cape Verde(MDR developers!) east coast hurricanes that restrengthen as they were approaching the east coast. Arthur and Gaston aint cape verde systems!(Home brew!).

Fran didn't restrengthen
Bonnie didn't restrengthen(weakened slightly)
Floyd was weakening
Isabel was weakening
Irene was weakening

I think the last east coast MDR/Cape verde storm long tracker to strengthen as it was making landfall was Hugo.


This is probably going to have slightly more punch as it will be able to mix more of those winds down being that it is strengthening...

You left out Bertha. It was a tropical storm and weakening then hit the Gulf Stream and jumped up to almost a 2.

[PavelGaborik10]

You should probably read the earlier posts on hurricane size, strength and storm surge.[/quote]

What I should've said was "down to a maximum of 11 feet" since it had 13 earlier.

[Raebie]

Could someone post a recent water vapor loop?

You can find that at Tropical Tidbits along with all other loops.

[meriland29]

How fast is she moving? She is so close to land I find it baffling she is capable of strengthening now...isn't she going N of the Gulf S now?

[xironman]

CALO now at 60kt

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=clkn7

[Macrocane]

Fisting

I was about to say that.
It has the typical "fist" appearence on IR that hurricanes have before rapidly intensifying.
I'm not a pro met but I have seen that in several hurricanes, hopefully we're wrong this time.

[jlauderdal]

Funny how badly NHC has been at predicting the intensity of this storm... they were expecting strengthening and it weakened before, and now that its close to the coast, they predicted weakening and now its strenghtening!

They admit intensity forecasting is difficult and not nearly as accurate as track forecasting

[jlauderdal]

The convection has been intensifying for several hours, could be a 3 soon

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1040357079826014208

He's making an irresponsible statement. Florence is showing some signs of intensification but it's nowhere close to RI

He is a pro-met, so don't question him. You might not agree but I have seen plenty of people get banned for less.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely some changes occurring within Florence right now. Looks significantly better organized than 6 hours ago.

[Blinhart]

How fast is she moving? She is so close to land I find it baffling she is capable of strengthening now...isn't she going N of the Gulf S now?

She is drifting around, the only way she will get north of the gulf stream is to get to Greenland. It is really should be called the Gulf Stream, it basically is flow of warm water that goes completely around the edge of the Atlantic Ocean.

[meriland29]

Does anyone know how fast she is moving in the Atlantic or does it vary? Last i heard was 6mph.. But I thought she picked up speed and moved north.

I am curious if she near upwellable, shallow waters ...or how far away she is from it..

[Kazmit]

How fast is she moving? She is so close to land I find it baffling she is capable of strengthening now...isn't she going N of the Gulf S now?

The core is still over water. And I'm no expert on this but I heard that the friction of land can actually help tighten up storms.

[tolakram]

[Raebie]

Does anyone know how fast she is moving in the Atlantic or does it vary? Last i heard was 6mph.. But I thought she picked up speed and moved north.

I am curious if she near upwellable, shallow waters ...or how far away she is from it..

It's drifting around. This is the stall we've been talking about all week.

[meriland29]

The edge of her eye looks less than 50 miles from Moorhead and moving towards it.

[LarryWx]

Wobble or not, Flo has gone from a NNW heading to a WNW heading recently. Much more movement last couple of hours vs earlier.

[ScottNAtlanta]

[NDG]

Saved fast radar loop during the past 10 hrs, overall it has not moved much during the day, stair stepping during the past few hours.