ATL: ISAAC - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So the Euro 12Z so far has a weak system heading toward the Central GoM at 192 hours. Is there a cool front heading toward Texas that's now steering it away in these runs?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
[quote="toad strangler"][/quote]
Hmmm, so the NHC thinks it maintains TS strength through Sunday?
Hmmm, so the NHC thinks it maintains TS strength through Sunday?
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:So the Euro 12Z so far has a weak system heading toward the Central GoM at 192 hours. Is there a cool front heading toward Texas that's now steering it away in these runs?
Doesn't look like it. WNW bend at the end toward Cameron Parish.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 312&fh=240
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Evacuations, Closing and Observations
Tropical storm watch for St Maarten has been discontinued
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Too many hurricanes to remember
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Anyone else thinking (on satellite presentation alone) that Isaac is still a TS?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Isaac looks like he's trying to run away from the shear as fast as possible. That storm is trucking.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
EasyTiger wrote:Isaac looks like he's trying to run away from the shear as fast as possible. That storm is trucking.
Last report was 20mph due west.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Tropical Storm Isaac Advisory Number 25
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR ISAAC HAVE ENDED...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 63.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092018
500 PM AST Thu Sep 13 2018
...ALL TROPICAL STORM WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR ISAAC HAVE ENDED...
...HEAVY RAIN THREAT REMAINS...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.9N 63.2W
ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM SSE OF ST. CROIX
ABOUT 510 MI...815 KM ESE OF SANTO DOMINGO DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Strong shear and mid-level dry air is forecast to persist for the
next day or so, which should cause Isaac to drop back to tropical
depression status on Friday. However, the shear is forecast to
weaken by the weekend, and moisture values are expected to rise as
the system gets deeper into the Caribbean Sea. These conditions
would normally allow for some restregthening, but the initial
character of the system is pretty weak, and it is uncertain whether
there will be much left of Isaac to take advantage of the more
conducive conditions. Model guidance has been inconsistent on the
future of Isaac, which speaks to the lack of predictability of this
situation. The bulk of the guidance show Isaac staying weak or
degenerating into a tropical wave over the next few days, so the
official forecast follows that consensus. At this point it is
just best to keep an eye on the long-range forecast on each
advisory to see if there are any changes.
next day or so, which should cause Isaac to drop back to tropical
depression status on Friday. However, the shear is forecast to
weaken by the weekend, and moisture values are expected to rise as
the system gets deeper into the Caribbean Sea. These conditions
would normally allow for some restregthening, but the initial
character of the system is pretty weak, and it is uncertain whether
there will be much left of Isaac to take advantage of the more
conducive conditions. Model guidance has been inconsistent on the
future of Isaac, which speaks to the lack of predictability of this
situation. The bulk of the guidance show Isaac staying weak or
degenerating into a tropical wave over the next few days, so the
official forecast follows that consensus. At this point it is
just best to keep an eye on the long-range forecast on each
advisory to see if there are any changes.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Isaac is trying to make a comeback tonight firing off convection closer to its LLC.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
NDG wrote:Isaac is trying to make a comeback tonight firing off convection closer to its LLC.
He better slow down if he wants that chance. He's been outrunning convection all day.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Westerly inflow has become better defined over the last few hours with the new convective burst. Watch the low clouds change direction towards the east around 2120z. Could hold together another day or two if it can maintain some convection.
https://i.imgur.com/Drrgj7i.gifv
https://i.imgur.com/Drrgj7i.gifv
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:NDG wrote:Isaac is trying to make a comeback tonight firing off convection closer to its LLC.
He better slow down if he wants that chance. He's been outrunning convection all day.
He slowed already. Down to 16 mph
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Hammy wrote:Westerly inflow has become better defined over the last few hours with the new convective burst. Watch the low clouds change direction towards the east around 2120z. Could hold together another day or two if it can maintain some convection.
https://i.imgur.com/Drrgj7i.gifv
If it can maintain convection and the shear does decrease this system will probably survive and be a gulf coast threat down the road.
Right now, I'd say 70% chance of it doing so. Possibly strong tropical storm or hurricane at that.
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
SoupBone wrote:NDG wrote:Isaac is trying to make a comeback tonight firing off convection closer to its LLC.
He better slow down if he wants that chance. He's been outrunning convection all day.
Isaac does seem to be slowing down based on the previous advisories. Was 20 mph, but now it's 16 mph.
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Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
So many forum threads - so little time. Can anyone tell me whether ANYONE in the Lesser Antilles reported any 40 mph+ sustained winds with Isaac?
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Every frame shows more and more convection firing near the center finally, buuuuut, the low level center has really degenerated over the past two days and wasn't looking that great before the towers started going up several hours ago. Is it too little too late? Will the center open up into a wave until conditions improve or barely hang on? So many crazy uncertainties with this hinging on its survival
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
I still see spin and nice convection building over top
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Re: ATL: ISAAC - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Building convection rapidly approaching DMAX.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
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GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
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