ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Rail Dawg]

I wouldn't want to be trapped in this mess, the 'dirty storm' like you mentioned. Made the wise decision of getting out while you can. The surge is going to get ugly tonight on the coast and the flooding could very well trap you in the woods.

Sage advice.

Gotta keep making sound decisions even when the siren song beckons otherwise.

Will keep analyzing and make a decision tomorrow morning.

But again... good advice.

[artist]

Scott Williams
Scott Williams
@ScottFox29
·
19m
#Breaking
reports
#WCTI
newsroom has been evacuated in
#NewBern

#NCwx
because of
#Florence
flooding
#stormsurge

[chaser1]

Well this is what makes hurricane chasing so interesting.

Took the last available Econo Lodge motel room just east of Columbia, SC.

Gonna take the first shower in 5 days. Already refilled all the diesel and grabbed a few extra gallons of water.

Tomorrow morning early will look at this thing and decide whether to head back into the zone or keep bailing to Houston.

After 30 years chasing every major hurricane one learns that just when we think we know what we’re doing the hurricane will dictate otherwise.

Well, at least Florence offered an easier "soft landing" to more easily position yourself. What kind of wind have you been able to get into since getting there?

Positioning yourself ahead of landfall is nearly always a crap-shoot with chasing. Some chases certainly don't afford that luxury of extra time by the time they make landfall. Where were you in Charlie?

[Praxus]

you have to seriously consider inland flooding due to wave after wave of rain.

I think many people are disregarding this... all the rain falling while it slowly moves inland wants to flow downhill. A Wilmington official on CNN said he's not expecting a local river to crest until tuesday.

[ronjon]

Just saw an interview on MSNBC with a reporter at Beaufort. It looked bad, heavy squall, and you could hear that loud wind wailing when it gets really high. Of course he could barely stand and was almost knocked over a few times. Hurricane force wind gusts at least.

[dizzyfish]

I wish I could remember how to post a photo here. It has been too long!

THANK YOU ALL for everything you provided me to get my friend away from Pamlico Sound! She sent me a photo a while ago that one of her neighbors took. They are surrounded by water. Literally - like up to their homes. Unfortunately, the ones that stayed (I don't think) have a clue of what is to come in the morning.

[wx247]

12.73" of rain already measured in Atlantic Beach, NC. WOW!

[Rail Dawg]

I drove through New Bern and Jacksonville before settling in the parking garage in Wilmington.

There is no way I’d make a stand in either New Bern or Jacksonville.

Gave them both the full recon and there is absolutely nowhere to go up if it floods.

If you’re going to play the game of sheltering in place you must have an exit plan.

That water rises uniformly and quickly. Seen it a dozen times. You go from “hey it’s ok” to 8 ft of surge for miles in less than an hour.

That’s why when I see that chaser getting knocked down at Top Sail Beach I shake my head remembering my younger, not-so-wise days.

Those guys truly are risking their life. I may risk mine but a few things would have to go wrong all at once for it to happen.

With those guys on the beach a simple 8 ft surge and they’re toast. No backup plan.

Rant off.

[HDGator]

12.73 inches of rain measured by USGS Rapid Deployment Gauge in Atlantic Beach.
And this is only the beginning...

[Ptarmigan]

12.73" of rain already measured in Atlantic Beach, NC. WOW!

The 40 inch or greater rainfall total looks more likely.

[wx98]

12.73" of rain already measured in Atlantic Beach, NC. WOW!

Floyd’s record in serious trouble...

[artist]

Atlantic Beach surf report

Surf height
6-8ft+
Head high + to 3 ft overhead occ. 10 ft
Tide
2.7ft
High tide 4.1ft at 10:58pm
Wind
53kts
NE (55°)
Swells
31.8ft at 12s ESE 118º
14.1ft at 8s E 82º

[AubreyStorm]

12.73" of rain already measured in Atlantic Beach, NC. WOW!

Floyd’s record in serious trouble...

[Rail Dawg]

Well, at least Florence offered an easier "soft landing" to more easily position yourself. What kind of wind have you been able to get into since getting there?

Positioning yourself ahead of landfall is nearly always a crap-shoot with chasing. Some chases certainly don't afford that luxury of extra time by the time they make landfall. Where were you in Charlie?

Had maybe 50 mph gusts in Wilmington before leaving. River was high even for low tide... not a good sign.

Was just south of Tampa for Charley. That one was a surprise wasn’t it?

[supercane4867]

Maybe a tornado hit this buoy...

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=41038

116kt gust!

Likely caused by a tornado or glitch. This number is way off compared to others within the same time frame

[Blinhart]

Atlantic Beach surf report

Surf height
6-8ft+
Head high + to 3 ft overhead occ. 10 ft
Tide
2.7ft
High tide 4.1ft at 10:58pm
Wind
53kts
NE (55°)
Swells
31.8ft at 12s ESE 118º
14.1ft at 8s E 82º

I hope there are no people there and if they are they are in Brick/Concrete buildings that are at least 4 stories high.

[artist]

I wish I could remember how to post a photo here. It has been too long!

THANK YOU ALL for everything you provided me to get my friend away from Pamlico Sound! She sent me a photo a while ago that one of her neighbors took. They are surrounded by water. Literally - like up to their homes. Unfortunately, the ones that stayed (I don't think) have a clue of what is to come in the morning.

Check your private messages

[catskillfire51]

If anyone has Periscope app there is a guy in surf city, NC live feeding right now, impressive winds and rain but not near whats to be expected.

[Blinhart]

If anyone has Periscope app there is a guy in surf city, NC live feeding right now, impressive winds and rain but not near whats to be expected.

Still just getting outer bands, it's gonna get a lot worse and for a long time.

[ronjon]

Peak gust at cape lookout 92 kts or 106 mph.

Peak gust during the measurement hour
TIME
(EDT)
7:17 pm NE ( 50 deg ) 92 kts