ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SoupBone]

Here comes the flooding disaster. She's barely moving and should stay that way for the next 3 days.

Inner eye really tightening, could be due to frictional land effects.

This is where the Harvey comments originate. If she sits and rains, like Harvey, they are in for a hell of a few days, and months and months of mess, cleanup, misery. I'm no doom and gloom guy, I've lived it. I hope she moves out quickly.

[Condor]

Unfortunately, Florence continues to intensify gradually and she has come essentially to a halt. The eyewall looks just about stationary at this hour. She is also about as large as I have seen her in her lifespan right now.

Florence just may be on the cusp of being major hurricane Cat 3hurricane once again.

Cat 3 ? Where are you getting this from ?

[eastcoastFL]

This is insane. Look at those cold cloud tops all of a sudden!

[northjaxpro]

The storm is disorganized you say? Wow I am just goibg to leave it to the rest of you all to explain this.

[eastcoastFL]

Unfortunately, Florence continues to intensify gradually and she has come essentially to a halt. The eyewall looks just about stationary at this hour. She is also about as large as I have seen her in her lifespan right now.

Florence just may be on the cusp of being major hurricane Cat 3hurricane once again.

Cat 3 ? Where are you getting this from ?

Probably from how convection seems to be firing around the center and cloud tops are cooling indicating strengthening. I don't know if its going that far but its definitely not weakening right now

[meriland29]

I'm just sayin...

[Bayousaint]

any update on those people in okrafor or whatever that island was

One of the residents was posting on Twitter before the storm today. I’m not sure how long he continued posting. Let me try to find the link- unless someone else has it handy.

Ugh. I cannot find it through the post through the search function . Would anyone happen to have the link to the island resident that was posting earlier?

[eastcoastFL]

The storm is disorganized you say? Wow I am just goibg to leave it to the rest of you all to explain this.

I see nothing disorganized or weakening at the moment.

[HDGator]

Radar is showing winds of 110mph just offshore of Wilmington in the eye wall.

Massive convection building on the west eyewall as she approaches Wilmington. That's not good for landfall; it will mix down those higher winds and cause more damage.

Its been downgraded to a cat one. I think that she's out of time to intensify regardless of all the "holy crap, she's about to blow up" posts.

If an expert can tell me I'm wrong, please redirect. I hope like hell I'm not wrong. I've never head of a storm blowing up this close to land. I'm sure an expert has seen it.

At this point, what's important (unless I really don't understand what's going on), is that this storm has been pushing a lot of water, and is going to continue to push a lot of water inland for around 24 more hours.

For people well inland, its going to be the rain combined with TS winds that causes catastrophic power outages and damage. A 50 mph wind blowing for 24 hours is worse than a 100 mph wind blowing for one hour.

I'm not an expert and I wear broccoli on my head. Please refer to NHC products when making decisions.

Don't mis-categorize my posts as "holy crap, she's about to blow up" when I posted factual information about large increases in convection on the west eyewall. I've been watching this on lvl 2 radar all day.
You may need to study how convection mixes higher velocity winds down to surface level.

[eastcoastFL]

I'm just sayin...


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/images/goes16_ir_06L_201809140443.jpg?34.0283.5

Yup...shes not ready to stop yet

[bob rulz]

It keeps LOOKING like it's strengthening, but sustained winds of that magnitude are not making it down to the surface. However, these bursts of convection are likely what's causing the higher-than-expected gusts. In reality, in a large storm whose inner core was disrupted like Florence's, we still don't truly understand the intensification processes. They don't act like most hurricanes.

[meriland29]

I don't understand how she is blowing up convection like this so incredibly... is this an illusion?

[artist]

Raven county says there have been a number of calls for rescues. On the weather channel

[artist]

Lost Brandon Clement’s feed.

[eastcoastFL]

[MississippiWx]

The core is tightening up a good bit on radar. These satellite blow-ups have been head fakes previous nights, but this one looks legit because we can see it on radar. Not so sure she isn't actually deepening a bit...need recon.

[eastcoastFL]

Wilmington is about to feel some of the strongest parts of Florence.

[artist]

A live feed from Wilmington
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1yoKMVzjpyOGQ

[eastcoastFL]

The core is tightening up a good bit on radar. These satellite blow-ups have been head fakes previous nights, but this one looks legit because we can see it on radar. Not so sure she isn't actually deepening a bit...need recon.

Is recon out now? I agree. Definitely need further data.

[northjaxpro]

No way on God's green earth that Florence is a "disorganized" tropical cyclone as an earlier poster stated a page or so back.