WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Latest microwave

Haima and Mangkhut are both the 22nd named storms of their respective typhoon seasons.

We're ahead of schedule. I don't know what the 2018's super October would offer.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

We're ahead of schedule. I don't know what the 2018's super October would offer.

I'm actually more impressed with the fact that we've had at least three typhoons with >30 ACE and that Mangkhut could reach 50 early next week. The number of storms itself doesn't captivate me, it's the ACE and longevity at high intensities. Correct me if I'm wrong but it has been a category 5 for 2.75 days (12 advisories) already, the second-longest in the 21st century tying, with Ioke and Fengshen but behind Chaba. Typhoons Joan and Fengshen have been the longest to have sustained super typhoon intensity or greater (5.00 days), but only 2.75 days as a category 5. One more advisory at category five and Mangkhut would break records for the 2000s and beyond. Mangkhut looks stronger now due to the warming of the eye; it is torching!

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 140900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING
NR 30//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 15
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUD TOPS IN STY 26W HAVE WARMED SLIGHTLY OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS, AND THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME OBLONG, WITH A THINNER
BAND OF CONVECTION TO THE NORTHWEST. A 140444Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS CONCENTRIC EYEWALLS AND THE BEGINNING OF ANOTHER
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON THE 30NM EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ASSESSED
AT 145 KNOTS, BETWEEN THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF
T7.5 (155 KTS), THE RJTD ESTIMATE OF T7.0 (140 KTS), AND THE KNES
ESTIMATE OF T6.5 (127 KTS), BASED ON THE WARMING CLOUD TOPS AND
INITIATION OF THE ERC, WHICH WILL LEAD TO WEAKENING AS THE PRIMARY
EYEWALL IS STARVED OF INFLOW AND THE OUTER RING FURTHER FROM THE
CENTER BECOMES THE DOMINANT EYEWALL. A 140459Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF
142 KTS SUPPORTS THE INTENSITY ASSESSMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIE IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
WITH STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, BUT THE TUTT CELL FAR TO THE EAST IS NO
LONGER ENHANCING ITS OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, A WEAK UPPER-LEVEL
ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO IMPINGE UPON OUTFLOW IN THE NORTHWESTERN
QUADRANT. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS LOW AND SSTS AND OHC REMAIN
SUPPORTIVE. STY 26W CONTINUES TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) ENTRENCHED TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 26W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 72 UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
MAKE LANDFALL AS A VERY INTENSE SUPER TYPHOON ALONG THE NORTHEAST
COAST OF LUZON JUST AFTER TAU 12. ADDITIONAL NEAR-TERM WEAKENING IS
POSSIBLE BEFORE LANDFALL AS STY 26W PROCEEDS THROUGH ITS EYEWALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE. AFTER MAKING LANDFALL, THE SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN
SIGNIFICANTLY AS IT INTERACTS WITH THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF
NORTHERN LUZON. STY 26W WILL REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA (SCS)
JUST PRIOR TO TAU 24 AS A 105 KT SYSTEM. A PERIOD OF SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST IN THE SCS BETWEEN TAUS 24 AND 48 AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES OVER WARM (28-29 CELSIUS) WATERS AND UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW REMAINS FAVORABLE. STY 26W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL
BETWEEN HONG KONG AND THE LEIZHOU PENINSULA AFTER TAU 48, WITH HWRF
THE NORTHERN OUTLIER MAKING LANDFALL CLOSER TO HONG KONG. DYNAMIC
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN EXTREMELY TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH TAU 72, WITH
LESS THAN 15NM SPREAD AT LANDFALL, INCREASING TO 79NM AT TAU 48,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, STY 26W WILL CONTINUE ON A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
STR, WEAKENING RAPIDLY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN OF NORTHERN
VIETNAM, CHINA, AND NORTHERN MYANMAR, DISSIPATING BY TAU 120.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT IN THE LATER TAUS, WITH
SOME MODELS LOSING THE SYSTEM AND OTHERS BRINGING IT TO THE
NORTHWEST. OVERALL HOWEVER, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST THROUGH TAU 96, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE THEREAFTER.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

66 straight hours

[1900hurricane]

66 straight hours

https://imageshack.com/a/img921/6171/HRNCqD.png

Hmmm...

[xtyphooncyclonex]

People here talked about Guam more than the US. It points out how similar we are to Guam---it's basically a more utopic version of the Philippines. Similar culture, history, language, and Spanish influence. We're both accustomed to powerful typhoons but Guam is better prepared. A category five is about to strike land (or at least brush it) and that would mean this is no joke. I would like to add that PAGASA should use a proper table---probably mimic JMA or the NHC at least, and make T6.5 (125-130 kts for 1-min, 100 kts for 1-min) the threshold for STY intensity and NOT >T7.5!!

[euro6208]

One last ditch for strengthening?

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1040562696565866496



 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1040573108036329472

[ejeraldmc]

Tornado in Marikina

https://www.facebook.com/DizonKnows.Off ... 532352493/

[xtyphooncyclonex]

There we go. 72 consecutive hours at category 5 intensity.

26W MANGKHUT 180914 1200 17.4N 124.1E WPAC 145 906

[euro6208]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1040574592270704640

[xtyphooncyclonex]

No PSWS or Gale Warning despite TS-force winds??? What in the world???

[Highteeld]

Really blowing up on Dvorak right now.

[euro6208]

Full text...

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 09140944
SATCON: MSLP = 905 hPa MSW = 147 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 142.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 134 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 215 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -2.9 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 918 hPa 130 knots Scene: CDO Date: SEP141210
CIMSS AMSU: 910 hPa 144 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 09130936
ATMS: 899.8 hPa 158.2 knots Date: 09140500
SSMIS: 898.0 hPa 156.0 knots Date: 09140944
CIRA ATMS: 922 hPa 120 knots Date: 09140500

[euro6208]

BT was at 145 knots but this is strengthening rapidly. Look at how warm the eye is and the ever expanding cloud tops. I'd give this 160 or higher. What a monster.

[Highteeld]

Madness. Just pure insanity what is going on right now.

[mrbagyo]

Godamnit. Really mad at myself now. I should have been there. Damnit.

[cebuboy]

Impressive storm. In northern Cebu (my location), we can feel some rains and gusts from outer rainbands.

I really hope this is not as bad as Haiyan for those in the landfall path. I read in the news and we are more prepared this time.

[doomhaMwx]

James Reynolds being interviewed on Philippine TV.

[Highteeld]

Tapping into the warmest water in the world right now.