WPAC: MANGKHUT - Post-Tropical

[shah83]

Are you looking at a track with smaller time increments than 12hr, NotoSans?

[Joe_1]

TROPICAL CYCLONE MANGKHUT
(2018-09-15 07:15:28 UTC)
==========================
HKO:
150300Z 18.3N 120.1E 105KT
(+012H) 19.5N 117.3E ---KT
(+024H) 20.8N 114.2E 113KT
(+036H) 21.7N 110.7E ---KT
(+048H) 22.3N 107.4E 65KT
(+060H) 22.7N 104.4E ---KT
(+072H) 22.8N 101.6E 22KT
JTWC:
150000Z 18.1N 120.6E 115KT
(+012H) 19.1N 117.8E 110KT
(+024H) 20.3N 114.8E 115KT
(+036H) 21.4N 111.5E 115KT
(+048H) 22.2N 108.4E 60KT
(+072H) 23.3N 103.0E 20KT
JMA:
150600Z 18.5N 119.7E 90KT
(+012H) 19.8N 116.9E 85KT
(+024H) 21.2N 113.5E 80KT
(+048H) 22.8N 107.0E 45KT
(+072H) 23.0N 102.7E ---KT
NMC:
150600Z 18.5N 119.6E 93KT
(+012H) 19.8N 116.6E 97KT
(+024H) 21.1N 113.6E 101KT
(+036H) 22.2N 109.8E 58KT
(+048H) 23.0N 106.8E 39KT
(+060H) 23.0N 104.5E 31KT
(+072H) 23.6N 102.3E 27KT
CWB:
150600Z 18.5N 119.6E 93KT
(+012H) 19.9N 116.7E 93KT
(+024H) 21.5N 113.4E 84KT
(+048H) 22.6N 106.7E 39KT
KMA:
150600Z 18.6N 119.7E 91KT
(+024H) 20.6N 113.5E 78KT
(+048H) 22.5N 106.9E 52KT
(+072H) 23.2N 101.1E 27KT
PAGASA:
150000Z 18.1N 120.8E 95KT
(+024H) 20.3N 115.0E ---KT
(+048H) 22.4N 108.5E ---KT

[Laurie]

Hi, sorry to bother everyone. It’s a busy time. Anyone willing to make an educated guess on how this will affect Hong Kong? I’m on a flight to Hong Kong as I type this! Thank you in advance!

A little hard to tell at the moment since a small change in the storm motion angle could make a stark difference in sensible impacts. Looks like current progs have it passing a little to the south, but the chances of seeing storm force winds are pretty good when it makes its closest approach on the afternoon of the 16th locally. Any northerly trend could bring typhoon conditions into the area, so its definitely something to keep an eye on.

Thank you very much! I appreciate it!!

[Joe_1]

Now the friction is easing wont be surprised to see the typhoon get highly organised again quite quickly.


https://imgur.com/czfHgsG




https://imgur.com/v0zcZLg

[NotoSans]

Are you looking at a track with smaller time increments than 12hr, NotoSans?

I looked at the 6-hourly forecast from the ECMWF.

[NotoSans]

Mangkhut has developed a very large outer Eyewall after its interaction with Luzon (pretty common occurrence). What happened with the recon?

The recon aircraft has just departed from HKG, but not sure if I can grab some data as HKO doesn’t publicly publish them.

[NotoSans]

Unlike Hato which is a compact system, Mangkhut has an extensive wind field. Winds over Hong Kong will definitely be stronger than that brought by Hato if the eastward shift in models continue.

[euro6208]

Down to a Cat 3.

WDPN31 PGTW 150900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT) WARNING NR 34//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 26W (MANGKHUT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 246 NM NORTH-
NORTHWEST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON
RECENT FIXES FROM RJTD AND PGTW WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INTENSITY
IS CONSISTENT WITH A CONSENSUS OF SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND OBJECTIVE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 26W HAS
REORGANIZED A BIT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS AFTER EMERGING INTO THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA FOLLOWING PASSAGE OVER THE
ISLAND OF LUZON. THE LARGE SYSTEM IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE TO
THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. NEAR-TERM FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING, CONSISTENT WITH NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE, AND THE
TRACK HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TY 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THROUGHOUT
THE 72 HOUR FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH THE PREVIOUSLY-DISRUPTED
CIRCULATION IS CONTINUING TO RECONSOLIDATE, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW AND PASSAGE OVER WARM WATER SHOULD
ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY IN THE NEAR-TERM. THE SYSTEM
IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION, LIKELY BEGINNING
AROUND TAU 24. PASSAGE OVER LAND IN THE MEDIUM RANGE WILL RESULT IN
DISSIPATION BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT,
LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE JTWC TRACK.//
NNNN

[Joe_1]

https://www.yr.no/place/Hong_Kong/Other/Hong_Kong/
YR is ECWMF's forecast in layman's terms
https://imgur.com/zjeDOwJ


https://imgur.com/zjeDOwJ
Hong kong forecast

[euro6208]

Mighty impressive intensification.

[euro6208]

[1900hurricane]

TROPICAL CYCLONE MANGKHUT
(2018-09-15 07:15:28 UTC)
==========================
HKO:
150300Z 18.3N 120.1E 105KT
(+012H) 19.5N 117.3E ---KT
(+024H) 20.8N 114.2E 113KT
(+036H) 21.7N 110.7E ---KT
(+048H) 22.3N 107.4E 65KT
(+060H) 22.7N 104.4E ---KT
(+072H) 22.8N 101.6E 22KT
JTWC:
150000Z 18.1N 120.6E 115KT
(+012H) 19.1N 117.8E 110KT
(+024H) 20.3N 114.8E 115KT
(+036H) 21.4N 111.5E 115KT
(+048H) 22.2N 108.4E 60KT
(+072H) 23.3N 103.0E 20KT
JMA:
150600Z 18.5N 119.7E 90KT
(+012H) 19.8N 116.9E 85KT
(+024H) 21.2N 113.5E 80KT
(+048H) 22.8N 107.0E 45KT
(+072H) 23.0N 102.7E ---KT
NMC:
150600Z 18.5N 119.6E 93KT
(+012H) 19.8N 116.6E 97KT
(+024H) 21.1N 113.6E 101KT
(+036H) 22.2N 109.8E 58KT
(+048H) 23.0N 106.8E 39KT
(+060H) 23.0N 104.5E 31KT
(+072H) 23.6N 102.3E 27KT
CWB:
150600Z 18.5N 119.6E 93KT
(+012H) 19.9N 116.7E 93KT
(+024H) 21.5N 113.4E 84KT
(+048H) 22.6N 106.7E 39KT
KMA:
150600Z 18.6N 119.7E 91KT
(+024H) 20.6N 113.5E 78KT
(+048H) 22.5N 106.9E 52KT
(+072H) 23.2N 101.1E 27KT
PAGASA:
150000Z 18.1N 120.8E 95KT
(+024H) 20.3N 115.0E ---KT
(+048H) 22.4N 108.5E ---KT

That's a cool resource. Where'd you get that comparison from?

[cycloneye]

James is fine. Now we wait for Josh.

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1040912937106464768

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1040913909081878528

[1900hurricane]

SATCON has fallen below 100 kt. Luzon took quite a toll on it unsurprisingly.

[Joe_1]

http://www.typhoon2000.ph/multi/?name=MANGKHUT
Plain-text forecast data of TC MANGKHUT

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1040939990207942656

[supercane4867]

City of Shenzhen and Zhuhai in Mainland China have issued red typhoon warning(highest level). HKO also mentioned there is a possibility of issuing Hurricane Signal No.10 in the coming days.

[dexterlabio]

I suppose the effects of Mangkhut is already being felt in parts of Taiwan and even in SE China..can someone confirm this?

[Highteeld]