ATL: FLORENCE - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

The fire hose bringing in warm wet gulf stream air looks like it is set up well

[Powellrm]

Looks like the SW turn happened over land...

NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..

"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWx/status/1040928445755285504

[PTPatrick]

Dang those feeders look bad. “I think we’re gonna need a bigger boat”

[nascarfan999]

Looks like the SW turn happened over land...

NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..

"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?

I get your point, but Tulsa Oklahoma has a university called the Hurricane as well. It seems like officials did a pretty good job as far as I can tell, but there's always going to be some people who do not take it seriously.

[caneman]

Looks like the SW turn happened over land...

NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..

"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?

Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.

[CronkPSU]

NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..

"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?

Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.

Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits

[sittingduck]

"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?

Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.

Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits

Based on this it would be http://www.stormfax.com/hurstate.htm

[AlabamaDave]

Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits

Yes it is, and barely behind Louisiana. From https://www.cnn.com/2017/09/11/us/hurri ... index.html

[wxman57]

Looking at that data, it doesn't look like there is a malfunction overmeasuring rain because the buckets are dumping out prematurely (the stated reason). First, the wind only got up to about 50 mph there, which is not all that high. Second, the rain rate dropped to near zero at peak wind, suggesting if anything it's undermeasuring in high wind. Third, the high rates have continued with 30 mph wind and surely that's not problematic with an official rain gauge?

Note that the issue was with certain USGS rapidly-deployed gauges, not with any permanently mounted NWS gauges. The portable tipping-bucket gauges were affected by wind. Even 30 or 40 mph winds could cause issues with such gauges as they could be jostled around by even lower wind speeds. This would cause the buckets to tip prematurely, over-measuring the rainfall

[Ptarmigan]

Looking at that data, it doesn't look like there is a malfunction overmeasuring rain because the buckets are dumping out prematurely (the stated reason). First, the wind only got up to about 50 mph there, which is not all that high. Second, the rain rate dropped to near zero at peak wind, suggesting if anything it's undermeasuring in high wind. Third, the high rates have continued with 30 mph wind and surely that's not problematic with an official rain gauge?

Note that the issue was with certain USGS rapidly-deployed gauges, not with any permanently mounted NWS gauges. The portable tipping-bucket gauges were affected by wind. Even 30 or 40 mph winds could cause issues with such gauges as they could be jostled around by even lower wind speeds. This would cause the buckets to tip prematurely, over-measuring the rainfall

Regardless of gauge problems or not, over 40 inches is likely. GFS forecasted as high as 78 inches of rain!

[Powellrm]

NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..

"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?

I get your point, but Tulsa Oklahoma has a university called the Hurricane as well. It seems like officials did a pretty good job as far as I can tell, but there's always going to be some people who do not take it seriously.

Not to get off track, but the Tulsa mascot of hurricane is in reference to a tornado, and they went with hurricane because there was some kind of naming issue I believe.

Anyways, I would say that many people here too it seriously. A good portion of wilmington evacuated.

[caneman]

"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?

Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.

Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits

North and South Carolina are 4th so they do get their fair share of hits

[toad strangler]

Nimbus is partially correct , although Carolinas get a fair share, they're not in the top 3:
The top 10 counties list mostly jibes with the three most hurricane-prone states in the country: Since 1851, the top three states for hurricane landfalls are Florida (114), Texas (63) and Louisiana (54), according to data from the Atlantic Oceanographic and Meteorological Laboratory in Miami. Courtesy USA Today.

Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits

North and South Carolina are 4th so they do get their fair share of hits

I know this is getting OT but Louisiana doesn’t exactly have a huge coastline like Texas and Florida. Looks like LA gets more bang for the buck.

[syfr]

Looks like the SW turn happened over land...

NHC official track predicted that, along with the EWRC expanding the wind fields prior to landfall.
NC gets so few hurricanes its just human nature that many were caught off guard with the flooding and power outages. Looks like Florence is beginning to dry up a little for South Carolina but wherever those feeder bans streaming in over the coastline occur you are going to see rain rates of a couple inches an hour..

"Nc gets so few hurricanes"

...you realize that North Carolina has a professional hockey team called the "carolina Hurricanes", right?

I was going to say "that's news to us in NC".

[NC George]

Out of curiosity...is N Carolina #4? I would assume so with so many OBX hits

North and South Carolina are 4th so they do get their fair share of hits

I know this is getting OT but Louisiana doesn’t exactly have a huge coastline like Texas and Florida. Looks like LA gets more bang for the buck.

Neither does NC, and we're only 3 behind LA. Furthermore, that's NC alone that' right behind LA. If you were to combing the Carolinas, we'd be #2. Oh, and LA is right ahead of TX in coastline length you you do it the short method, and double if you do it the long method.

[toad strangler]

North and South Carolina are 4th so they do get their fair share of hits

I know this is getting OT but Louisiana doesn’t exactly have a huge coastline like Texas and Florida. Looks like LA gets more bang for the buck.

Neither does NC, and we're only 3 behind LA. Furthermore, that's NC alone that' right behind LA. If you were to combing the Carolinas, we'd be #2. Oh, and LA is right ahead of TX in coastline length you you do it the short method, and double if you do it the long method.

Not discounting NC by any means. You have the cyclone “cow catcher” in the Outer Banks. BTW, I don’t agree with your interpretation of the LA coast as it pertains to cyclone landfalls but that’s a debate for a different thread.

[Incoming!]

Um... where exactly was landfall for the PA direct hit? Heh heh...

And 2 struck along the approximate 18 miles of New Hampshire coastline? Hmmm...

[Ubuntwo]

Um... where exactly was landfall for the PA direct hit? Heh heh...

And 2 struck along the approximate 18 miles of New Hampshire coastline? Hmmm...

I assume the definition is amount of hurricanes to pass over, not make landfall on, which would explain PA and NH. According to the NHC two hurricanes passed over New Hampshire, a category 1 and a category 2.

[NDG]

According to radar estimates up to 45" have fallen in parts of central coastal NC, even if it is over doing it by 20% rainfalls in the 30+" is not out of the question