2018 WPAC Season

[euro6208]

Looks like EURO dropped the remnants of Olivia redeveloping over the WPAC now for 2 runs.

GFS still null...

[euro6208]

Latest model runs, GFS and EURO has the basin dormant for a while until a potential crosser around the end/start of Sept/Oct.

How strong when it crosses is up for debate.

[euro6208]

I had to post this again since they are more common here than in any other basin.

1952258N18178 1952091718 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952296N06152 1952102600 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952363N07170 1952123112 160.0 28W:HESTER
1953219N08155 1953081118 160.0 08W:NINA
1955346N06142 1955121512 180.0 22W:RUTH
1956207N13145 1956073006 160.0 06W:WANDA
1957311N06171 1957111606 160.0 20W:LOLA
1958143N06158 1958052900 160.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958240N08146 1958090118 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958263N13148 1958092412 175.0 15W:IDA
1959236N12139 1959082906 170.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959254N14148 1959091506 165.0 SARAH
1959263N11160 1959092312 165.0 VERA
1961248N18155 1961091112 155.0 PAMELA
1961250N07173 1961091200 185.0 NANCY
1961276N22152 1961100706 180.0 VIOLET
1962224N11151 1962081618 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962311N06154 1962110900 160.0 KAREN
1964247N09159 1964090706 170.0 SALLY
1964319N08141 1964111806 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964344N06153 1964121218 170.0 OPAL
1965161N09151 1965061706 160.0 DINAH
1966171N09151 1966062600 170.0 KIT
1967241N15170 1967090312 155.0 OPAL
1967283N11150 1967101418 160.0 CARLA
1971311N06141 1971111118 155.0 IRMA
1973274N10137 1973100600 160.0 NORA
1975319N08146 1975111912 160.0 JUNE
1979275N05159 1979101206 165.0 TIP
1984294N04163 1984102612 155.0 VANESSA

Recon ends in 1987

1992277N16140 1992101318 155.0 YVETTE
1992318N06182 1992112100 160.0 GAY
1995293N05177 1995110100 155.0 ANGELA
1997283N07177 1997101718 160.0 IVAN
1997284N04179 1997101706 160.0 JOAN
1997299N07169 1997110112 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997333N06194 1997121800 160.0 PAKA:PAKA
1998281N11151 1998101312 155.0 ZEB
2000125N06136 2000050918 155.0 DAMREY
2001347N04162 2001122300 155.0 FAXAI
2004164N06139 2004061606 155.0 DIANMU
2004230N09172 2004082300 155.0 CHABA
2009325N06148 2009112512 155.0 NIDA
2010285N13145 2010101712 160.0 MEGI (Should be 175 knots based on recon. Flight level winds supported surface winds of 200 mph sustained)
2012 Sanba 155.0
2013 Haiyan 170.0 (860 mb and 185 to 195 knots?)
2014 Vongfong 155.0
2014 Nuri 155.0
2014 Hagupit 155.0
2015 Soudelor 155.0
2016 Nepartak 155.0
2016 Meranti 170.0
2018 Mangkhut 155.0


There were 8 from the 90's, 6 from 2000 to 2010 and already 8 for this decade. (Satellite)

The record is 13 from the 50's. 12 from the 60's. (Recon)

2017 is the first year since 2011 to not feature one and breaks a 4 year streak.

Mangkhut joins the list. Just imagine how much more and how much stronger they would be if recon never ended in 1987?

Mangkhut thread

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

Possible MJO next month.





Kelvin Wave should be suppressed.

[euro6208]

New EURO weeklies suggesting a quiet October.

[doomhaMwx]

A few EPS members have a typhoon passing over Luzon within the next 10 days. I can't determine though if this is 92W, or another system being sniffed by the model?

[euro6208]

There is an area of possible TC development in the West Pacific, just west of Guam and the Mariana Islands. Warm SSTs and low shear create a favorable environment for TC formation, but model guidance is uncertain about development potential. The deterministic GFS creates a TC just west of Guam, which it forecasts to track north and become caught in the extratropical flow before reaching Japan by the end of the Week-1 period. The ECMWF is similar, but forms a weaker TC further west. The GFS ensemble members are spread over about 20 degrees of longitude, suggesting significant positional uncertainty. The models remain split about the potential for TC development just west of the Week-1 region during the early part of Week-2, which we have included in our forecast. Interested parties are encouraged to monitor JTWC's updates for the latest information over the next few days.

[euro6208]

92W THREAD

Potential sleeper. Models make this into a monster typhoon.

[euro6208]

Full basin view...

[euro6208]

Most models for days has a secondary TC developing right behind Trami.

Tropical Depression 28W is having a major impact on weather in the
Marianas in the short term. After 28W moves away, the NavGem brings
in a ridge. All other models extend a trough from 28W which then
spins up a secondary tropical cyclone east of the Marianas. It is a
monsoon tail feeding into this that is responsible for the mega rain
event we have been anticipating. While this seems a bit far fetched,
could not remove it at this time. We will have to wait until we can
see if this secondary circulation actually forms.

[euro6208]

Most models for days has a secondary TC developing right behind Trami.

Tropical Depression 28W is having a major impact on weather in the
Marianas in the short term. After 28W moves away, the NavGem brings
in a ridge. All other models extend a trough from 28W which then
spins up a secondary tropical cyclone east of the Marianas. It is a
monsoon tail feeding into this that is responsible for the mega rain
event we have been anticipating. While this seems a bit far fetched,
could not remove it at this time. We will have to wait until we can
see if this secondary circulation actually forms.

Losing model support.

[euro6208]

Seeing signs of a low latitude system passing near the Marianas headed towards the P.I sea. last week of September, early October...

[euro6208]

The globals really adamant on this system as it passes near or over the Marianas.

[euro6208]

Most models for days has a secondary TC developing right behind Trami.

Tropical Depression 28W is having a major impact on weather in the
Marianas in the short term. After 28W moves away, the NavGem brings
in a ridge. All other models extend a trough from 28W which then
spins up a secondary tropical cyclone east of the Marianas. It is a
monsoon tail feeding into this that is responsible for the mega rain
event we have been anticipating. While this seems a bit far fetched,
could not remove it at this time. We will have to wait until we can
see if this secondary circulation actually forms.

Losing model support.

93W THREAD

[euro6208]

The globals really adamant on this system as it passes near or over the Marianas.

94W THREAD

[euro6208]

The globals really adamant on this system as it passes near or over the Marianas.

94W THREAD

Looks like i was wrong. The next major system will originate near the equator southeast of Guam.

[euro6208]

Literally the whole globals on it. EURO and GFS makes it quite strong. Guam and the Northern Marianas may need to watch out for this one as intensity wise, the models have it weak (EURO, JMA} vs strong (NAVGEM, GFS, CMC).

[Hayabusa]

Already showing signs of increasing vorticity between below 10N,155-160E (pre-95W)? And as for model forecast a very low latitude rider but poleward then recurve again? , but it depends on how the STR to the north rebuilds back if ever after Trami recurves

There's also a vorticity around 20N,160E which if develops as models show in the near term, would make the STR retreat more back to the east

[1900hurricane]

Looks like the NH twin of the SPac's 91P.