2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
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- EquusStorm
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Well if not even another depression develops through the rest of 2018 and the season IS over in mid September, it'd be the earliest end since 1855. I put much less stock in climatology than some do, but it would be almost unprecedented and I can't buy into that.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
- toad strangler
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
The season isn't done. The Cape Verde season pretty much is. But THE basin season? No.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Who told SAL it was party time again?
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
toad strangler wrote:The season isn't done. The Cape Verde season pretty much is. But THE basin season? No.
We just need one good cool front to slowly begin to close the Texas door. This is just about the time Florida needs to start really paying attention.
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- EquusStorm
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Yeah no doubt the CV season is toast now but it's almost time for it to be ending now soon anyway, heh. Almost time for home grown stuff and probably subtropical storm numba six
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
k
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
It's important to remember that even if the Cape Verde season is over (it may or may not be over now) the relevance of African easterly waves is not over. Late-season tropical cyclones that form over the Western Caribbean sometimes develop from tropical waves that move into the Western Caribbean, or form due to a combination of a tropical wave and other factors. Examples include Opal, Lili (1996), Mitch, Rina (2011), and Sandy.
So if the MJO is favored to produce enhanced upward motion over Africa in late September into October, that would likely enhance the tropical wave train, which would have implications for "homebrew" development.
It's also worth noting that Western Caribbean and GOM development are highly sensitive to the low-level wind anomalies west of Central America, which vary with MJO phase [see Maloney and Hartmann 2000; https://atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/Ma ... cience.pdf]. The ECMWF weeklies suggest the MJO to remain in Phases 8 and 1 through at least October 15 (obviously this could change). These phases are associated with anomalous low-level westerlies east of Central America, which would favor Western Caribbean and/or GOM development.
So if the MJO is favored to produce enhanced upward motion over Africa in late September into October, that would likely enhance the tropical wave train, which would have implications for "homebrew" development.
It's also worth noting that Western Caribbean and GOM development are highly sensitive to the low-level wind anomalies west of Central America, which vary with MJO phase [see Maloney and Hartmann 2000; https://atmos.washington.edu/~dennis/Ma ... cience.pdf]. The ECMWF weeklies suggest the MJO to remain in Phases 8 and 1 through at least October 15 (obviously this could change). These phases are associated with anomalous low-level westerlies east of Central America, which would favor Western Caribbean and/or GOM development.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Area to keep an eye on with be the west Carib as it usually is as we get into early oct.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1041815772580982786?s=21
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1041815772580982786?s=21
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- toad strangler
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
We’ve had some real nasty hurricanes have cyclogenesis in the western Caribbean in late September through November from the monsoon trough and here are examples
2012 Sandy
2008 Omar
2008 Paloma
2005 Wilma
2005 Beta
2005 Stan
2001 Michelle
1999 Irene
1998 Mitch
1995 Opal
And a host of others
2012 Sandy
2008 Omar
2008 Paloma
2005 Wilma
2005 Beta
2005 Stan
2001 Michelle
1999 Irene
1998 Mitch
1995 Opal
And a host of others
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Look at this SAL explosion! No one told him his time should have been drawing to a close.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
That will put a damper on any potential MDR development for sure. W. Caribbean the area to be watched based on recent model rumblings.
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
SconnieCane wrote::uarrow: That will put a damper on any potential MDR development for sure. W. Caribbean the area to be watched based on recent model rumblings.
There is a lane in the MDR at the moment. A very low latitude lane. Between 5 and 10 degrees.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
toad strangler wrote:SconnieCane wrote::uarrow: That will put a damper on any potential MDR development for sure. W. Caribbean the area to be watched based on recent model rumblings.
There is a lane in the MDR at the moment. A very low latitude lane. Between 5 and 10 degrees.
http://i218.photobucket.com/albums/cc107/softparade1313/GFS_1.png
Yep, that low latitude lane could easily support the development of a small system with a low westward track. Wouldn't be the first time a tropical cyclone developed this year within an ideal "goldilocks zone" in close proximity to a good deal of SAL around it.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Global Tropics Hazards is hilighting the Western Caribbean and East Pacific off the coast of Mexico for week two from September 26th-October 2nd.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
[Tweet]https://mobile.twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1042401458619080704[/Tweet]
For the life of me I can't figure out why the twitter links are not working when pasting from mobile but have no issue on a PC.
For the life of me I can't figure out why the twitter links are not working when pasting from mobile but have no issue on a PC.
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
toad strangler wrote:https://mobile.twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1042401458619080704
For the life of me I can't figure out why the twitter links are not working when pasting from mobile but have no issue on a PC.
https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1042401458619080704
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
Let's see if this turns out to be true. Still not buying it yet.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1042871402762665990
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1042871402762665990
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2018 Indicators: SST's / MSLP / Sal / Steering / Shear / Instability (Graphic updates at first post)
blp wrote:Let's see if this turns out to be true. Still not buying it yet.
https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1042871402762665990
Why no buy?
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