2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- SouthFLTropics
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SouthFLTropics wrote:12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.
So far it's not bringing the time in its probably one of the many phantom tc's the gfs creates on a daily basis.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.
So far it's not bringing the time in its probably one of the many phantom tc's the gfs creates on a daily basis.
GFS has got much better this year in not ramping up phantom storms
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.
So far it's not bringing the time in its probably one of the many phantom tc's the gfs creates on a daily basis.
Could be but it does have a bunch of human met support on Twitter
FWIW the Test GFS has that low runner African origin storm again as in the 6z run. I can find it out to 180 only right now.
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
toad strangler wrote:SFLcane wrote:SouthFLTropics wrote:12z GFS has a tropical cyclone heading NNW over the Cayman Islands at the end of the run. Long range still showing good support for Caribbean development late next week.
So far it's not bringing the time in its probably one of the many phantom tc's the gfs creates on a daily basis.
Could be but it does have a bunch of human met support on Twitter
FWIW the Test GFS has that low runner African origin storm again as in the 6z run. I can find it out to 180 only right now.
The funny thing is that is the same system/energy the both the GFS Operational model and test model show but the difference is that the Operational waits until the Western Caribbean while the test GFS shows it popping in the MDR, we may not know anything until the weekend
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The 12zEuro is showing low pressure forming in the western Caribbean in 10 days, based on this I believe the GFS tropical system in the western Caribbean may not be a phantom
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hurricaneman wrote:The 12zEuro is showing low pressure forming in the western Caribbean in 10 days, based on this I believe the GFS tropical system in the western Caribbean may not be a phantom
If it's the same system the Euro is much more progressive as the GFS does not consider it until 290 plus hours.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
The new 12Z EPS suggests little chance for a CONUS hit or hit just about anywhere over the next 2 weeks. OTOH, the GEFS keep showing something in the W Caribbean though this could be due to a GFS bias there.
Maybe we'll get a long much deserved break as so many want. Who knows?
Up next Happy Hour GFS/GEFS fwiw.
Maybe we'll get a long much deserved break as so many want. Who knows?
Up next Happy Hour GFS/GEFS fwiw.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
So far, it seems like only the GFS is onboard with this Western Caribbean System.
Thanks!
By any chance, does anyone know where I can find the UKMET Model Graphics?
HurricaneEric wrote:Abdullah wrote:Is this to-be West Caribbean Storm going to be related to Ex-Isaac in any way?
No not at all. Models are seeing this in the long range (300+ hours out).
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Thanks!
By any chance, does anyone know where I can find the UKMET Model Graphics?
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Abdullah wrote:So far, it seems like only the GFS is onboard with this Western Caribbean System.HurricaneEric wrote:Abdullah wrote:Is this to-be West Caribbean Storm going to be related to Ex-Isaac in any way?
No not at all. Models are seeing this in the long range (300+ hours out).
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Thanks!
By any chance, does anyone know where I can find the UKMET Model Graphics?
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cyclonephase/ukm/fcst/index.html
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
LarryWx wrote:The new 12Z EPS suggests little chance for a CONUS hit or hit just about anywhere over the next 2 weeks. OTOH, the GEFS keep showing something in the W Caribbean though this could be due to a GFS bias there.
Maybe we'll get a long much deserved break as so many want. Who knows?
Up next Happy Hour GFS/GEFS fwiw.
The Euro and it’s ensembles don’t go beyond 10 days which is why it shows nothing as this isn’t supposed to start until after 10 days but what the Euro does show is lowering pressures at 10 days which could mean cyclogenesis at day 11 if the Euro went that far
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18z GFS closes a low pressure area just east of the Lesser Antilles from 12 to 84hrs.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Hurricaneman wrote:LarryWx wrote:The new 12Z EPS suggests little chance for a CONUS hit or hit just about anywhere over the next 2 weeks. OTOH, the GEFS keep showing something in the W Caribbean though this could be due to a GFS bias there.
Maybe we'll get a long much deserved break as so many want. Who knows?
Up next Happy Hour GFS/GEFS fwiw.
The Euro and it’s ensembles don’t go beyond 10 days which is why it shows nothing as this isn’t supposed to start until after 10 days but what the Euro does show is lowering pressures at 10 days which could mean cyclogenesis at day 11 if the Euro went that far
If you pay for them, yes they do.
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- Emmett_Brown
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
18Z GFS goes crazy with the remnants (or some derivative energy) of Florence, and stalls it in the middle of the Atlantic. Would be some extra ACE if that happened.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Emmett_Brown wrote:18Z GFS goes crazy with the remnants (or some derivative energy) of Florence, and stalls it in the middle of the Atlantic. Would be some extra ACE if that happened.
I hope it doesn't take a NC track ala Florence.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
TheStormExpert wrote:Hurricaneman wrote:LarryWx wrote:The new 12Z EPS suggests little chance for a CONUS hit or hit just about anywhere over the next 2 weeks. OTOH, the GEFS keep showing something in the W Caribbean though this could be due to a GFS bias there.
Maybe we'll get a long much deserved break as so many want. Who knows?
Up next Happy Hour GFS/GEFS fwiw.
The Euro and it’s ensembles don’t go beyond 10 days which is why it shows nothing as this isn’t supposed to start until after 10 days but what the Euro does show is lowering pressures at 10 days which could mean cyclogenesis at day 11 if the Euro went that far
If you pay for them, yes they do.
Don't even have to pay for them.. weather.us. has them for FREE!!!!!
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
CMC is the most definitive of backing off a piece of Florence around to South and North Carolina with a final remember me shot. While it’s not like it could do that much more damage as a repeat TS after the rivers crest, it could certainly hamper people’s cleanup and recovery.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91900&fh=6
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91900&fh=6
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Steve wrote:CMC is the most definitive of backing off a piece of Florence around to South and North Carolina with a final remember me shot. While it’s not like it could do that much more damage as a repeat TS after the rivers crest, it could certainly hamper people’s cleanup and recovery.
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 91900&fh=6
I call it Florence’s baby
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Not much to see here GFS all over the place in regards to development. Still not bringing the time in...it's another phantom most likely
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
SFLcane wrote:Not much to see here GFS all over the place in regards to development. Still not bringing the time in...it's another phantom most likely
https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/09/19/ensembles.png
How do you find that map of the pressures on the tropical titbits map?
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