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TCFA 9Z
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WTPN21 PGTW 200900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8N 146.5E TO 16.0N 136.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 200800Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.9N 146.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 11.6N 144.7E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 146.1E, APPROXIMATELY
90 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200518Z SSMI 85GHZ MICROWAVE PASS SHOW A
CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS LLC IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD MONSOON DEPRESSION
WITH STRONGER WINDS LOCATED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE RADAR
LOOP FROM ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM SHOWS IMPROVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO A WELL DEFINED MIDLEVEL (NEAR 7000 FT) CIRCULATION
CENTER. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM ANDERSEN AFB (PGUA) INDICATE
EASTERLY WINDS AT 10 KNOTS WHILE SHIP OBSERVATIONS IN THE VICINITY
INDICATE SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS AT 21 KNOTS. THE DISTURBANCE IS
CURRENTLY LOCATED IN AN AREA OF EXCELLENT POLEWARD UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW, LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KNOTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (28-30 CELSIUS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST OVER THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS WITH INTENSIFICATION TO WARNING STATUS LIKELY
AFTER IT PASSES TO THE WEST OF GUAM, HOWEVER, DUE TO THE MONSOON
DEPRESSION CHARACTERISTICS THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THE
INITIAL POSITION OF THE SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
210900Z.//
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