ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2018092000, , BEST, 0, 92N, 73W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS033, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
AL, 99, 2018092006, , BEST, 0, 92N, 88W, 15, 0, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS033, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
AL, 99, 2018092012, , BEST, 0, 92N, 103W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS033, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
AL, 99, 2018092018, , BEST, 0, 92N, 118W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS033, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033,
AL, 99, 2018092100, , BEST, 0, 92N, 133W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 033, SPAWNINVEST, al772018 to al992018,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=119971&p=2713753#p2713753

[northjaxpro]

This invest looks pretty.healthy right now. One of the best looking African waves I have seen this season. I think the chances of this being the next named storm are quite decent in the next couple of days or sooner.

[galaxy401]

We could get 4 active invests soon when 90L forms in the central Atlantic tomorrow or the weekend.

[MetroMike]

A local met who shall remain nameless said a cold front will shun this off to the north.
At this low latitude I don’t know that I can buy that.

[cycloneye]

Saved loop.

[Gustywind]

http://oi63.tinypic.com/amccnm.jpg

Wow, that's very juicy convection popping more than nicely huge blob with a very healthy appareance.

[Hurricaneman]

A local met who shall remain nameless said a cold front will shun this off to the north.
At this low latitude I don’t know that I can buy that.

I know who you’re talking about, he needs to wait a week to 10 days before making this proclamation

[AutoPenalti]

A local met who shall remain nameless said a cold front will shun this off to the north.
At this low latitude I don’t know that I can buy that.

Let me guess, does it start with a W and it ends in a 2?

[Audrey2Katrina]

Yep... I noticed this puppy coming off the coast in the last NHC radar pics. Surprised they hadn't said anything about it before now. It looks very healthy... a lot of things can happen; but it looks pretty strong at this point.

[abajan]

http://oi63.tinypic.com/amccnm.jpg

Wow, that's very juicy convection popping more than nicely huge blob with a very healthy appareance.

The intensity of the convection has since diminished considerably. This normally happens as these systems exit Africa, though. Currently, neither the Euro nor GFS develop this much. But they both move it into the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.

[Gustywind]

http://oi63.tinypic.com/amccnm.jpg

Wow, that's very juicy convection popping more than nicely huge blob with a very healthy appareance.

The intensity of the convection has since diminished considerably. This normally happens as these systems exit Africa, though. Currently, neither the Euro nor GFS develop this much. But they both move it into the Lesser Antilles on Thursday.

Yes Abajan, you're right Remember we call the poof test. Interresting for the projected path, so we have to wait and see what could happen during the next couple of days.

[abajan]

The 8 AM TWO is unusually late. I guess they have a lot to say.

[cycloneye]

8 AM TWO:

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located
about 600 miles southeast of the Cabo Verde Islands are showing some
signs of organization. The environment is forecast to be conducive
for slow development, and a tropical depression could form early
next week while the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph across the
low latitudes of the eastern and central tropical Atlantic Ocean.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[abajan]

[abajan]

Thankfully, it's not currently expected to be anywhere near the intensity of this 1898 hurricane.

[wxman57]

Models certainly are not bullish on any significant development prior to it reaching the eastern Caribbean next Thu/Fri. The MDR has been quite a hostile environment this season, and I don't see that changing over the coming week.

[AubreyStorm]

Here we go!!

[cycloneye]

SCATSAT shows a fairly good circulation around 6N.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 99, 2018092112, , BEST, 0, 63N, 182W, 30, 1008, LO

[CyclonicFury]

ASCAT appears to show a near-closed circulation, with winds near 30 knots. Though convection has weakened since last night, it has persisted. Perhaps this may develop much sooner than the models are indicating?