Texas Fall 2018
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.
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- Tropical Storm
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- Location: Ponder Tx
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Here in Ponder my front neighborhood street is pretty much a stream now.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
The highest rain rates are now moving across the metroplex and northward. It's going to continue to fill in and pivot towards the center of low pressure. The airport may give a run at the wettest September on record tonight.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
bubba hotep wrote:The HRRR is really doing poorly with this system tonight across DFW.
The HRR has been performing horribly lately.
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- S2K Supporter
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- Location: Ponder, TX
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Captmorg70 wrote:Here in Ponder my front neighborhood street is pretty much a stream now.
Where in Ponder are you? I'm in Remington Park. Ponder outside of Denton, right?
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Don't hold me accountable for anything I post on this forum. Leave the real forecasting up to the professionals.
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
Location: Ponder, TX (all observation posts are this location unless otherwise noted)
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- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 178
- Age: 36
- Joined: Mon Dec 18, 2017 12:07 am
- Location: Ponder Tx
Re: Texas Fall 2018
HockeyTx82 wrote:Captmorg70 wrote:Here in Ponder my front neighborhood street is pretty much a stream now.
Where in Ponder are you? I'm in Remington Park. Ponder outside of Denton, right?
Yes, same neighborhood
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- Category 5
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
Dang...already almost 2 inches in north Fort Worth. It rained heavy but I didn’t think it was THAT heavy.
Most of this in 30 minutes....
Most of this in 30 minutes....
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- Haris
- Category 5
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- Location: ( Bee Cave) West Austin, Texas
Re: Texas Fall 2018
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Weather geek and a storm spotter in West Austin. Not a degreed meteorologist. Big snow fan. Love rain and cold! Despise heat!
- starsfan65
- Category 2
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- Location: Garland,Tx
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Ntxw wrote:The highest rain rates are now moving across the metroplex and northward. It's going to continue to fill in and pivot towards the center of low pressure. The airport may give a run at the wettest September on record tonight.
https://images2.imgbox.com/56/12/c49yBH9R_o.gif
where is the low pressure system now?
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
starsfan65 wrote:Ntxw wrote:The highest rain rates are now moving across the metroplex and northward. It's going to continue to fill in and pivot towards the center of low pressure. The airport may give a run at the wettest September on record tonight.
https://images2.imgbox.com/56/12/c49yBH9R_o.gif
where is the low pressure system now?
Post before yours, Haris answered it. It's basically going to be at a standstill for awhile.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
This is looking really bad for DFW... I wouldn't be surprised to see some of the crazy model totals verify over the next 10 to 12 hrs.
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- starsfan65
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
how long this low is be on that standstill?Ntxw wrote:starsfan65 wrote:Ntxw wrote:The highest rain rates are now moving across the metroplex and northward. It's going to continue to fill in and pivot towards the center of low pressure. The airport may give a run at the wettest September on record tonight.
https://images2.imgbox.com/56/12/c49yBH9R_o.gif
where is the low pressure system now?
Post before yours, Haris answered it. It's basically going to be at a standstill for awhile.
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
starsfan65 wrote:how long this low is be on that standstill?Ntxw wrote:starsfan65 wrote:where is the low pressure system now?
Post before yours, Haris answered it. It's basically going to be at a standstill for awhile.
It will meander around where it is now until tomorrow evening. Perhaps be slightly east/southeast but still pulling back rain. The front has become stationary in NTX.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Here is the discussion from the WPC
Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0877
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018
Areas affected...Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Area
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 220204Z - 220630Z
Summary...Dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding is
developing in the immediate Dallas-Ft. Worth Metro Area this
evening. Persistent thunderstorms and heavy rain are likely to
lead to significant rainfall totals. Rain rates should reach (or
locally exceed) 3 in/hr in the strongest rain bands and
thunderstorms.
Discussion...Significant flash flooding is just beginning to
develop in North Texas, and specifically the immediate Dallas-Ft.
Worth metro area. An increasing concentration of thunderstorms and
heavy convective rain bands are expected during the evening very
near a developing surface low. Hi-res models had originally
projected this to be a little further west, but 01Z surface
observations showed the lowest pressures over Tarrant County, as
well as a coherent circulation to the surface winds. The hi-res
models were insistent that the heaviest rain would be concentrated
in the immediate vicinity of the surface low, and perhaps just to
the north-northeast, where low-level confluence will be maximized
(low -topped convection could thus be increasingly channeled into
this area). This would also be an area on the northern cusp of
broad southerly inflow and situated right in the middle of a
bubble of deep moisture. Therefore, the expectation is that the
hi-res models generally assessed the heavy rainfall potential with
this feature correctly, it will just end up being shifted further
east, and into the DFW metro area. GPS-PW observations in the
region were around 2.4 inches, significant values and above the
99th percentile in the regional climatology. The expectation of an
increasing concentration of convection in the immediate vicinity
of DFW metro is also implied by remote sensing data, with KFWS
radar and GOES-16 satellite showing these trends well.
Accounting for the low ZDR bias at KFWS still implies numerous
small droplets in the convective rain bands when examining the
dual pol datasets. The overall environment (very high PW and
MLCAPE over 500 j/kg) will support highly efficient rain
production, and this is confirmed by the dual pol data. This sort
of environment would make 3+ in/hr rain rates achievable in large,
relatively steady-state, and slow-moving convective bands. Several
mesonet sites in the vicinity of Plano have already reported rain
rates around 2 in/hr and some water rescues were reported in
Denton County. The expectation of significant rain rates
persisting for (at least) several hours over a large urban area
suggests that dangerous, life-threatening flash flooding will
continue to develop this evening. Radar trends also suggest this
flooding could affect a large portion of the DFW metro area and
surrounding counties, and thus travel could become increasingly
difficult with numerous flooded and impassible roads, particularly
dangerous at nighttime. Therefore, this focused mesoscale
precipitation discussion has been issued to highlight this
enhanced threat for dangerous flash flooding.
Lamers
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1005 PM EDT Fri Sep 21 2018
Areas affected...Dallas-Fort Worth Metro Area
Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely
Valid 220204Z - 220630Z
Summary...Dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding is
developing in the immediate Dallas-Ft. Worth Metro Area this
evening. Persistent thunderstorms and heavy rain are likely to
lead to significant rainfall totals. Rain rates should reach (or
locally exceed) 3 in/hr in the strongest rain bands and
thunderstorms.
Discussion...Significant flash flooding is just beginning to
develop in North Texas, and specifically the immediate Dallas-Ft.
Worth metro area. An increasing concentration of thunderstorms and
heavy convective rain bands are expected during the evening very
near a developing surface low. Hi-res models had originally
projected this to be a little further west, but 01Z surface
observations showed the lowest pressures over Tarrant County, as
well as a coherent circulation to the surface winds. The hi-res
models were insistent that the heaviest rain would be concentrated
in the immediate vicinity of the surface low, and perhaps just to
the north-northeast, where low-level confluence will be maximized
(low -topped convection could thus be increasingly channeled into
this area). This would also be an area on the northern cusp of
broad southerly inflow and situated right in the middle of a
bubble of deep moisture. Therefore, the expectation is that the
hi-res models generally assessed the heavy rainfall potential with
this feature correctly, it will just end up being shifted further
east, and into the DFW metro area. GPS-PW observations in the
region were around 2.4 inches, significant values and above the
99th percentile in the regional climatology. The expectation of an
increasing concentration of convection in the immediate vicinity
of DFW metro is also implied by remote sensing data, with KFWS
radar and GOES-16 satellite showing these trends well.
Accounting for the low ZDR bias at KFWS still implies numerous
small droplets in the convective rain bands when examining the
dual pol datasets. The overall environment (very high PW and
MLCAPE over 500 j/kg) will support highly efficient rain
production, and this is confirmed by the dual pol data. This sort
of environment would make 3+ in/hr rain rates achievable in large,
relatively steady-state, and slow-moving convective bands. Several
mesonet sites in the vicinity of Plano have already reported rain
rates around 2 in/hr and some water rescues were reported in
Denton County. The expectation of significant rain rates
persisting for (at least) several hours over a large urban area
suggests that dangerous, life-threatening flash flooding will
continue to develop this evening. Radar trends also suggest this
flooding could affect a large portion of the DFW metro area and
surrounding counties, and thus travel could become increasingly
difficult with numerous flooded and impassible roads, particularly
dangerous at nighttime. Therefore, this focused mesoscale
precipitation discussion has been issued to highlight this
enhanced threat for dangerous flash flooding.
Lamers
ATTN...WFO...FWD...OUN...
ATTN...RFC...ABRFC...LMRFC...WGRFC...
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- bubba hotep
- S2K Supporter
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- Joined: Wed Dec 28, 2016 1:00 am
- Location: Collin County Texas
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Wow, 75 Closed!
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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.
- somethingfunny
- ChatStaff
- Posts: 3926
- Age: 36
- Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
- Location: McKinney, Texas
Re: Texas Fall 2018
Ntxw wrote:The highest rain rates are now moving across the metroplex and northward. It's going to continue to fill in and pivot towards the center of low pressure. The airport may give a run at the wettest September on record tonight.
https://images2.imgbox.com/56/12/c49yBH9R_o.gif
That batch over Collin County managed to shut down US 75 with 2 feet of water underneath Plano Parkway. Maybe the construction is a factor but I've never seen that highway flood before... Thank goodness there's a lull over that area right now because many cars became stranded. People need to get off the roads, round 2 is coming... Also thankful that this didn't hit during rush hour traffic. This rain is furious.
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I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
Re: Texas Fall 2018
The radar can be deceiving. At a glance it just looks like a good rainstorm filled in, but in reality the pwats are very high. Even the lighter reflectivity is pouring down an inch per hour rates no less the much higher reflectively. The column above is highly saturated.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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- Category 5
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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- Category 5
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- Joined: Sat Aug 27, 2005 12:47 am
- Location: North Fort Worth
- gboudx
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Re: Texas Fall 2018
In Rockwall were getting 1”/hr rates. Gonna see lots of ant mounds popping up.
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