BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Kirk Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018
...KIRK REGENERATES INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE WESTERN TROPICAL
ATLANTIC...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE
LESSER ANTILLES...
SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.8N 52.7W
ABOUT 470 MI...755 KM E OF BARBADOS
ABOUT 595 MI...955 KM ESE OF MARTINIQUE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:
The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Warning for
Barbados. The government of St. Lucia has issued a Tropical Storm
Warning for St. Lucia.
The government of Barbados has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for
St. Vincent and the Grenadines.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Barbados
* St. Lucia
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* St. Vincent and the Grenadines
A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within 36 hours.
Interests elsewhere in the central and northern Lesser Antilles
should monitor the progress of Kirk as additional warnings or
watches could be issued later today.
For storm information specific to your area, please monitor
products issued by your national meteorological service.
DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 500 AM AST (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Kirk was
located near latitude 11.8 North, longitude 52.7 West. Kirk is
moving toward the west near 18 mph (30 km/h). A westward to
west-northwestward motion is expected through Friday night. On the
forecast track, Kirk is expected to approach Barbados and the
northern Windward Islands Thursday afternoon and move into the
eastern Caribbean Sea by Friday morning.
Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast until Kirk moves through the
central Lesser Antilles Thursday afternoon and evening. Rapid
weakening is expected on Friday after Kirk emerges over the
Caribbean Sea.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km)
from the center.
The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to first reach the
warning area by Thursday afternoon, making outside preparations
difficult or dangerous. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the watch area by Thursday afternoon or evening.
RAINFALL: Kirk is expected to produce total rainfall totals of
4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 10 across the northern Windward
and southern Leeward Islands from Barbados and St. Lucia northward
across Martinique, Dominica, and Guadeloupe. These rains may
produce life-threatening flash floods and mudslides.
TCMAT2
TROPICAL STORM KIRK FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL122018
0900 UTC WED SEP 26 2018
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
BARBADOS. THE GOVERNMENT OF ST. LUCIA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR ST. LUCIA.
THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR
ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES.
SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BARBADOS
* ST. LUCIA
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ST. VINCENT AND THE GRENADINES
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA... IN THIS CASE WITHIN 36 HOURS.
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE LEEWARD ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF KIRK AS ADDITIONAL WARNINGS OR WATCHES COULD BE ISSUED
LATER TODAY.
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 52.7W AT 26/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 40 KT WITH GUSTS TO 50 KT.
34 KT.......100NE 90SE 0SW 40NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 120SE 0SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.8N 52.7W AT 26/0900Z
AT 26/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.7N 51.9W
FORECAST VALID 26/1800Z 12.4N 55.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...110NE 100SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/0600Z 13.2N 57.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 27/1800Z 14.1N 60.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 28/0600Z 14.8N 62.3W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 0SW 40NW.
FORECAST VALID 29/0600Z 15.7N 67.0W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 30/0600Z 15.9N 71.6W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 01/0600Z 16.0N 76.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.8N 52.7W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 26/1500Z
TCDAT2
Tropical Storm Kirk Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122018
500 AM AST Wed Sep 26 2018
Infrared satellite imagery during the past several hours indicates
that deep convection has increased and become better organized near
the center of the remnants of Kirk. In addition, two earlier ASCAT
scatterometer passes between 0000-0100Z indicated that the low-level
center had become a little better defined, and that the inner-core
wind field had contracted, now with a radius of maximum winds (RMW)
of about 40 nmi. Given the continued increase in the amount and
organization of the deep convection, advisories have be re-initiated
on Tropical Storm Kirk. The two ASCAT passes showed peak winds of 38
and 44 kt, so the initial intensity will be a blend of these two
values or 40 kt. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft will
be investigating Kirk later this morning to provide more detailed
information on the location and intensity of the tropical storm.
The initial motion estimates is an uncertain 280/16 kt, due to the
lack of a well-defined center to track for the past two days. The
global and regional models, excluding the HWRF model, are in very
good agreement on Kirk moving between west and west-northwest for
the next 72 hours along the south side of a strong Bermuda-Azores
high pressure system anchored across most of the subtropical
Atlantic. After that time, strong shear is forecast to weaken Kirk
into a remnant low, resulting in a more westward motion as the
shallow cyclone will be steered by the low-level easterly trade wind
flow. The official forecast track closely follows the HCCA
corrected-consensus model, and is a little south of the simple
consensus model TVCA due to an apparent northward bias in the HWRF
member.
The current modest west to southwesterly vertical wind shear is
forecast to decrease to less than 10 kt during the next 24 hours,
which should allow for some slight strengthening to occur. After 48
hours when Kirk is forecast to emerge over the eastern Caribbean
Sea, the shear is expected to increase to more then 30 kt, which
should act to displace the deep convection to the east of the
low-level center, resulting in rapid weakening. Kirk is forecast to
degenerate into a remnant low pressure system after 72 hours, but
this could occur a little sooner than indicated in the official
forecast if Kirk moves farther north and into even stronger shear
conditions. The NHC intensity forecast closely follows a blend of
the HCCA, FSSE, and IVCN consensus models.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 26/0900Z 11.8N 52.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 26/1800Z 12.4N 55.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 27/0600Z 13.2N 57.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 27/1800Z 14.1N 60.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 28/0600Z 14.8N 62.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
72H 29/0600Z 15.7N 67.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 30/0600Z 15.9N 71.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 01/0600Z 16.0N 76.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW