ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Very nice continuous hot tower firing at DMAX, obvious from the cirrus layering.
Outflow apparent on the north quad.
Just to the north of the CoC
Outflow apparent on the north quad.
Just to the north of the CoC
1 likes
- northjaxpro
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 8900
- Joined: Mon Sep 27, 2010 11:21 am
- Location: Jacksonville, FL
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Yeah, it has a chance to spin up a bit. 98L continues over a dry environment, however. The key is if it can sustain the convection today. The EURO run from late yesterday had this system getting rather close to the NC Outer Banks later this week.
2 likes
NEVER, EVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and weather in general, and most importantly, with life itself!!
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
________________________________________________________________________________________
Fay 2008 Beryl 2012 Debby 2012 Colin 2016 Hermine 2016 Julia 2016 Matthew 2016 Irma 2017 Dorian 2019
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Another short-duration tower firing nearly west of the CoC and closing in.
1 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Definitely ramping up now. Clearly at least partially closed LLC getting under the convection burst. The LLC Could quite possibly be closed off now. The upper level anticyclone that GCANE pointed out is surely helping and could keep the convection firing all day even though we're past DMAX.
3 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Lots of swirl in those low-level clouds. Looks very close to a closed circulation now.
0 likes
Eyes: Emily '86, Dean '89, Felix '95, Gert '99, Fabian '03, Humberto '19, Paulette '20
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 525
- Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm
- Location: Emerald Isle NC
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
emeraldislenc wrote:So how close will it come to NC?
GFS and Euro both have it skirting the outer banks (or rather, what small amount of vorticity remains on Wednesday morning, since neither sees it developing)
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
1 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
So would this be Florence 2.0? Florence was basically absorbed into mid latitude systems which left over this spin as a artifact. I guess they will discuss post season.
0 likes
- hurricanedude
- Military Member
- Posts: 1856
- Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 9:54 am
- Location: Virginia Beach, Virginia
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Strong rain-rate cell captured earlier this morning.
Should contribute to warming the core.
Should contribute to warming the core.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Recon being tasked
208
NOUS42 KNHC 241548
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 24 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-123
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/2100Z A. 26/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0114A CYCLONE
C. 25/1830Z C. 26/0300Z
D. 25/2030Z TO 26/0030Z D. 26/0500Z TO 26/1130Z
E. 32.5N 76.7W E. 34.0N 76.3W
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS AND
REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION KIRK FOR 26/1500Z NEAR 11.8N 54.0W.
208
NOUS42 KNHC 241548
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT MON 24 SEPTEMBER 2018
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2018
TCPOD NUMBER.....18-123
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT SYSTEM (OFFSHORE SOUTHEAST U.S. COAST)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71 FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 25/2100Z A. 26/0530Z,1130Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST B. AFXXX 0114A CYCLONE
C. 25/1830Z C. 26/0300Z
D. 25/2030Z TO 26/0030Z D. 26/0500Z TO 26/1130Z
E. 32.5N 76.7W E. 34.0N 76.3W
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY:
A. CONTINUE 6-HRLY FIXES ON SUSPECT SYSTEM IF IT DEVELOPS AND
REMAINS A THREAT.
B. POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST INTO THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL
DEPRESSION KIRK FOR 26/1500Z NEAR 11.8N 54.0W.
0 likes
-
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 1704
- Joined: Wed Feb 26, 2003 10:53 am
- Location: Nags Head, NC
- Contact:
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
This thing whatever it is, is making no sense. It will probably meet the guillotine sometime on Wednesday, but will it be already strong enough to cause a stir. Next, I thought for sure this would be an east weighted mess not really bothering anyone. Instead it seems for the moment that it is north and west weighted which of course means it could graze the NC coast with winds and rain. Finally, it seems to be really expanding (only for the moment). I’m hoping that it will all dissipate by morning, after all Kirk seems to have met its maker. Leslie is just going to spin around and not bother anyone.
Now we just need to find a good exorcist to get rid of the spawn of Florence.
Now we just need to find a good exorcist to get rid of the spawn of Florence.
0 likes
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
Convection firing to the north and west of the CoC seems to be filling in the low-level dry slot.
Wondering if we may be in for a bit of a surprise.
Wondering if we may be in for a bit of a surprise.
1 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
hurricanedude wrote:Where exactly is the estimated center?
Here's a CIMSS fix from 10:45 AM but I think it's an older fix. LLC should be a little wnw or northwest of there.
0 likes
-
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 4743
- Joined: Mon Sep 07, 2009 3:23 pm
- Location: From Ozone Park, NYC / Now in Brooklyn, NY
Re: ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion
xironman wrote:So would this be Florence 2.0? Florence was basically absorbed into mid latitude systems which left over this spin as a artifact. I guess they will discuss post season.
I just confirmed yesterday with someone from NHC that if they feel that any remnant of Florence can be traced to this circulation then it gets called Florence again. They should be having a hot debate about it right around now.
1 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 525
- Joined: Fri Aug 24, 2012 4:49 pm
- Location: Emerald Isle NC
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 4 guests