ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[moja.ram]

Tropical waves can produce tropical storm-force winds, but that doesn't make it technically a tropical storm. Had a very good ASCAT hit this morning that indicated a wave axis. That said, it may maintain its current state of organization until it nears the Caribbean. Shear near the eastern Caribbean, though, has been pretty high all season. Isaac couldn't survive it. Most likely just some rain for the islands. Canadian model taking it into the Gulf as a TS is as nuts as NAVGEM, which has it at hurricane strength near the NE Caribbean a week from today. Neither model can be trusted with tropical cyclones. Let's see what Kirk looks like once it passes west of 50W.

Note that whatever is left of Kirk when it reaches the Caribbean would most likely track well south of Puerto Rico and the DR.

I hope so my fellow Houstonian! I hope so!

[abajan]

Tropical waves can produce tropical storm-force winds, but that doesn't make it technically a tropical storm. Had a very good ASCAT hit this morning that indicated a wave axis. That said, it may maintain its current state of organization until it nears the Caribbean. Shear near the eastern Caribbean, though, has been pretty high all season. Isaac couldn't survive it. Most likely just some rain for the islands. Canadian model taking it into the Gulf as a TS is as nuts as NAVGEM, which has it at hurricane strength near the NE Caribbean a week from today. Neither model can be trusted with tropical cyclones. Let's see what Kirk looks like once it passes west of 50W.

Note that whatever is left of Kirk when it reaches the Caribbean would most likely track well south of Puerto Rico and the DR.

I hope so my fellow Houstonian! I hope so!

Houstonians, we might have a problem. (But we'll know in the next few hours.)

[chaser1]

I can just see the befuddled looks on the faces of San Juan NWS Office forecasters during shift changes as they update and review their own local discussion analysis and forecast for Puerto Rico and adjacent coastal waters......

Increasing clouds and showers associated with the Artist formerly known as T.D. 11 will begin to approach from the East and spread over the region..... Most of this energy is expected to be absorbed by Sub Tropical Storm Leslie, potential spawn of Michael which should likely retrograde back north and remain harmlessly far to our north through perhaps December.

Looking towards the latter half of the forecast period the broad and diffuse tattered soul of Kirk is forecast to continue tracking westward and expected to remain to our south. No word yet whether NHC is anticipating the potentially issuance of "Potential Tropical Cyclone Remnants of Kirk" advisories as the area nears the Eastern Caribbean later in the week.....

[meriland29]

So between all 3 of these systems, are any of them a more likely threat to the US?

[Hurricaneman]

So between all 3 of these systems, are any of them a more likely threat to the US?

If you go by the 18zGFS Kirk ends up in the EPAC so not at this moment maybe 98L for North Carolina as Leslie is in the central Atlantic spinning into oblivion

[chaser1]

Explosive bursting over center has got to be aiding air rising within the column. Meanwhile, outflow is expanding in all directions and at least temporarily helping to moisten up the environment around it and seemingly halting what minimal shear is presently approaching from the west. I can see hints of convective banding beginning to take shape. Lets see how long Kirk can maintain this level of convective activity. If maintained over center, I can reasonably imagine ASCAT and visible satellite confirming a straight upgrade back to T.S. sometime tomorrow morning.

So that caused a question to pop into my head. We've seen a number of storms over the years that have degenerated from a named storm (or hurricane) to a wave, then under less hostile conditions reorganize back to at least a T.S. again. Does anybody recall if or how many storms survived multiple degeneration's from Storm to open wave, back to Storm then wave again, and yet once again actually redevelop back into a T.S. for a third (or more) time??

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

An organized area of convection continues to grow, and Kirk appears close to regaining tropical storm designation. This is in line with high resolution visible imagery before the sun set which appeared to show westerlies again. Hopefully ASCAT clears the air definitively in an hour.

[meriland29]

An organized area of convection continues to grow, and Kirk appears close to regaining tropical storm designation. This is in line with high resolution visible imagery before the sun set which appeared to show westerlies again. Hopefully ASCAT clears the air definitely in an hour.

https://i.imgur.com/7SHXCF8.jpg

How's the dry air/sheer look immediately ahead o of him?

[moja.ram]

Tropical waves can produce tropical storm-force winds, but that doesn't make it technically a tropical storm. Had a very good ASCAT hit this morning that indicated a wave axis. That said, it may maintain its current state of organization until it nears the Caribbean. Shear near the eastern Caribbean, though, has been pretty high all season. Isaac couldn't survive it. Most likely just some rain for the islands. Canadian model taking it into the Gulf as a TS is as nuts as NAVGEM, which has it at hurricane strength near the NE Caribbean a week from today. Neither model can be trusted with tropical cyclones. Let's see what Kirk looks like once it passes west of 50W.

Note that whatever is left of Kirk when it reaches the Caribbean would most likely track well south of Puerto Rico and the DR.

I hope so my fellow Houstonian! I hope so!

Houstonians, we might have a problem. (But we'll know in the next few hours.)

You're killing me boss....

[Abdullah]

An organized area of convection continues to grow, and Kirk appears close to regaining tropical storm designation. This is in line with high resolution visible imagery before the sun set which appeared to show westerlies again. Hopefully ASCAT clears the air definitely in an hour.

https://i.imgur.com/7SHXCF8.jpg

How's the dry air/sheer look immediately ahead o of him?

If that Kelvin wave thingamajig is gone, we could have a Long-Tracking Storm, conditions stay good...


^
Shear Tendency

^
Dry Air

Or it could POOF, because why not. It's good for all of us if it POOFs.

[Aric Dunn]

HIghest initial and Raw T numbers from ADT kirk has ever had thus far. 2.7

[Aric Dunn]

those negative 60 to 70 degree tops have been rotating very quickly around the center now for a couple hours....

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A tropical wave, the remnants of Kirk, is located about 1300 miles
east of the Windward Islands. This system continues to produce
a large area of showers and thunderstorms, along with winds to gale
force over the northern portion of the wave, while it moves quickly
westward at around 25 mph. This system could redevelop into a
tropical cyclone during the next few days before it encounters
highly unfavorable upper-level winds while it approaches the
Caribbean Sea. For more information on this system, see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[chaser1]

So between all 3 of these systems, are any of them a more likely threat to the US?

Yes, but i'm going to play Monte Hall and suggest we look behind........ CURTAIN # 4!
I'll toss this Vegas 40 to 1 long-shot out there.

Kirk continues to re-organize as a large Tropical Storm. It's broad and better defined vertical structure continues to approach the Lesser Antilles. Lets assume the near-term possibility of Kirk pumping up the ridge to it's north separating what remains of T.D. 11's mid-level vorticity (presently interacting and being stretched by the TUTT like shear zone just north and east of Puerto Rico). Then, as Kirk continues to advance westward, it's large cyclonic circulation impacts a "Fujiwara" forcing over the remnants of T.D. 11 resulting in that systems' 500 mb - 850 mb weakness to be steered to the SSW and to a point in the Caribbean somewhere south of Haiti and east of Jamaica. Following the 2 to 3 days of languishing slowly towards the west, this disturbance undergoes rapid organization and develops into a tiny T.D. near Isle of Youth. From 72 -96 hr., TD 11 continues to deepen into T.S. Nadine where it slowly marches generally to the NNW and then a little faster to the North then NNE . Intensifying into Hurricane Nadine as it makes landfall north of Cedar Key, Fla. (cue sound of falling mike as it impacts floor)

[moja.ram]

So between all 3 of these systems, are any of them a more likely threat to the US?

Yes, but i'm going to play Monte Hall and suggest we look behind........ CURTAIN # 4!
I'll toss this Vegas 40 to 1 long-shot out there.

Kirk continues to re-organize as a large Tropical Storm. It's broad and better defined vertical structure continues to approach the Lesser Antilles. Lets assume the near-term possibility of Kirk pumping up the ridge to it's north separating what remains of T.D. 11's mid-level vorticity (presently interacting and being stretched by the TUTT like shear zone just north and east of Puerto Rico). Then, as Kirk continues to advance westward, it's large cyclonic circulation impacts a "Fujiwara" forcing over the remnants of T.D. 11 resulting in that systems' 500 mb - 850 mb weakness to be steered to the SSW and to a point in the Caribbean somewhere south of Haiti and east of Jamaica. Following the 2 to 3 days of languishing slowly towards the west, this disturbance undergoes rapid organization and develops into a tiny T.D. near Isle of Youth. From 72 -96 hr., TD 11 continues to deepen into T.S. Nadine where it slowly marches generally to the NNW and then a little faster to the North then NNE . Intensifying into Hurricane Nadine as it makes landfall north of Cedar Key, Fla. (cue sound of falling mike as it impacts floor)

[TheStormExpert]

So between all 3 of these systems, are any of them a more likely threat to the US?

98L if anything. Though that seems like a minimal threat at best fortunately.

In my opinion and own thoughts, the worst is behind us, and things are hopefully on a quick downhill trend from here on out.

[Aric Dunn]

[Aric Dunn]

ADJ and raw T number are now 2.8 and 2.9

[chaser1]

https://image.ibb.co/joVKrp/image_3.gif

Vastly improved convective pattern aside Aric, ya gotta admit..... that sorta looks like a Parrot Fish that just hit the windshield of a car moving about 100 mph.

[AnnularCane]

https://image.ibb.co/joVKrp/image_3.gif

Vastly improved convective pattern aside Aric, ya gotta admit..... that sorta looks like a Parrot Fish that just hit the windshield of a car moving about 100 mph.

I couldn't think of a good description that wasn't too disgusting.