ATL: KIRK - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Yellow line is roughly the shear axis. blue circle on left is barbados.

if it stays west it has a shot to keep deepening until it hits the shear... then the islands staying. if it moves even the slightest bit north it will have strong shear all the way to the islands and will be much weaker.

This all assuming the shear axis stays relatively where it's at. If it shifts north a little that will give Kirk more time in a low shear area.

So Barbados especially needs to watch it given the current path and organization as well as the 12z euro and ukmet today showing near hurricane strength.

[Nimbus]

If the shear can strip the convection before the islands it would make the forecast a lot easier.
The subtropical ridge could move west enough to lower the current shear east of the islands some if Kirk were to slow down a little bit.

[wxman57]

Well at least there will be no doubt about the Circ by tomorrow because it will be exposed completely. lol

And that is something you and I can agree on, for once.

[Aric Dunn]

Well at least there will be no doubt about the Circ by tomorrow because it will be exposed completely. lol

And that is something you and I can agree on, for once.

Hahaha well there is still a decent shot it stays south of the shear axis longer. most of the models have a north of west motion. so if it stays on its westerly heading we might have to wait until thursday morning

[wxman57]

Note that the Euro never has handled wind shear well. It's forecast of a 77kt storm passing Barbados has about as much chance of happening as me winning the lottery.

[moja.ram]

incredible.... the storm is now project higher up North than earlier today. This sob is going to ruin my weekend.

[floridasun78]

look could ts again before coming tropical wave

[cycloneye]

70%/70%

The remnants of Kirk are located about 750 miles east of the
Windward Islands and are moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 mph.
The associated shower and thunderstorm activity has become a little
better organized during the last several hours, however, the
system still appears to lack a closed circulation. This disturbance
is likely to redevelop into a tropical cyclone during the next day
or two before it moves into an area of highly unfavorable
upper-level winds as it approaches the Caribbean Sea. Interests in
the Windward and Leeward Islands should monitor the progress of this
disturbance as gusty winds and locally heavy rains are likely over
the next couple of days even if the system does not redevelop into a
tropical cyclone. For more information on this system, see High
Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

lol... anyway besides the nhc..

here is this... of course it is difficult to determine anything due to the convection. but plenty fo west wind barbs.

[EquusStorm]

I dunno, I give up. LLC was evident in visible earlier, convection is very organized, I have no idea what it will take for this to be reclassified at this point. There's not much more it can do to be a (weak and temporary but still legit) tropical cyclone again.

[Aric Dunn]

I dunno, I give up. LLC was evident in visible earlier, convection is very organized, I have no idea what it will take for this to be reclassified at this point. There's not much more it can do to be a (weak and temporary but still legit) tropical cyclone again.

maybe just hoping it goes away from shear first. who knows. I have talked to multiple other Mets and all agree..

[EquusStorm]

They did the same thing with TD11, ignoring it and waiting for it to die, till they were forced to start issuing advisories heh. I suspect the post-analysis of this is going to have to bump it back to a TS for a good chunk of its path; just going from basic visible imagery, even

[Aric Dunn]

and more evidence...

[Gustywind]

and more evidence...

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/ATL/12L.KIRK/gmi/color/1degreeticks/20180925.2331.gpm.x.colorpct_89h_89v_1deg.12LKIRK.35kts-1007mb-114N-486W.056pc.jpg

Trying to close of that circulation? Wow oh boy. Cannot be more agree Aric. So do you think that at 11PM we could see a special statement?

[chaser1]

and more evidence...

https://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tcdat/tc18/ATL/12L.KIRK/gmi/color/1degreeticks/20180925.2331.gpm.x.colorpct_89h_89v_1deg.12LKIRK.35kts-1007mb-114N-486W.056pc.jpg

Trying to close of that circulation? Wow oh boy. Cannot be more agree Aric. So do you think that at 11PM we could see a special statement?

I doubt it, but I think they should. (I realize that question was for Aric but thought i'd chime in with my 2Cents worth lol). Reality is, it's still a couple days away and historically the Island's down there typically require a bit less time for final storm prep; that and the fact that NHC is at most projecting a "possible" T.S. at it's strongest.... I'd guess they're comfortable with holding off until tomm. daylight satellite and recon data to upgrade. Personally, I'd hedge toward upgrading it to a depression now. It essentially meets (even if barely) a good deal of prerequisite characteristics. I'd agree that the evidence for solid west winds are scant but c'mon? It's reasonable to think that it's forward speed and ASCAT cloud density limitations could at least represent a 10% or greater margin of error. Add to the argument that the 18Z GFS is now on board with the EURO suggesting a somewhat stronger cyclone (18Z GFS now showing a sub 1000 mb) to pass through the Islands. Also, the system has maintained a CDO feature more or less over the COC since last night and not showing diurnal fall off nor impact from shear at this time. At least temporarily, Kirk's westward outflow is continuing to win the battle over the approaching upper level shear. I would upgrade the system back to a T.D. at 11:00pm. Worse (and probably unlikely) case scenario would be for convection to suddenly come to a halt during the 3-9 hours to follow. That way if we assume 0Z continuity of the major global models suggesting at least a minimal to moderate T.S. will approach the Islands, NHC will be in a position to simply permit RECON to either confirm the upgrade to T.D., or potentially be in the position to upgrade it to a T.S. should the plane corroborate the increasingly bullish near term model intensity forecast. Finally (and I know this is not the model thread), but look for the 0Z Global runs to possibly continue to show Kirk a bit further north than prior forecasts; This as a result of it's potentially deeper and increasingly vertical structure (funny, maybe the NOGAPS solution is a bit less crazy then everyone would give it credit for being. THAT by the way might open up the potential for an entirely new set of events but i'll leave that for the other thread).

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

He's back.

[Aric Dunn]

ANother fairly large area of -80 plus cloud tops right on the east side of the circ. this system really like pushing though top up there

[CyclonicFury]

Based on that ASCAT data, I'd say Kirk is now a 40-knot tropical storm. Kirk is back and stronger than ever.

[Aric Dunn]

He's back.

https://i.imgur.com/KS3j492.png

where are pulling that from ? nothing I have is updating.

[Ubuntwo]

He's back.

https://i.imgur.com/KS3j492.png

where are pulling that from ? nothing I have is updating.

Was showing up on FNMOC site for me