ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Yeah I doubt the NHC is going to classify it but it's definitely still organized now that convection has held on. Shame this will probably not be noted or documented officially since it basically meets all criteria.

No I'm saying that this has a very good chance of becoming a named TS in the next 24 hours. If you look at the previous SWIR loop I posted and now this one, you can see that the upper winds / shear may have been fast but as the lower level winds increase the LLC accelerates to catch up with the MLC and you can get a stacked TC over the Gulf Stream. This happens every once or twice in the Fall east of the mid-Atlantic or New England.

[Aric Dunn]

Yeah I doubt the NHC is going to classify it but it's definitely still organized now that convection has held on. Shame this will probably not be noted or documented officially since it basically meets all criteria.

No I'm saying that this has a very good chance of becoming a named TS in the next 24 hours. If you look at the previous SWIR loop I posted and now this one, you can see that the upper winds / shear may have been fast but as the lower level winds increase the LLC accelerates to catch up with the MLC and you can get a stacked TC over the Gulf Stream. This happens every once or twice in the Fall east of the mid-Atlantic or New England.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/rgQDyTo.gif [/url]

perfect example is hurricane "cant remember name" It was a B name years ago that developed an eye just off nova scotia

but started out like this until it begin to move.

[Hammy]

Yeah I doubt the NHC is going to classify it but it's definitely still organized now that convection has held on. Shame this will probably not be noted or documented officially since it basically meets all criteria.

No I'm saying that this has a very good chance of becoming a named TS in the next 24 hours. If you look at the previous SWIR loop I posted and now this one, you can see that the upper winds / shear may have been fast but as the lower level winds increase the LLC accelerates to catch up with the MLC and you can get a stacked TC over the Gulf Stream. This happens every once or twice in the Fall east of the mid-Atlantic or New England.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/rgQDyTo.gif [/url]

perfect example is hurricane "cant remember name" It was a B name years ago that developed an eye just off nova scotia

Was it Bill in 1997?

[Aric Dunn]

No I'm saying that this has a very good chance of becoming a named TS in the next 24 hours. If you look at the previous SWIR loop I posted and now this one, you can see that the upper winds / shear may have been fast but as the lower level winds increase the LLC accelerates to catch up with the MLC and you can get a stacked TC over the Gulf Stream. This happens every once or twice in the Fall east of the mid-Atlantic or New England.

[url]http://i.imgur.com/rgQDyTo.gif [/url]

perfect example is hurricane "cant remember name" It was a B name years ago that developed an eye just off nova scotia

Was it Bill in 1997?

https://i.imgur.com/QRIhFfv.png

yep thats it !

[EquusStorm]

Well it's absolutely still out there with only a slightly dislocated at least midlevel center and highly persistent convection so it would certainly be neat if it did so! NHC removing it completely from the TWO seems a little premature, at least keep it in with a 0% or 10% until completely gone. Have seen far more unlikely storms get classified

[Hammy]

Well it's absolutely still out there with only a slightly dislocated at least midlevel center and highly persistent convection so it would certainly be neat if it did so! NHC removing it completely from the TWO seems a little premature, at least keep it in with a 0% or 10% until completely gone. Have seen far more unlikely storms get classified

It seems they have no intent on upgrading this regardless of what happens at this point. I don't want to come off as NHC bashing but I do have to wonder sometimes if they weigh the model support a system has more than real time data when it comes to upgrading.

[EquusStorm]

Can't say that I disagree with wondering the same. Not that they need to classify every swirl and blob not supported by most runs (and ironically this had some degree of support way back before it first developed of course) but this one was clearly a cut above most marginal events. I do wonder if the TD criteria has gotten more strict; we seem to have fewer than we did in some previous years/decades.

[Sciencerocks]

I think this deserves to be upgraded to a tropical storm post season and a t.d for about 3-4 days of its life span.

Anything less would be disrespecting the historic record.

[Aric Dunn]

FWIW this should be a TS right now..

[ozonepete]

I agree with all of you. There was no reason and still no reason to take it out yet. I'd bet the rent this gets upgraded after the season is over. This is a prime example of the rare occasion where the NHC makes up its mind prematurely. What bothers me is they just yank it and we don't get a reason why.

Here's how it looks this morning. In a low shear moist environment, with overshooting tops, traveling right over the Gulf stream.

[EquusStorm]

Looks even better now. I don't get it.

[Sciencerocks]

There's storms I am truly complexed with why the nhc trends to avoid upgrading them and this is near the top. Somehow Leslie was upgraded in the middle of no where and probably never deserved it at all.

[cycloneye]

2 PM TWO:

Shower activity has become more concentrated in association with an
area of disturbed weather located about 250 miles southeast of Cape
Cod, Massachusetts. While satellite wind data indicate that the
system has gale-force winds, there are currently no signs of a
closed circulation. Little additional development of this system is
expected before it merges with a frontal system tonight. For more
information on this system, see High Seas Forecasts issued by the
National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

[Aric Dunn]

lol.. none

from earlier of course..

[EquusStorm]

Hah, wow, didn't expect them to mention it again. Neat. ASCAT does seem to show that the west side may not be closed, so I guess I'm not surprised they won't classify it at the moment, but yesterday when it did have a closed center (albeit weak) and convection, they said the convection wasn't organized enough. Poor thing tried.

[ozonepete]

Obvioulsy closed. Bet you any money there are easterly winds on the north side of that circ. Damn! And 40-45 knot winds on the east side!

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: Obvioulsy closed. Bet you any money there are easterly winds on the north side of that circ. Damn! And 40-45 knot winds on the east side!

Yeah very much so. comes down again to fast moving TC's with ASCAT again.

[EquusStorm]

I hope they take a second look in the post-season and realize they should have classified it, like they did in 2013. And 2011. And 2006. And 2005. And 2000. And 1997. Point being, their operational track record in this area isn't perfect lol

[ozonepete]

I hope they take a second look in the post-season and realize they should have classified it, like they did in 2013. And 2011. And 2006. And 2005. And 2000. And 1997. Point being, their operational track record in this area isn't perfect lol

Lol really. Just really. C'mon. Guarantee you they re-classify this in the post season. 40 knot tropical storm or better. And it's not done yet.

[ozonepete]

Banding with multiple pronounced hot towers on the east side. There's where your 40 knot winds are.