WPAC: KONG-Rey - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

30W THIRTY 180928 1200 9.5N 148.0E WPAC 30 1005

[WALL-E]

GFS always catches eyeballs with 800+Hpa forecast. Few of them actually come to reality.

[Hayabusa]

30W THIRTY 180928 1800 11.2N 146.5E WPAC 35 1004

[euro6208]

Upgrades to a TS. Peak up to 120 knots.

WDPN32 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR
04//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 177 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
23 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTION WITH LIMITED
FORMATIVE BANDING SLIGHTLY OFFSET OF AN OBSCURED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE BASED ON A PARTLY EXPOSED LLC FEATURE IN THE 281728Z SSMI
MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON
EQUIVALENT DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES.
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS SHOWS TS 30W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW
(05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO FAVORABLE AT 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE
CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST, PASSING APPROXIMATELY
70 NM TO THE SOUTH OF GUAM NEAR 290300Z. THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 105 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO
150-NM BY TAU 72. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID NEAR THE CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
BY TAU 120, WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 225 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA,
JAPAN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW
TS 30W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS (POSSIBLY HIGHER) BY
TAU 96 BEFORE WEAKENING MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS. AFTER TAU 96,
TS 30W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AXIS AND TURN
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY SPREADS OUT
WITH ECMWF AS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER AND CTCX ON THE RIGHT MARGIN
OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THE LARGE SPREAD (OVER 700 NM AT
TAU 120), THE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

23 knots...
Moving really fast

JMA
TD
Issued at 01:05 UTC, 29 September 2018

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 29 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
TD
Center position N12°25' (12.4°)
E144°30' (144.5°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 40 km/h (21 kt)
Central pressure 1004 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 15 m/s (30 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 23 m/s (45 kt)
-----------------------------------------------------------------
30W THIRTY 180929 0000 12.4N 144.7E WPAC 35 1002

[Hayabusa]

[1900hurricane]

JMA is probably going to name 30W soon. The next name is Kong-rey.

[dexterlabio]

We're about to have three major TC's in the WPAC above 15N latitude in less than a month. I couldn't imagine how the ocean heat content in this area can still support more intense cyclones in the near future. Perhaps another month should pass without any TC formation in the area to recover from upwelling.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, some portions of the Philippine Sea, particularly the area where Trami stalled out, will need some time to recover. 30W could actually suffer some since it could pass very near Trami's stall zone.

[Hayabusa]

30W wouldn't be even as strong as Trami if it tracks over the area at forecast 96-120 hr.

Meanwhile below 15N including in the Philippine Sea

[Hayabusa]

WDPN32 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 30W (THIRTY) WARNING NR
05//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 30W (THIRTY), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 79 NM
SOUTH OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 21 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A POORLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM WITH LIMITED AND FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE
BANDING. THE INITIAL POSITION IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM A PARTLY EXPOSED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION FEATURE IN THE 282053Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KNOTS IS BASED ON EQUIVALENT DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KNOTS FROM PGTW AND KNES. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS
SHOWS TS 30W IS IN A FAVORABLE AREA WITH LOW (05-10 KNOT) VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND GOOD DUAL OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO FAVORABLE AT 30-31 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 30W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF THE STR THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST. THE FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST AND FUEL GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION TO 110 KNOTS BY TAU 72.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GRADUAL SPREADING TO
150-NM BY TAU 72. THERE IS FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK THAT IS LAID NEAR THE CONSENSUS.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 30W WILL CONTINUE ON A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND
BY TAU 120, WILL BE APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF OKINAWA,
JAPAN. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE AND ALLOW
TS 30W TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF 125 KNOTS (POSSIBLY HIGHER) BY
TAU 96 BEFORE GRADUALLY WEAKENING MAINLY DUE TO INCREASING VWS. AFTER
TAU 96, TS 30W WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE STR AXIS
AND TURN SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE SIGNIFICANTLY
SPREADS OUT WITH EEMN AS THE NOTABLE LEFT OUTLIER AND CTCX ON THE
RIGHT MARGIN OF THE MODEL ENVELOPE. IN VIEW OF THE LARGE SPREAD (OVER
470 NM AT TAU 120), THE CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK REMAINS LOW.//
NNNN

[mrbagyo]

[WALL-E]

The system is well developed over the last day. Deep convection can be observed centered at LLCC, though majority of the convection lies at the west side of LLCC, due to strong upper level east wind.
Outflow condition is acceptable, with the support from easterly at upper level. The outflow might be suppressed by Trami's outflow in two days, so "bald" pattern might be seen.
Kinda expecting CAT.1 after 24h, given the outflow condition is only acceptable.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

30W KONG-REY 180929 1800 13.3N 139.1E WPAC 55 995

[Hayabusa]

Upgrade to STS

STS 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 19:05 UTC, 29 September 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 29 September>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N13°10' (13.2°)
E139°40' (139.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25 km/h (14 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

30W KONG-REY 180930 0000 13.8N 138.4E WPAC 60 982

[Highteeld]

Probably would be a typhoon with recon