CPAC: WALAKA - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Here comes the potential CPAC to WPAC basin crosser.

97C INVEST 180927 1200 12.3N 145.4W CPAC 25 1008

[Ntxw]

Future Walaka. Been a good minute since we have spawned a CPAC brewed system.

[SconnieCane]

Yeah, back when I was first looking up stuff about Iniki and the season surrounding it I was like "Wait, they already had the I storm!" Didn't know they pulled from a different list that doesn't reset alphabetically every year for storms that are named west of 140.

[EquusStorm]

Some of the intensity guidance is very bullish on this. I'm pretty intrigued. CPac storms are neat.

[mrbagyo]

Very high ceiling if this stays below 20N

[mrbagyo]

TCFA by JTWC




CPHC
ZCZC HFOTWOCP ALL TTAA00 PHFO DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI 800 AM HST Fri Sep 28 2018 For the central North Pacific...between 140W and 180W:
1. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low level circulation center located about 600 miles south-southeast of Hilo, Hawaii continues to become better organized. A tropical depression is likely to form later today or on Saturday while the system moves west at about 15 mph, away from the islands of Hawaii. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent. Elsewhere, no tropical cyclones are expected during the next 5 days. Forecaster Kino

[Ntxw]

Yeah if it stays relatively low the potential for this is through the roof. It will pass through the holy grail of warm SSTs globally southwest of Hawaii. This to me has Cat 5 long tracker written all over it.

[mrbagyo]

[Extratropical94]

90%/100%

Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located around 650 miles south of Honolulu, Hawaii have become
better organized early this morning. Environmental conditions are
forecast to remain conducive for development over the next several
days, and the low will likely become a tropical depression
later today or tonight while it moves westward at around 15 mph
across the central Pacific, well to the south of Hawaii.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...near 100 percent

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Walaka is born.

CP, 01, 2018092918, , BEST, 0, 115N, 1586W, 35, 1005, TS, 34, NEQ, 40, 40, 0, 20, 1011, 150, 35, 0, 0, C, 0, , 0, 0, WALAKA, D,

[bob rulz]

I wouldn't mind a long-tracking, high-intensity basin-crosser to track. Ioke was one of my favorite storms to track back in the day.

[hurricanes1234]

Now officially Tropical Storm Walaka. First advisory forecast peak of 110 knots!

[hurricanes1234]

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 29/2100Z 11.5N 159.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 30/0600Z 11.5N 161.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 30/1800Z 11.8N 164.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 01/0600Z 12.5N 166.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 01/1800Z 13.4N 168.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 02/1800Z 16.5N 169.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
96H 03/1800Z 21.4N 168.5W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 04/1800Z 27.0N 168.0W 80 KT 90 MPH

Edit: apologies, I can't post the whole discussion as I'm using my phone and the formatting is jumbled.

[EquusStorm]

Seems surprisingly bullish from the CPHC, though probably a very good call based on guidance. Always really interesting to have a Hawaiian-named major.

[Chris90]

This is the system I'm most interested in globally. Looks really good on satellite and the ceiling is high. Might be some impressive rapid intensification. I also really like the name. Walaka. Wish they would send some planes to Hawaii and fly some research missions, could get some really good data.

[Ntxw]

Would agree of all the active systems globally, Walaka has some of the most pristine, untouched warm, deep waters. Others have to deal with latitude, up-welling from previous systems etc. If core can really take it to town my guess for this system is 150kts at peak.

[HurricaneRyan]

Sweet niblets at the EPAC and CPAC blowing up again!

[Ntxw]

Starting to come together. May be a Hurricane soon.

[mrbagyo]

The lack of latest microwave imagery is frustrating. Arggg.

[1900hurricane]