120H 04/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
ATL: LESLIE - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion
Now forecast to be a Hurricane in 96 hours.
96H 03/0000Z 30.5N 56.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 04/0000Z 31.5N 56.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion
only Bermuda need watch this may get close too them
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion
floridasun78 wrote:only Bermuda need watch this may get close too them
The models don't show it getting too close. Looks like a strong poleward movement after day 5. The swells are certainly here though.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion
Like I said yesterday Leslie should put up some nice ACE with now the NHC forecasting it to become a Cat 1 but I wouldn't doubt if it ends up becoming a major before is all done in the 5-7 day range.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion
Would love to see Leslie wind up as a major fish 'cane.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion
The latest Leslie forecast from the NHC still yields 3-4 units through 5 days.
In scenario if it becomes a major (100kts) for at least 24 hours or more then we could be looking at 10 units, and perhaps a few more after that during weakening phase extrapolating days 7-10. CSU 10-15 units is pretty reasonable for the final outcome.
In scenario if it becomes a major (100kts) for at least 24 hours or more then we could be looking at 10 units, and perhaps a few more after that during weakening phase extrapolating days 7-10. CSU 10-15 units is pretty reasonable for the final outcome.
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- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion
Ntxw wrote:The latest Leslie forecast from the NHC still yields 3-4 units through 5 days.
In scenario if it becomes a major (100kts) for at least 24 hours or more then we could be looking at 10 units, and perhaps a few more after that during weakening phase extrapolating days 7-10. CSU 10-15 units is pretty reasonable for the final outcome.
Maybe that happens but they are talking about this word. (Upwelling)
The global models forecast that Leslie will separate from the
upper-level low over the course of the next day or so, which should
complete its transition to a tropical cyclone. While this could
result in a short-term increase in shear over Leslie, by early next
week the cyclone will likely be located within a fairly low shear
environment. However, Leslie is expected to move very slowly by that
time, and ocean upwelling could limit or prevent further
strengthening.
upper-level low over the course of the next day or so, which should
complete its transition to a tropical cyclone. While this could
result in a short-term increase in shear over Leslie, by early next
week the cyclone will likely be located within a fairly low shear
environment. However, Leslie is expected to move very slowly by that
time, and ocean upwelling could limit or prevent further
strengthening.
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- EquusStorm
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion
Aaaand is tropical now. A little ahead of forecast.
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Colors of lost purpose on the canvas of irrelevance
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
Not a meteorologist, in fact more of an idiot than anything. You should probably check with the NHC or a local NWS office for official information.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - SubTropical Storm - Discussion
Leslie is acting similar to her 2012 counterpart
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Kay '22 Hilary '23
Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Amazing how the swells from a storm thousand of miles away are reaching FL.
https://twitter.com/ndgmetchef/status/1 ... 78275?s=21
https://twitter.com/ndgmetchef/status/1 ... 78275?s=21
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Apparently both EC and GFS have Leslie misses the next trough and keep her alive in the foreseeable future
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
It will battle shear for about another day or so then conditions will improve for some strengthening to Hurricane. Should peak day 3-7 before less then stellar conditions.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
How fast any residual trailing Leslie related 500 mb weakness near or south of Bermuda fills in and allows for rebuilding ridging there, which will largely be dependent on track and speed of her, will likely have a big say as to whether or not any Caribbean energy, which likely would be at least partially related to Kirk remnants, will move up E of FL or W of FL. The influence of TCs on each other is fascinating to follow!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- cycloneye
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
The global models show the
upper-level pattern becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a
day, which combined with warmer SSTs should allow Leslie to
gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its previous
track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling. These
conditions should end the strengthening trend and induce some
weakening.
upper-level pattern becoming more favorable over Leslie in about a
day, which combined with warmer SSTs should allow Leslie to
gradually strengthen during the next 2 to 3 days. After that time,
the storm is expected to move northeastward back over its previous
track and cooler waters partly caused by its own upwelling. These
conditions should end the strengthening trend and induce some
weakening.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
That blob of convection has rotated almost all the way around the circulation somehow without any wrapping or expanding.
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
Looking much better this morning, probably a 55-60 knot range, IMO.
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- AnnularCane
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
She's beautiful.
I suppose that's not TECHNICALLY an eye...is it?
I suppose that's not TECHNICALLY an eye...is it?
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
AnnularCane wrote:She's beautiful.
I suppose that's not TECHNICALLY an eye...is it?
Whatever it is mostly a large COC with multiple vorticities in it, but it has been contracting.
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- gfsperpendicular
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Re: ATL: LESLIE - Tropical Storm - Discussion
perhaps it's some sort of banding eye?
Leslie is fun to look at.
Leslie is fun to look at.
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I'm not sleeping, I'm waiting for the 0900 UTC advisory!
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