WPAC: KONG-Rey - Post-Tropical

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Hayabusa
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#141 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:44 am

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 15:45 UTC, 1 October 2018

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 1 October>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N17°00' (17.0°)
E134°00' (134.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#142 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:44 am

Image

ERC
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#143 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:49 am

2018OCT01 151000 7.0 917.6 140.0 7.0 7.3 7.4 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 21.49 -78.49 EYE 16 IR 73.6 17.02 -133.95 ARCHER HIM-8 21.4
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#144 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:54 am

Potentially another T7.5 system if current trend continues. Raw-Ts from ADT have started to decrease, but satellite presentation suggests that Kong-rey has continued to intensify over the past few hours.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#145 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 10:55 am

That warm pixel inside the tight eye :double:

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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#146 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:17 am

Even more warmer :eek:
2018OCT01 154000 7.0 917.6 140.0 7.0 7.4 7.4 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 22.21 -78.39 EYE 16 IR 73.6 17.09 -133.90 ARCHER HIM-8 21.5
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#147 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 11:26 am

SatCon now at 144 knots 920mb
Members CIRA & ATMS are stuck at 0930z
This is easily >150knots
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#148 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 01, 2018 12:49 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2018 Time : 171000 UTC
Lat : 17:12:00 N Lon : 133:41:59 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 911.4mb/146.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.2 7.4 7.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +22.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 163nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.7 degrees

****************************************************
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#149 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:15 pm

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2018 Time : 174000 UTC
Lat : 17:13:47 N Lon : 133:40:11 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.3 / 908.2mb/149.0kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.3 7.3 7.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 18 km

Center Temp : +22.8C Cloud Region Temp : -77.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 163nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 21.7 degrees

****************************************************
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#150 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:16 pm

ADT seems to be right on target. 145-150kt it is.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#151 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:51 pm

TY 1825 (Kong-rey)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 1 October 2018

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 1 October>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N17°10' (17.2°)
E133°40' (133.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 170 km (90 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 440 km (240 NM)
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#152 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 01, 2018 1:56 pm

JTWC misnamed Kong-rey as Walaka
TPPN12 PGTW 011851

A. TYPHOON 30W (WALAKA)

B. 01/1800Z

C. 17.25N

D. 133.63E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T7.0/7.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS
AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 1.0 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT OF
7.0. MET IS 6.5. PT IS 7.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


ZOUFALY
Last edited by Hayabusa on Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:10 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#153 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:07 pm

Not a cat 5 :grr:
30W KONG-REY 181001 1800 17.3N 133.6E WPAC 135 922
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#154 Postby NotoSans » Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:13 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Not a cat 5 :grr:
30W KONG-REY 181001 1800 17.3N 133.6E WPAC 135 922

Sorry to say that but this is ridiculous. Looks like a solid T7.5 to me right now.
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#155 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 2:50 pm

One of the warmest eye on AVN I've ever seen

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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#156 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:17 pm

Eye at 23C
2018OCT01 194000 7.3 908.2 149.0 7.2 7.2 7.2 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 23.00 -76.99 EYE 17 IR 55.9 17.53 -133.26 ARCHER HIM-8 22.2
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#157 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:25 pm

Whoa 23°C - it's challenging Meranti
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#158 Postby 1900hurricane » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:28 pm

New ATMS data is in, and an estimate should be made soon with it. At least one AMSU and SSMIS pass is also likely in the next few hours. I'm thinking SATCON will skyrocket here shortly.

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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#159 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:40 pm

Image
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Re: WPAC: KONG-Rey - Typhoon

#160 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Oct 01, 2018 3:52 pm

Looks to be 155kt right now and approaching 160kt.
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