CPAC: WALAKA - Post-Tropical

[supercane4867]

[TorSkk]

18Z BT same as latest from CPHC

01C WALAKA 181001 1800 12.6N 168.9W CPAC 125 935

[Ntxw]

[Sciencerocks]

One could argue 135-140 knt

[Kingarabian]

Other than wind lag factors, this is a Cat.5. Lane had almost the same look at its peak.

[CrazyC83]

TXPN21 KNES 011756
TCSCNP

A. 01C (WALAKA)

B. 01/1730Z

C. 12.5N

D. 168.8W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.5/6.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED WITHIN W RESULTS IN
AN ENO OF 6.0 AND AN EADJ OF +1.0, GIVING A CF OF 7.0. NO BF IS ADDED,
SO THE DT IS 7.0. THE MET IS 5.5 AND THE PT IS 6.0. THE FT IS BASED
ON CONSTRAINTS LIMITING THE CHANGE IN INTENSITY OVER 6, 12, 18, AND 24
HOURS AND THAT THE FT MUST BE WITHIN 1.0 T# OF THE MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...HOSLEY

[CrazyC83]

Other than wind lag factors, this is a Cat.5. Lane had almost the same look at its peak.

I'd ignore the constraints here, since this has been bombing out faster than they allow. I'd go with 145 kt right now, giving some weight to the Raw-T of 7.4 (which would support 150-155 kt).

[bob rulz]

Little doubt in my mind this is already 140-145 knots. This looks better than some category 5's I've seen. This may have been one of the fastest-intensifying storms ever.

If only it were logistically possible to fly recon into every storm.

[Kingarabian]

Other than wind lag factors, this is a Cat.5. Lane had almost the same look at its peak.

I'd ignore the constraints here, since this has been bombing out faster than they allow. I'd go with 145 kt right now, giving some weight to the Raw-T of 7.4 (which would support 150-155 kt).

Yeah definitely they must be broken. This is not a gradual increase in organization as we saw with Hector and Lane. This bombed out, so I'm betting those constraints are overdoing it.

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1046807995546505217




The CPHC showed that it confers with the NHC in regards to systems in the CPAC. So hopefully they'll take their advice and bump it to Cat.5 soon.

[Kingarabian]

 https://twitter.com/wxmann/status/1046812287665766408

[CrazyC83]

Other than wind lag factors, this is a Cat.5. Lane had almost the same look at its peak.

I'd ignore the constraints here, since this has been bombing out faster than they allow. I'd go with 145 kt right now, giving some weight to the Raw-T of 7.4 (which would support 150-155 kt).

Yeah definitely they must be broken. This is not a gradual increase in organization as we saw with Hector and Lane. This bombed out, so I'm betting those constraints are overdoing it.

https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1046807995546505217

The CPHC showed that it confers with the NHC in regards to systems in the CPAC. So hopefully they'll take their advice and bump it to Cat.5 soon.

This is not far off the rates we saw in Patricia and Wilma.

[Kingarabian]

2 hour old pass and not the best resolution. Deadly system.

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 OCT 2018 Time : 193000 UTC
Lat : 12:43:12 N Lon : 169:06:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.0 / 924.8mb/140.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
7.0 7.1 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 19 km

Center Temp : +15.4C Cloud Region Temp : -74.1C

Scene Type : EYE

[supercane4867]

Solid 140kt hurricane right there

[TorSkk]

Now forecasting 145 knots

...CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE WALAKA STILL INTENSIFYING FAR SOUTHWEST OF
HAWAII...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM HST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...12.9N 169.3W
ABOUT 265 MI...425 KM S OF JOHNSTON ISLAND
ABOUT 950 MI...1530 KM SW OF HONOLULU HAWAII
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...150 MPH...240 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...930 MB...27.47 INCHES

[Kingarabian]

Too bad you need a permit to get to Johnston Atoll. Would make for a good chase for extreme weather chasers.

[supercane4867]

130kt is absurd

[Kingarabian]

130kt is absurd

[url]https://i.imgur.com/lQNDnOu.gif[url]

Yeah it is... Offseason re-analysis should bump this to Cat.5 around 1500Z.

[supercane4867]

Too bad you need a permit to get to Johnston Atoll. Would make for a good chase for extreme weather chasers.

Impossible to get there unless you rent a private jet.

[Kingarabian]

Too bad you need a permit to get to Johnston Atoll. Would make for a good chase for extreme weather chasers.

Impossible to get there unless you rent a private jet.

Through a permit from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service it's possible by boat I believe.