LarryWx wrote:Are there any models beside Euro, GFS, UK that we can trust won't overstrengthen in high shear?
The models that are intensifying it dont have high shear. the upper environment just plays out differently.
Like I have mentioned already pay attention to the current upper low heading to the Yucutan.
there is variance between how that current upper low plays out and a second upper low that develops and retrogrades ( AJC3 also mentioned this previously) west later in the week. the second one cant come in if the first one does not move or die.
so right now looking at the models past 48 hours is pointless to make any rational decision.
if this current upper low shifts farther west and wnw that will make a conducive environment to see something develop faster ( in the next couple days) if it parks itself about where it is like the GFS and euro say then continued shear as it meanders north and slow development possible.
so we just have to wait and look for some short term trends that might lead to some long term better solutions. i.e if we see something consolidate quicker and not broad.
Nothing at all. The whole model. 
