Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[GCANE]

Jamaica buoy reporting 1009.5 mb

[GCANE]

COAMPS spins it up in about 90 hrs.
Heading to the Yucatan Channel.

[AutoPenalti]

GFS 06z has nothing at HR 198 except a 1010mb low off the SE Bahamas.

@216, developing TS heading WNW/W towards George Town.

[northjaxpro]

Now things are getting a bit interesting down there now. NHC now giving probs now and the good ole yellow circle on our disturbed area.

Here we go.....

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like the 1004mb low near the Bahamas disappears @228 and instead another meandering 1004mb low takes over near the Yucatan.

[GCANE]

Another cylinder firing up.
Off-the-scale shortwave albedo.
Very dense, high-altitude cirrus.

[AutoPenalti]

@276, nothing but a sheared mess towards SW Florida.

Cyclonic PV's looks like two lows colliding with each other right on Florida.

[northjaxpro]

I am intrigued a bit looking ahead as I see this potential of this disturbance slowly materializing andl evolving in a couple of days . Probably will be lopsided TC in a shear environment. However, we indeed may see better upper level conditions once the system gets out of the Caribbean, whether if it is in the SE Gulf or off the Florida East Coast as we enter this upcoming weekend.

[NDG]

Most of the Euro's ensembles have track towards the GOM and not east of FL, which a good 80% of them now show development.

[toad strangler]

00z JMA - Shows nothing
00z CMC - 198 hours Cat 1 into LA
00z Euro - ENDS at 240 hours Depression / TS E of Vero Beach off shore
06z ICON - ENDS at 120 hours Weak L meandering in circles W of Jamaica
06z GFS - Does not develop anything in the near and mid term
06z NAVGEM - Major Hurricane just W of E Cuba in the Yucatan Channel
06z FV3 GFS - Depression moving NW through S FL at 180 hours

So, models are all over the place in development, intensity, and track.
That's to be expected.

[toad strangler]

Most of the Euro's ensembles have track towards the GOM and not east of FL, which a good 80% of them now show development.

A healthy dose of those ensembles look like the 00z CMC into the general area of LA

[GCANE]

00Z GFS, initializes warm core at +54 hr.
Waiting for the graphics on the 06Z run.

[abajan]

Let's see now ... which M named storm comes to mind when talking about systems in the Western Caribbean in October? Oh yeah: Mitch!

[NDG]

Closer look at the Euro's ensembles, after day 7 they are all over.

[toad strangler]

Let's see now ... which M named storm comes to mind when talking about systems in the Western Caribbean in October? Oh yeah: Mitch!

Not to get off topic but Mitch was expected to turn N and head towards the YP and quite possible an early version of Wilma. Modeling at the time suggested he would do that. BUT, he turned S and ravaged CA. Interestingly enough the remnants did eventually kick NE after meandering over land and cut through South FL as a depression like system. Dumped 10" plus in N Palm Beach County.

[Emmett_Brown]

I think the most intense convection that we are observing this morning is actually Kirk's remnants.

[cjrciadt]

Basiclly anything on the table in track at least. I wont even try possible intensity.

[gatorcane]

The GFS ensembles show several around the vicinity of South Florida in a week:

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Worth noting the strongest ECMWF ensemble members are basically showing what the FV3-GFS is showing.

[gatorcane]

FV3 GFS into South Florida with a messy system but looks to be organizing: