Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#221 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:08 am

models will keep going back and forth, first models aren't consistent till about 3-4 days out and this year it has been more on that 2-3 day range..I said yesterday I would give it 40-50 percent and as of right now that's what I am still looking at but don't target one spot till alot is at play here, fronts, troughs, high pressure and etc.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#222 Postby Ivanhater » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:08 am

Interesting a lot of models turn this west into the gulf strengthening. Makes sense with high pressure dominating the SE
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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#223 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:16 am

the last 4 days the models have been bouncing around, they will keep doing the same until we have a center and get some data once we have a center.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#224 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:18 am

Wow NAVGEM goes bonkers :double:

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#225 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:34 am

gatorcane wrote:Wow NAVGEM goes bonkers :double:


Verbatim, and yes we know its the Navy,(we know that post is coming lol ) that's a solid NW movement from Tidbits end of 144 hours off the Western tip of Cuba.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#226 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:37 am

Emmett_Brown wrote:I think the most intense convection that we are observing this morning is actually Kirk's remnants.


Let the memes begin

[youtube]https://youtu.be/I5pocMUIWwU[/youtube]
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#227 Postby Bocadude85 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:09 am

I am leaving for Cancun on Saturday, whatever comes of this needs to stay away from S.Fla and the Yucatán!
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#228 Postby ronjon » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:11 am

GFS FV3 eventually bombs out the cyclone at 959 mb just south of Gulfport MS moving north.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=fv3p&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100206&fh=270
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#229 Postby ronjon » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:13 am

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#230 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:19 am

And just for score keeping, the FV3 GFS ends in the far flung long range with another L over the YP
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#231 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:33 am

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#232 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:47 am

06Z GFS

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#233 Postby GCANE » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:06 am

Anti-cyclone has developed SW of the convection.

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#234 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:25 am

Looking at forecasted 500mb maps across the model suite I would open both eyes on the N Gulf Coast. The NAVGEM track from 6z seems very plausible. Of course that can change but it's pretty consistent all around. Intensity though is another animal ...
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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#235 Postby stormlover2013 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:38 am

never trust the navy, cmc, or icon this far out maybe 3 days out but not this far out
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#236 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:45 am

The low level vortex is just east of Nicaragua while a pronounced mid level vortex is north of Colombia with deep convection, I don't see anything to come out of the mid level vortex with nothing but easterly winds underneath it, this mid level vortex is what last night's Euro run shows developing near Jamaica later this week.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#237 Postby toad strangler » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:47 am

stormlover2013 wrote:never trust the navy, cmc, or icon this far out maybe 3 days out but not this far out


You seem to post this everyday about three time LOL
What I was saying, is the 500mb maps across the the model suite are very similar. Thus it could make that NAVGEM track very plausible.
I am in NO WAY singling out the NAVGEM all by itself.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#238 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:49 am

stormlover2013 wrote:never trust the navy, cmc, or icon this far out maybe 3 days out but not this far out


I’d side with the consensus of the GFS, Euro, and UKMET over the navy and CMC just about at all timeframes if they’re weaker. At least those 3 don’t have a tendency to overstrengthen when nearby shear is very high.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#239 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:49 am

nice convective blob. unfortunately, that is well east of the low pressure and broad circulation near the coast of Nicaragua. That would have to persist for a long time to change the flow. which it could slowly but most likely it will collapse over the next few hours. only ese flow through that entire mass.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#240 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 02, 2018 9:52 am

Aric Dunn wrote:nice convective blob. unfortunately, that is well east of the low pressure and broad circulation near the coast of Nicaragua. That would have to persist for a long time to change the flow. which it could slowly.


I was going to say that this convection is pretty far to the east.
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