Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Aric Dunn]

I would wager we have a well defined llc in the next 12 hours if the area near San andres continues the trend today and maintaining convection. and a TD much sooner .

unless of course it moves over land

[GCANE]

Best spin at 500 to 700 mb level.
Good convergence below that.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/m ... anim=html5

[northjaxpro]

Very obvious spin starting on the cloud deck.

http://i67.tinypic.com/ib9wjm.gif

Mid-level

[chaser1]

Now that there is a fairly decent low pressure area the models should respond a little better today.

I sure hope so LOL. Last few days have been like a crowd of people at the dinner table; All pausing suddenly because they briefly saw the fly that keeps popping up near a different food or dinner plate every other second. This disturbance model watch has practically turned into a 3 dimensional tennis match where differing models each exhibit their own general solution run after run. Each model actually trending toward a stubbornly held tendency to how this disturbance will (or will not evolve). Quite surprisingly, some models showing good deal more run to run consistency then others.

Overall, "most recent consistency" depicting development goes to CMC and GEM. Though probably less realistic near term outcomes, they both depict development between Thurs & Fri, steady intensification (in spite of shear) and general N. motion to threaten the N. Gulf coast. The GFS has shown excellent "zero development consistency" indicating overly hostile conditions prevail. The EURO has shown decent consistency for minimal development and general track motionhowever last night's 0Z run began to trend stronger.

All in all, the minimal broad consensus of all models seems to suggest the development of a broad sloppy T.D. between Friday - Sunday, that slowly moves generally between north and NNW, while seemingly blocked from exiting out toward the open Atlantic. Dependant on where genesis occursthe net average result seems to imply a reasonable chance that once north of 25W intensification to a T.S. or minimal hurricane later in the forecast period could well impact either East Coast Florida up to the Carolina's, or any point from S. Florida north and west to the North Central Gulf region. A contrary outcome of course could well be Zilch, Nada, Bupkis, Goose Egg as the GFS continues to depict but looking at the present visible satellite, that's looking less likely (unless a T.D. develops and then get's sheared apart a few days from now).

Here's a more detailed look at each model over their recent 4-8 model runs.

CMC and GEM have been steadfast consistent over the last couple of days with a 1004 low forming Thurs. or Fri. and more or less steadily strengthening into a hurricane that moves north into (or near) Cuba, and then into the GOM with greatest threat to the N. Gulf Coast.

GFS has been consistent showing largely zero development, however it keeps shifting spurious lows Northeast, to north, and now towards Brownsville TX.

FV3-GFS (experimental GFS) has been inconsistent with several run to run solutions showing a 1004 low developing farther east then the CMC & GEM near Jamaica, with motion north and then hooking west over Florida. However latest run weakens the low after developing near Jamaica and keeps a broad low over the NW Caribbean that eventually moves a weak low across Central Cuba into the S.E. Gulf

EURO has been consistently depicting no development with the overall energy moving NNE across Cuba and slight deepening east of N. Florida while moving northward. Latest run is the first model run depicting a 1004 low forming in the Caribbean just north of Jamaica (similar to prior FV3-GFS runs), and then east of Florida strengthening while moving North toward the Carolina's.

ICON seems to cough, stutter, stop and start depending on the individual model run. Overall though, it has depicted Caribbean development near Jamaica, with an overall strengthening as it moves north east of Florida and depicting a bend to the NNW (somewhat in line with prior FV3-GFS runs and the EURO runs).

[GCANE]

Very obvious spin starting on the cloud deck.

http://i67.tinypic.com/ib9wjm.gif

Mid-level

One good vortical hot tower and down to the surface.

[Aric Dunn]

Very obvious spin starting on the cloud deck.

http://i67.tinypic.com/ib9wjm.gif

Mid-level

One good vortical hot tower and down to the surface.

The models have been showing two competing vorts. its quite possible but only if the convection maintains.

[toad strangler]

Mid-level

One good vortical hot tower and down to the surface.

The models have been showing two competing vorts. its quite possible but only if the convection maintains.

12z Euro is split into two vorts at 96 hours

[northjaxpro]

The EURO indeed may be onto something with the two competing vortices.

I am beginning to wonder if the vort further east may become the dominant one down the road. Good convergence with that vort .

Complex synoptic set-up down there currently.

[1900hurricane]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1047185257190096896



 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1047186289060196352

[toad strangler]

The E based and stronger vort (albeit TINY) on the 12z Euro crashes right into the most mountainous region of Cuba heading N @ 144

[wxman57]

I might use the Canadian model for predicting snow in northern Canada, but NOT for predicting cyclogenesis in the tropics. More reliable genesis models (GFS/EC) are showing "something" spinning up by late this weekend or early next week, so it's something we need to keep an eye on. Note that the GFS has extremely strong wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf for the next 10+ days.

[SoupBone]

I might use the Canadian model for predicting snow in northern Canada, but NOT for predicting cyclogenesis in the tropics. More reliable genesis models (GFS/EC) are showing "something" spinning up by late this weekend or early next week, so it's something we need to keep an eye on. Note that the GFS has extremely strong wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf for the next 10+ days.

Meaning that whatever forms, will likely be a sheared mess?

[chris_fit]

I REALLY hope the EURO does not verify.... I am going on a cruise (Port Canaveral, Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, St Thomas, and Turks & Caicos) on 10/6 (Sat) through 10/13 (Sat) - It's going to be one rocky ride if the Euro pans out.

[LarryWx]

Euro moving due west 228-240 headed toward Vero 10/12.


Euro keying on that midlevel spin the entire time.

[chris_fit]

Really Euro.... really?!?! My cruise will comes back to Cape Canaveral 12 hours after this forecast point!!

[SFLcane]

12z Interesting Euro intensifying 997mb as it nears Florida blocked by ridge over head

[Aric Dunn]

12z Interesting Euro intensifying 997mb as it nears Florida blocked by ridge over head

just like before. it is rotating around a mid level gyre ... the northern motion is do to the shear and the gyre the ridging never really moves much.

[LarryWx]

12z Interesting Euro intensifying 997mb as it nears Florida blocked by ridge over head

Per the maps 6-12 hours before this, this is moving W underneath a 500 mb high's E winds. This would be a once in 30 year event for the US SE coast, a westward moving TC 10/1-15 into the SE.


Shear and SSTs are then highly favorable but dry air may be why no rapid dev.

[LarryWx]

OTOH just like the 0Z EPS, the 12Z EPS is keying on GOM. Don't know if this is due to bias or not.

[GCANE]

12Z GFS pretty consistent with 06Z run location but a bit earlier now.