Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[gatorcane]

Shear decreasing over Eastern blob (the one the EC develops):

[gatorcane]

Another look at the EC storm heading for Bahamas then Florida. Two back to back runs showing something similar:

[GCANE]

[stormlover2013]

Another look at the EC storm heading for Bahamas then Florida. Two back to back runs showing something similar:

https://i.postimg.cc/FHqzvZyH/ecmwf_mslp_uv850_seus_11.png

Don't get ur hopes up with it being consistent right now

[AutoPenalti]

It definitely has that “look”

[jaxfladude]

So Florida still in play? Hopefully nothing ends up developing.

[Hurricaneman]

The way the eastern vortex looks over the western one if I lived on the Florida peninsula I wouldn’t be surprised if a something came up through Hispaniola, developed into a hurricane and headed west through Florida and ended up near New Orleans in the end with that ridge where it is and the fact that it looks like the eastern vortex looks stronger

[Hurricaneman]

So Florida still in play? Hopefully nothing ends up developing.

All of Florida is most certainly still in play

[otowntiger]

I might use the Canadian model for predicting snow in northern Canada, but NOT for predicting cyclogenesis in the tropics. More reliable genesis models (GFS/EC) are showing "something" spinning up by late this weekend or early next week, so it's something we need to keep an eye on. Note that the GFS has extremely strong wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf for the next 10+ days.

So nothing to really worry about it sounds like.

[Ian2401]

So Florida still in play? Hopefully nothing ends up developing.

I don't really think anyone's NOT in play

[stormlover2013]

no models have been consistent, heck the Ensembles keep changing also, we need to get a center so data can be more consistent.

[Sanibel]

Not a conducive year...Shear in area...Check it tomorrow...

[LarryWx]

EPS: 5 H hits on FL incl 4 Appalach to Ft Myers (App hit first hit E coast as TS, went W into NE GOM, and turned N) and 1 on Miami.

[stormlover2013]

alot of the Euro ensembles are more west today from last nights 00 runs

[Abdullah]

That was some DEEP convection.
Seems to be thinning out, now.

[wxman57]

I might use the Canadian model for predicting snow in northern Canada, but NOT for predicting cyclogenesis in the tropics. More reliable genesis models (GFS/EC) are showing "something" spinning up by late this weekend or early next week, so it's something we need to keep an eye on. Note that the GFS has extremely strong wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf for the next 10+ days.

So nothing to really worry about it sounds like.

I said it's something we need to keep an eye on. If the shear forecast is correct, then we could be looking at a sheared TS. It could head to the Carolinas, too, and they don't need any more rain at the moment.

[SFLcane]

Um Florida needs to watch to say the least. Still plenty of time

[Ken711]

I might use the Canadian model for predicting snow in northern Canada, but NOT for predicting cyclogenesis in the tropics. More reliable genesis models (GFS/EC) are showing "something" spinning up by late this weekend or early next week, so it's something we need to keep an eye on. Note that the GFS has extremely strong wind shear across the Caribbean and Gulf for the next 10+ days.

So nothing to really worry about it sounds like.

I said it's something we need to keep an eye on. If the shear forecast is correct, then we could be looking at a sheared TS. It could head to the Carolinas, too, and they don't need any more rain at the moment.

Exactly, if it becomes a NC coast hugger that's the last thing they need.

[northjaxpro]

It is still so very early and the NHC has yet to officially initialize a set center yet. There will be plenty of changes ahead. But everyone should be watching the developments of this potential system in the days to come.

[Ken711]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1047233152392019969