Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Abdullah]

That spinning is quite evident.

[northjaxpro]

Question for the mods. We have two vortices down in the Caribbean currently, with the easternmost vort (West-Central Caribbean) looking to be the strongest currently.

It is no longer about potential development just in the SW Caribbean.

Should we change the title of the thread?

[Aric Dunn]

the MLC nothing near the surface it will take quite a bit of sustained convection to change the overall low level flow in its favor.

the low level turning/weak circ near San Andres island as been battling the afternoon sea breezes reversing the inflow from this morning which is very typical with a weak developing area. overnight we will likely see another large burst as usual and will slowly better define the circ. just have to keep waiting at least another 24 to 36hrs.

[blp]

18z GFS finally closes this off heading to the Gulf now. Very different run this one will be strong. Watch out.

[Aric Dunn]

the 18z GFS is pretty funny.

[chaser1]

If we were to all take an extended cat-nap and wake up on Friday; chances are that very little will have changed and that NHC will probably be discussing "some" area of disturbed weather within the Caribbean basin in their T.W.O with potential development set to 40/60.

[northjaxpro]

Yeah chaser1 that is probably a good way to put it. Toss a coin at the moment to see which vort becomes the dominant one. Should find out soon if the EURO or GFS is right about which one will take over.

[Ken711]

GFS happy hour.

[blp]

GFS happy hour.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2018100218/gfs_mslp_pcpn_atl_48.png

Never fails. Purpose is to lure you into staying up for the 00z run.

[jlauderdal]

Should we start preps,

GFS happy hour.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... atl_48.png

[AJC3]

Question for the mods. We have two vortices down in the Caribbean currently, with the easternmost vort (West-Central Caribbean) looking to be the strongest currently.

It is no longer about potential development just in the SW Caribbean.

Should we change the title of the thread?

While it's still mainly in the SW quadrant of the Caribbean, it has begun to creep northward some. I have no qualms in changing the title to "Western Caribbean".

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

A broad area of low pressure located over the southwestern Caribbean
Sea is producing numerous showers and thunderstorms extending from
Central America eastward through Hispaniola. There are no signs
of a surface circulation at this time, but conditions appear to be
favorable for some gradual development of this system late this week
and this weekend while the low drifts generally northward during the
next several days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

[WeatherEmperor]

18z FV3 is back to showing a storm near South Florida heading west. Maybe the Euro isnt that crazy afterall?




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[gatorcane]

FV3 GFS through the FL Straits heading west.

[Abdullah]

When may it get invested?

[WeatherEmperor]

Aaaand the FV3 after hitting the Keys from the east, decides to turn around and hit SW Florida as a hurricane lol!




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[SFLcane]

Woah! Lol both gfs’s say Wilma take 2

[blp]

Another boomerang. This is silly.

[AnnularCane]

Are any models reliable at this point? Or is it too early?

[stormlover2013]

Models can’t be reliable till 3-4 days out