Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

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Aric Dunn
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#341 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:44 pm

All the models still keep developing multiple vorts at various different times that interact as a large gyre/ fujiwhara throughout the period. no consolidation.

so essentially they are not useful at the time being. have to wait until we get at least 1 llc somewhere.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#342 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:44 pm

Notice on the TWO nhc continues with the theme of conditions are expected to be favorable for gradual development. Shear um yea maybe not so much
Last edited by SFLcane on Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#343 Postby Hurricaneman » Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:44 pm

For my ideas on this system go to my daily forecast thread

As for current it’s looking like one of those monsoon gyres that takes a few days to form but once it does could take off really quickly so we should watch this one carefully
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#344 Postby AdamFirst » Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:48 pm

Both the GFS and Euro are showing something developing in the Northwest Caribbean by Day 5. That much alone is enough to keep us watching here.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#345 Postby SFLcane » Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:51 pm

When Avila says conditions could be favorable look out. :lol:
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#346 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 02, 2018 6:52 pm


Not how I want to spend my birthday!! Thanks GFS! :lol:
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#347 Postby MetroMike » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:20 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:

Not how I want to spend my birthday!! Thanks GFS! :lol:

In the morning it's likely to show something completely different.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#348 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:26 pm

I’d say these are pretty good upper-level conditions on the approach to South Florida :eek:

Image
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the southwestern Caribbean Sea

#349 Postby TheStormExpert » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:28 pm

MetroMike wrote:
TheStormExpert wrote:

Not how I want to spend my birthday!! Thanks GFS! :lol:

In the morning it's likely to show something completely different.

Oh I know.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#350 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:47 pm

Pretty darn good upper-level conditions on the old GFS on its approach to Florida:

Image
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#351 Postby NDG » Tue Oct 02, 2018 7:49 pm

Are we sure the FV3-GFS is the new and improved GFS?
But all seriously at least in its short to med range it is in very good agreement with the Euro of development near Jamaica by this weekend, both have been persistent on this solution during the past day or so.

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#352 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:02 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:Models can’t be reliable till 3-4 days out



It will also help once we get a true and definitive dominant coc implemented and initialized on the model runs as well.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#353 Postby caneman » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:05 pm

Some of those runs are a long way out. Seemed to have moved out at least several more days now. Wake me when something has actually got going. It surely will change
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#354 Postby Abdullah » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:07 pm

blp wrote:Another boomerang. This is silly.

https://image.ibb.co/mg9jte/fv3p_mslp_wind_watl_46.png

That's well into Category 3, there.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#355 Postby Abdullah » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:09 pm

The Eastern Vort seems to be dominating on 500 mB. In 200 mB, not a trace.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#356 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:09 pm

like always dont really look past 48 to 72 hours. even less when there is no well defined llc... and then even more soo when there are these large gyre situations..


sooo essentially all the models are useful for right now is a general idea of something in the western carrib and a general improvement in possible shear. and a general motion through 72 hours .. beyond that its just fun to watch.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#357 Postby AJC3 » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:12 pm

Abdullah wrote:The Eastern Vort seems to be dominating on 500 mB. In 200 mB, not a trace.


You wouldn't want to look anywhere close to that high in the atmosphere when it comes to a tracking development or consolidation of a LLC. Use 850MB...

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#358 Postby northjaxpro » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:16 pm

Abdullah wrote:The Eastern Vort seems to be dominating on 500 mB. In 200 mB, not a trace.


This evening convection is already trying to fire back up again with that mid level spin in the West-Central Caribbean, despite shear.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:21 pm, edited 4 times in total.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#359 Postby gatorcane » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:20 pm

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#360 Postby LarryWx » Tue Oct 02, 2018 8:23 pm

With questions about where any low leading to TC genesis would be located and when it would occur, climo going back to 1851 would be as good a wild guess as any at this very early stage....I.e., a move N to NE over FL. But obviously anything is on the table from a miss off the SE coast to a left hook into the SE US to a track into the Gulf, etc.and of course strength is way, way up in the air due to land interaction, El Niño enhanced shear in places, record warm SSTs for early October all around SE US, and extra unpredictability of strength in Oct.
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