Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Aric Dunn]

A lot of spin going on:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

its all 700mb and above. keep looking west for now.

and that MLC is moving off to the ne which should tell you all you need.

[NDG]

You guys are looking past 7 days too much, the most important event is that both the FV3-GFS and Euro show development further east near Jamaica as early as Saturday morning, less than 4 days from now. For both of them to agree on this solution only this far out is a good chance of materializing. IMO.
BTW, the Euro shows it becoming a strong TS before making landfall in eastern Cuba.

[stormlover2013]

Until we have a center then just keep model watching..y’all know how these storms are just don’t buy into a model past 5 days

[AJC3]

With questions about where any low leading to TC genesis would be located and when it would occur, climo going back to 1851 would be as good a wild guess as any at this very early stage....I.e., a move N to NE over FL. But obviously anything is on the table from a miss off the SE coast to a left hook into the SE US to a track into the Gulf, etc.and of course strength is way, way up in the air due to land interaction, El Niño enhanced shear in places, record warm SSTs for early October all around SE US, and extra unpredictability of strength in Oct.

This is a case where one would want to (where possible) reconstruct mean mid level heights/anomalies for those previous cases, grouping them into the various track scenarios. This is a pretty anomalous pattern we're in right now, with an unusually large and persistent area of positive 500MB height anomalies of between 60 and 120M over the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic, which is forecast to persist for more than a week from now

[fci]

Models can’t be reliable till 3-4 days out

Models can obviously be right or wrong and can’t be relied on as being a consistent predictor, however; they absolutely CAN be correct beyond 3-4 days. They had Florence doing something no other storm had ever done a week out, Wilma’s course more than a week out, same with Sandy. I wouldn’t rely on them very far out but sometimes they are uncanny pretty far out.

[stormlover2013]

Models have struggled all year I don’t trust a model past 3 days I’ve been tracking hurricanes for 15 years now and anything 5-7 day range I don’t really look at...

[northjaxpro]

With questions about where any low leading to TC genesis would be located and when it would occur, climo going back to 1851 would be as good a wild guess as any at this very early stage....I.e., a move N to NE over FL. But obviously anything is on the table from a miss off the SE coast to a left hook into the SE US to a track into the Gulf, etc.and of course strength is way, way up in the air due to land interaction, El Niño enhanced shear in places, record warm SSTs for early October all around SE US, and extra unpredictability of strength in Oct.

This is a case where one would want to (where possible) reconstruct mean mid level heights/anomalies for those previous cases, grouping them into the various track scenarios. This is a pretty anomalous pattern we're in right now, with an unusually large and persistent area of positive 500MB height anomalies of between 60 and 120M over the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic, which is forecast to persist for more than a week from now

+NAO

[fci]

Models have struggled all year I don’t trust a model past 3 days I’ve been tracking hurricanes for 15 years now and anything 5-7 day range I don’t really look at...

Considering this isn’t named yet or even tagged yet, models are a fantasy at this point.
I’d argue with you if there is a consensus even 7 days out. See my examples of Wilma and Florence for evidence of that. Wilma tracks were spot on in the models crossing the Yucatán and then doing almost a 180 to cross South Florida.
I shy away from “absolute” statements.

[stormlover2013]

80 percent of the time 5-7 days out u can’t trust..pros would make that statement also

[p1nheadlarry]

The Eastern Vort seems to be dominating on 500 mB. In 200 mB, not a trace.

Why would you expect that at 200 mb?

[Hurricaneman]

A lot of spin going on:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

its all 700mb and above. keep looking west for now.

and that MLC is moving off to the ne which should tell you all you need.

Actually the 850 low formed under the MLC but the MLC has been sheared to the NE so the 850 low is south of Jamaica by about 250miles and is stationary

[NDG]

Looking at the Euro & FV3-GFS even closer, it makes perfect sense for development near Jamaica. They both forecast the very pronounced mid level circulation south of the Island to very slowly move northward towards the island over the next 3 days and as it gets closer for a low level vorticity to start developing. Land interaction may help for development at the surface, which has been the case many times this season.

[Aric Dunn]

A lot of spin going on:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=24

its all 700mb and above. keep looking west for now.

and that MLC is moving off to the ne which should tell you all you need.

Actually the 850 low formed under the MLC but the MLC has been sheared to the NE so the 850 low is south of Jamaica by about 250miles and is stationary

not that it matters much. but there is no evidence of any vorticity at the 850 mb layer near jamaica. the MLC which essentially covers above 850 mb is what everyone is seeing on satelllite drifitng to the NE.

but again the leftover mlc's if you want will be dead soon with no convection....

[LarryWx]

With questions about where any low leading to TC genesis would be located and when it would occur, climo going back to 1851 would be as good a wild guess as any at this very early stage....I.e., a move N to NE over FL. But obviously anything is on the table from a miss off the SE coast to a left hook into the SE US to a track into the Gulf, etc.and of course strength is way, way up in the air due to land interaction, El Niño enhanced shear in places, record warm SSTs for early October all around SE US, and extra unpredictability of strength in Oct.

This is a case where one would want to (where possible) reconstruct mean mid level heights/anomalies for those previous cases, grouping them into the various track scenarios. This is a pretty anomalous pattern we're in right now, with an unusually large and persistent area of positive 500MB height anomalies of between 60 and 120M over the eastern CONUS and western Atlantic, which is forecast to persist for more than a week from now

I agree. I wonder if this is being aided by the very warm W ATL SSTs.
Knowing this tells me to keep the ~once every ten year early Oct direct TC hit on the SE coast (NC to FL coming from the E to SSE) as a higher possibility than its normal, which we’ve seen on some GFS, FV3, and Euro runs. However, I still don’t know that the chance is higher than the more classic hit from the Gulf, which has been showing up a bit more on recent runs like 18Z GFS/FV3 since the very persistent E US ridging waxes and wanes/always eventually gives in at least for short periods. Heck, I bet a good number of those classic hits from the Gulf occurred just after a period of anomalous E US ridging that was waning.
Another possibility to consider is a double hit or even two different TCs.

If someone held a gun to my head and forced me to make a very wild guess, I’d go with the climo favored Gulf hit on FL knowing full well that’s not a forecast but just a wild guess. In other words, I think the betting odds on that are still at least a little higher than a hit on the SE from the Atlantic. Normally they’re much higher but in this case they may be only a little higher in deference to the ridging (as of this early stage anyway).

[Aric Dunn]

and the always entertaining GFS is running

[Aric Dunn]

[WeatherEmperor]

I see almost nothing on the GFS so far. Is it dropping development all of a sudden??




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[Hurricaneman]

A storm that may be an analog if the GFS is right could be Opal 1995 but notice may be an analog but we won’t know until the weekend probably

[Aric Dunn]

I see almost nothing on the GFS so far. Is it dropping development all of a sudden??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181003/d6e56f9b748143b922ea400069030f84.png


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well at least it stopped producing all the ridiculous vorts everywhere lol

[Hurricaneman]

I see almost nothing on the GFS so far. Is it dropping development all of a sudden??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20181003/d6e56f9b748143b922ea400069030f84.png


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Has to do with going over Central America