Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Hurricaneman]

0Z Euro hour 84 indicates there likely won't be a well developed TC east of FL like the last run. Much less (actually almost nothing in the eastern position) vs what 12Z 96 hour showed.

Yep, runs into the Yucatan, it’s after 120 after it emerges from the Yucatan that I’m interested in due to this being the spot Opal formed in 1995

[TheStormExpert]

0Z Euro hour 84 indicates there likely won't be a well developed TC east of FL like the last run. Much less (actually almost nothing in the eastern position) vs what 12Z 96 hour showed.

Yep, runs into the Yucatan, it’s after 120 after it emerges from the Yucatan that I’m interested in due to this being the spot Opal formed in 1995

Probably goes into CA with no development this run. Nothing is pulling an Opal with that ridge to the north.

[Aric Dunn]

All the 0Z Euro 108 hour map has is a very weak highly sheared low just NE of Yucatan tip moving W. Likely won't amount to much but let's see.

if you look at the 850 vorticity ( as everyone should be) you will see there is at least 3 vorticities. 1 major one the satellite vort that develops and another over central america. all the models except the CMC have these features is some form. they are all interacting with each other. 1 run a satellite vort gets thrown north into the bahamas the next run it rotates quickly nw .. we have a very unique set up right now and A LOT of variables the models are having some issues resolving. we ware going to have to wait and see where we get just 1 defined low pressure and things will start to become more clear. right now take it all with a grain of salt.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe the UKMET wasn't so left biased this time. Models have surely trended left a good deal tonight. Wouldn't be surprised if this ultimately develops in the East Pacific.

[LarryWx]

Maybe the UKMET wasn't so left biased this time. Models have surely trended left a good deal tonight. Wouldn't be surprised if this ultimately develops in the East Pacific.

But the FV3 did the opposite. And the UKMET is about as it has been with EPAC genesis. So, not a universal leftward trend.

[TheStormExpert]

Maybe the UKMET wasn't so left biased this time. Models have surely trended left a good deal tonight. Wouldn't be surprised if this ultimately develops in the East Pacific.

But the FV3 did the opposite. And the UKMET is about as it has been with EPAC genesis. So, not a universal leftward trend.

The FV3-GFS is alone now with the idea that the two previous Euro runs had, will likely eventually cave you'd think.

[TheStormExpert]

Euro now showing some energy getting left behind in 8 days, take it for what it's worth.

[chaser1]

..... and once again, EURO at 192 hr's now = "nada" (maybe a broad weak low in the Bahamas, or E. Caribbean, or Bermuda..... feel free to pick any spot in the Atlantic basin lol). Everyone likes to rag on the GFS for being "neutered" and always having feedback issues. I'll say this much though, if we're going with run after run consistency on "if" and "where" a T.D/Storm will be forming..... perhaps the GFS is on to something. That "something" maybe "nothing"

[LarryWx]

0Z Euro hour 186: 850 vortex forms right where prior run had a TC. Then a very weak sfc low forms there with decent moisture and moves NW. Keep an eye on this area in future runs. It wouldn't be shocking if the Euro brings back an E of FL TC, perhaps weak, next run or two.

[chaser1]

Euro now showing some energy getting left behind in 8 days, take it for what it's worth.

Worth about $1.37. That and i'll throw in that 'ol 3 year old piece of wrapped bubble gum I just found under my rear car seat too.

[stormlover2013]

Lol like I said models will keep doing this

[TheStormExpert]

Looking at the full 00z Euro run it looks like it still goes with trying to develop the easternmost vorticity but the result is a much weaker area in 8-9 days east of FL heading into NE FL at day 10, the ensembles will be interesting.

[LarryWx]

"Landfall" of very weak low Daytona 10/12. Actually, it has a fairly decent amount of moisture. I'd say this run is signaling to not write off something forming in Bahamas, where shear is low and SSTs are very warm, in one week if there isn't already something coming up from further south and if there isn't a strong
Gulf TC. A 500 mb high to the north would add to the favorability.
Keep in mind that both the ocean and the atmosphere are normal for August, not Oct! So, not at all a normal early October situation.

[chaser1]

Wake me up when Florida's first cold front is on the horizon. That's when we'll possibly see something try and form to the south (at least we'll finally have something to yank Leslie out of the Atlantic as well lol)

[Aric Dunn]

..... and once again, EURO at 192 hr's now = "nada" (maybe a broad weak low in the Bahamas, or E. Caribbean, or Bermuda..... feel free to pick any spot in the Atlantic basin lol). Everyone likes to rag on the GFS for being "neutered" and always having feedback issues. I'll say this much though, if we're going with run after run consistency on "if" and "where" a T.D/Storm will be forming..... perhaps the GFS is on to something. That "something" maybe "nothing"

no.. the models are not onto anything.. except there is something in the area that will move in some direction. I have said this before..
everyone has to take a step back and look at the issues that arise in the location the set up and current situation.

it is kind of like this....there are currently too many variables. and the models are going through amaze running into issues the program itself cant resolve given the current information.

[LarryWx]

0Z EPS: still had Gulf activity though not as strong. Just E of FL/along FL E coast is a stronger signal vs 12Z. Actually one H skirts Vero and another H skirts Daytona. Another TC hits St. Aug but as a TS. One H and about 4 TS hit W FL. 1 H hits La/MS and another H hits TX/LA border.
H/TS hits 10/10-13.

[otowntiger]

the ensembles will be interesting.

Probably not, lol. So far the models last evening and this morning are tending toward a lot of “uninteresting” solutions. Hopefully the trend continues.

[ronjon]

06z GFS slightly stronger than 00z run and into the east-central GOM.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018100306&fh=234

[ronjon]

06z NAM western caribbean cyclone.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=nam&region=watl&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2018100306&fh=84

[NDG]

I knew the 0z Euro was going to drop the idea of cyclogenis near Jamaica from the the mid level circulation, it didn't have much support from its ensembles. Now the FV3-GFS is all alone.