Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

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toad strangler
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#441 Postby toad strangler » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:28 am

I'll laugh my you know what off if the NAVGEM ends up leading the pack. And I'll ride it like Sea Biscuit the rest of the month :lol:
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#442 Postby Evil Jeremy » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:32 am

Can someone update me on the current perception of the FV3, and from a meteorological standpoint, what’s causIng the slingshot motion (almost like a yo-yo) it keeps showing in the SGOM?
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#443 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:44 am

Oddly enough there is a tiny little vort SW of Jamaica. Just a little swirl..
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#444 Postby chris_fit » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:46 am

This is the smallest well defined LLC i have ever seen! lol

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#445 Postby Emmett_Brown » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:46 am

Evil Jeremy wrote:Can someone update me on the current perception of the FV3, and from a meteorological standpoint, what’s causIng the slingshot motion (almost like a yo-yo) it keeps showing in the SGOM?


I don't have the link handy, but read an article recently that the FV3 did the best out of all the globals forecasting the track of hurricane Lane out near Hawaii earlier this year. Each pattern is different, so no idea if it will do well under these circumstances. Also, until a center actually forms, we depend on how good any model is at genesis... so the errors compound dramatically.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#446 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 8:51 am

I vote for little to no development strong westerlies just about every were you look. We will see what it looks like a few days. Some sloppy highly sheared mess for now
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#447 Postby p1nheadlarry » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:03 am

blp wrote:
SFLcane wrote:
Dean4Storms wrote:Can anyone remember anytime in the past of a Tropical Disturbance sitting in the Western Carib. for at least a week in later Sept. through early to mid Oct. and it not go on to develop into a Tropical Cyclone? The Cyclone may have been heavily sheared or battled dry air but I cannot think of a time a disturbance has sat there and never became anything this time of year. So with that I think chances for at least a TS to develop are high. Exactly where it develops, when and how quickly it deepens remain big questions but with that big SE Ridge I can't see how it does not eventually become a GOM problem.


Actually with those cold-fronts progged by the models recently i think a move into the GOM is possible followed by NE movement towards the Florida peninsula. Not looking like much this morning and the NHC wording sounds like there not to far away from lowering development odds soon. We shall see


I don't think the odds have decreased. The Euro run had feedback issues like the GFS had. Plus the Euro ensembles did not change much and still show development. The 06z GFS has bounced back and I think has now aligned itself with the right area for cyclogenesis.

The one model that I am looking for is the Ukemt which really has not done much do to it's west bias but I am interested in the next few runs to see if changes. That would solidify the development chances a good deal.


Depending on where the low/mid level vort max consolidates, if we get enough convection beneath it and lower the potential temp gradient at the midlevels, the coastline might help it spin up the low level vort.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#448 Postby SoupBone » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:12 am

SFLcane wrote:I vote for little to no development strong westerlies just about every were you look. We will see what it looks like a few days. Some sloppy highly sheared mess for now



Screaming across the Western Caribbean right now. The story of the season in that area, and unless something drastic changes, it's going to be a hard life for this system.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#449 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 9:17 am

Convection increasing once again this morning down there were potential llc could develop

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#450 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:08 am

chris_fit wrote:This is the smallest well defined LLC i have ever seen! lol

https://i.imgur.com/uzqUgh5.jpg

Looks like we might have a LLC south of Jamaica, I wonder if that will cause the models to shift to the right
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#451 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:13 am

Hurricaneman wrote:
chris_fit wrote:This is the smallest well defined LLC i have ever seen! lol

https://i.imgur.com/uzqUgh5.jpg

Looks like we might have a LLC south of Jamaica, I wonder if that will cause the models to shift to the right


Only area i see were eventually a circulation could develop is down near central america and that's actually were the TWO is highlighted.
Last edited by SFLcane on Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:14 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#452 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:13 am

What is that ominous looking blob of convection due south of Hispaniola?
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#453 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:15 am

TheStormExpert wrote:What is that ominous looking blob of convection due south of Hispaniola?

MLC and most likely won’t develop there
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#454 Postby boca » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:16 am

I believe that was the same blob as yesterday but it moved NE.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#455 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:16 am

THere is clear west winds. curvature to the low level clouds. if convection can build offshore before the land heats up we might have something. otherwise, the sea breeze will develop and the developing circ will collapse again like yesterday.

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#456 Postby Hurricaneman » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:26 am

I think the area just NE of San Andres Island is the area to watch for development as that’s where the NHC put their x
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#457 Postby northjaxpro » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:32 am

FWIW, I am taking a bit more interest in the small area of vorticity a few hundred miles east of the Bahamas. That has flared up quite a bit this morning and this morning's 06Z GFS not only maintains this vorticity. but keeps it moving w/w-nw through South Florida by late this week.

An interesting feature nonetheless..
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#458 Postby floridasun78 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:40 am

look dry air trying kill area in nw carribbean
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#459 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:55 am

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#460 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 10:59 am

Good...maybe development odds will be lowered soon. That shear in my take is not going any were.
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