Nicholas and the Outflow Boundary...

[wxman57]

Take a look at the screen shot below. Nicholas had developed a large blob of deep convection near the center overnight, but that blob collapsed earlier this morning. The outflow boundary isn't from the collapse of the squalls after sunrise this morning, but from something that happened last night. Any time a storm puts out an outflow boundary like that it signals a weakening phase. A storm can't intensify if air is flowing away from it.

<img src="http://home.houston.rr.com/wx/nicholas1.gif">

[Ola]

Agreed. I noticed that too but I think it has had it for a while now and I dont think it will weaken it, but it will keep strenghtening in check. At least untill the low level inflow gets better established. It has been able to strenghten so far only because of the extrmelly cold cloud tops rising air. If it loses that strong convection and stays with owtflow boundaries then it will weaken.

[cycloneye]

And shear is still blowing the tops of the convection and that is why the LLC is SW exposed from that blob and as long that center is exposed no intensificaton will take place unless a new center forms below the deep convection.

[Typhoon_Willie]

Also a more westward movement would seem to be the case too!