Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[chris_fit]

12Z GFS is pretty lackluster so far through 102 hours

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS: through hour 120 very quiet

[SFLcane]

Looks like 12z GFS is going with no development through 100hrs

[LarryWx]

12Z ICON lackluster throughout its run
12Z CMC: does it really matter what it shows?

[chris_fit]

The CMC on the other hand send a hurricane to Western Louisiana

[SFLcane]

Next

[stormlover2013]

lol poor CMC

[chris_fit]

Pretty much crickets @156....

[stormlover2013]

looks like a rain maker from Tx to LA

[LarryWx]

12Z GFS lackluster thru 174 but very subtle low level trough approached FL from the east 162-8 with ample moisture and wind surge; this coincides with area Euro weakly develops there in face of low shear and well above normal SSTs; an area to watch for around 10/10 in future runs, especially with it being south of a very strong 500 mb high; not a concern but more of a curiosity; even the lowly 12Z CMC has a very weak low then going into FL

[cycloneye]

Interesting discussion by Levi Cowan.

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1047526806423834624




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1047527270779379714

[blp]

I am interested in the FV3 and Euro who have the higher resolution. If they don't show anything then we can start to question it. I think this setup is very complex for the GFS to resolve properly.

[Sanibel]

If west Caribbean favorability is stronger than shear it will reburst...

[SFLcane]

Looks like models have dropped development GFS, FV3 thus far

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like models have dropped development GFS, FV3 thus far

Yep, the 12z FV3-GFS through 180hrs. has nothing and shows a weak broad low pressure area heading west in the Central Gulf.

[Ken711]

Looks like models have dropped development GFS, FV3 thus far

Looks that way.

[SFLcane]

Way to much shear... Now if we can get some cool wx across Florida that would be great. Good luck with that though.

[OuterBanker]

Looks like models have dropped development GFS, FV3 thus far

12 z Fv3 not fully rendered yet, but yes it did seem to drop it.

That's a good thing because the 06z fv3 looked like a headache from the Fl panhandle to the NC coast.

There was some agreement from several models earlier on a panhandle hit but with large differences in strength and time.

I still think El Nino is saying that I'll have none of it.

[Aric Dunn]

IT appears everyone has forgotten the one thing to remember about looking at models... especially pre cyclogenesis ....

[TheStormExpert]

Well if conditions are unfavorable then you can forget about anything spinning up. The El Niño is telling us that the season is nearly over, and if the 12z Euro shows nada then this place will be a ghost town come this evening.