Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
EURO shows cold front not makingit down here even though still far out but models have struggeld bad with fronts been showing fronts for 4 weeks and hasn't materiailzed yet, also the other models shows the front weaker except for the icon
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
So much shear down there right now formation is unlikely...
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- gatorcane
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
Low resolution JMA sends this north through South Florida:


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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
Actually the naked swirl speed towards Honduras looks kind of interesting


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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
xironman wrote:Actually the naked swirl speed towards Honduras looks kind of interesting
https://i.imgur.com/gLX0Tky.jpg
Is this naked swirl by any chance ex-Florence? I lost track of it.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
xironman wrote:Actually the naked swirl speed towards Honduras looks kind of interesting
https://i.imgur.com/gLX0Tky.jpg
Yeah, its starting to pull in some inflow from the SE. Convection is building with it and its starting to dive SW now as the larger Gyre in the sw Carrib pulls on it. it could be the catalyst as it rotates south later.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
FRom a little earlier.


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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
if we can't get nothing here this could be our last system to be watching for the US, I want atleast one more system to watch lol
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- SFLcane
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
EPS is all over the place but still some impacts on the Florida peninisula.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
SFLcane wrote:EPS is all over the place but still some impacts on the Florida peninisula.
I count either 6 or 7 of the 51 members hitting FL with a H (1 or 2 on 10/10 and 5 on 10/14-6) and 1 H hitting LA on 10/15. Pretty active to say the least but only fwiw. 1 hits Miami on 10/10 from the south whereas the other 6 hit the west coast between Apalach and Tampa. The Miami one actually goes back over the far NE GOM and then curls back into FL (Big Bend) as a H again.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
One thing i did notice is that most of the strong EPS members are over Florida.


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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
I am thinking just good rains for the gulf coasts next week.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
also the ones towards florida develop this on the eastern side by gerogetown and kingston so if it develops there then I can see that playing out.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
Looking a bit more active this afternoon down in the SW caribbean.


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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
SFLcane wrote:Looking a bit more active this afternoon down in the SW caribbean.
https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/03/wow222.jpg
moisture is going to be out there the next 7-12 days we know that but I don't if the ingredients are there to get a hurricane out of it maybe a hybrid trop storm but just don't see it right now.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
A lot of blue across the Gulf and Florida on the 240 hour EPS frame. Maybe something does end up developing but we may be a week+ away from that happening. So we can be talking about this (potential) system for a while.


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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
I don't even look past 5 days on models because the keep changing, what euro does show is la/tx wet and then maybe longer range florida is wet.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea
EPS now up to a 65 - 70% chance of a TD forming in the NW Caribbean.



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