Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#501 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:21 pm

EURO shows cold front not makingit down here even though still far out but models have struggeld bad with fronts been showing fronts for 4 weeks and hasn't materiailzed yet, also the other models shows the front weaker except for the icon
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#502 Postby Frank2 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:30 pm

So much shear down there right now formation is unlikely...
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#503 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:32 pm

Low resolution JMA sends this north through South Florida:

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#504 Postby xironman » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:37 pm

Actually the naked swirl speed towards Honduras looks kind of interesting

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#505 Postby LarryWx » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:41 pm

xironman wrote:Actually the naked swirl speed towards Honduras looks kind of interesting

https://i.imgur.com/gLX0Tky.jpg


Is this naked swirl by any chance ex-Florence? I lost track of it.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#506 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:42 pm

xironman wrote:Actually the naked swirl speed towards Honduras looks kind of interesting

https://i.imgur.com/gLX0Tky.jpg


Yeah, its starting to pull in some inflow from the SE. Convection is building with it and its starting to dive SW now as the larger Gyre in the sw Carrib pulls on it. it could be the catalyst as it rotates south later.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#507 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:50 pm

Vorticity on the increase:

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#508 Postby Aric Dunn » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:51 pm

FRom a little earlier.

Image
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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#509 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:51 pm

if we can't get nothing here this could be our last system to be watching for the US, I want atleast one more system to watch lol
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#510 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:53 pm

EPS is all over the place but still some impacts on the Florida peninisula.
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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#511 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:56 pm

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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#512 Postby LarryWx » Wed Oct 03, 2018 2:56 pm

SFLcane wrote:EPS is all over the place but still some impacts on the Florida peninisula.


I count either 6 or 7 of the 51 members hitting FL with a H (1 or 2 on 10/10 and 5 on 10/14-6) and 1 H hitting LA on 10/15. Pretty active to say the least but only fwiw. 1 hits Miami on 10/10 from the south whereas the other 6 hit the west coast between Apalach and Tampa. The Miami one actually goes back over the far NE GOM and then curls back into FL (Big Bend) as a H again.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#513 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:02 pm

One thing i did notice is that most of the strong EPS members are over Florida.

Image
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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#514 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:04 pm

I am thinking just good rains for the gulf coasts next week.
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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#515 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:07 pm

also the ones towards florida develop this on the eastern side by gerogetown and kingston so if it develops there then I can see that playing out.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#516 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:17 pm

Looking a bit more active this afternoon down in the SW caribbean.

Image
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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#517 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:19 pm

SFLcane wrote:Looking a bit more active this afternoon down in the SW caribbean.

https://www.imageupload.co.uk/images/2018/10/03/wow222.jpg



moisture is going to be out there the next 7-12 days we know that but I don't if the ingredients are there to get a hurricane out of it maybe a hybrid trop storm but just don't see it right now.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#518 Postby gatorcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:19 pm

A lot of blue across the Gulf and Florida on the 240 hour EPS frame. Maybe something does end up developing but we may be a week+ away from that happening. So we can be talking about this (potential) system for a while.

Image
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stormlover2013

Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#519 Postby stormlover2013 » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:22 pm

I don't even look past 5 days on models because the keep changing, what euro does show is la/tx wet and then maybe longer range florida is wet.
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Re: Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea

#520 Postby SFLcane » Wed Oct 03, 2018 3:33 pm

EPS now up to a 65 - 70% chance of a TD forming in the NW Caribbean. :eek:

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