Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[GCANE]

West winds reported at Puerto Lempira

[LarryWx]

More on the 51 member 0Z EPS, which was much more active than any earlier run, along with Oct. 1-10 genesis climo:

13 H landfalls on FL (in addition to several TS hits):
- 5 Panhandle
- 5 Apalachicola to N of Tampa (includes Big Bend)
- 2 Tampa-Sarasota area
- 1 south tip


Not to be ignored, it also has 3 landfalls on LA (in addition to 2 TSs):
- 1 LA/MS border on 10/10
- 1 W LA 10/13
- 1 central LA 10/15


Tracks of TC with genesis 10/1-10 1851-2015:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/climo/images/oct_1_10.png

Favors a NE mover over FL but a significant 2nd max (just like the 0Z EPS has) moving N to NE over LA, especially central and eastern LA.

[Dean4Storms]

Looks like that LLC is starting to pop with convection, this might slowly organize this weekend.

[psyclone]

Out of an abundance of caution I've activated the patented Tampa Bay hurricane shield. We're closing in on a 100 year streak (1921) absent a major hurricane and we've just come too far to give up now. On a slightly more serious note let's hope the persistent shear keeps whatever eventually comes of this in check. I'm all in for some tropical storm party weather but tall trees (which I love) really temper my enthusiasm for anything more than that..

[Aric Dunn]

I see our vort from yesterday has grown quite a bit.

A couple of quick look scenarios.

1. the LLC begins to move more S then Se back over water in response to convection that appears to be building between it and that larger convective mass.

2. the LLC dies over land and then a secondary circ develops near the large convective mass.

[Dean4Storms]

I see our vort from yesterday has grown quite a bit.

A couple of quick look scenarios.

1. the LLC begins to move more S then Se back over water in response to convection that appears to be building between it and that larger convective mass.

2. the LLC dies over land and then a secondary circ develops near the large convective mass.

Does seem that the small LLC is caught in a broader overall gyre, given time and over the water it should slowly consolidate and if shear relaxes any at all then all bets are off.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ToddKimberlain/status/1047872386203377665

[Aric Dunn]

I see our vort from yesterday has grown quite a bit.

A couple of quick look scenarios.

1. the LLC begins to move more S then Se back over water in response to convection that appears to be building between it and that larger convective mass.

2. the LLC dies over land and then a secondary circ develops near the large convective mass.

Does seem that the small LLC is caught in a broader overall gyre, given time and over the water it should slowly consolidate and if shear relaxes any at all then all bets are off.

Yeah, assuming we get a solid llc with continuous convection shear should begin to relax some. we will see throughout today what actually happens with the surface consolidation.

[Hurricaneman]

Once again the GFS is south of all the other models hence no development

[Aric Dunn]

After taking a closer look at everything. I would not be surprised if another circ forms North of San Andres Island over the next few hours especially if the current llc moves inland and spins down and if convection continues to build east of Honduras.

[Aric Dunn]

AS strange as it is .. the CMC is the only model that has stuck to the same solution this entire time. and the 00z euro now has a very similar solution.

unsure why this is not an invest yet. but I imagine it will coming today at some point.

[Aric Dunn]

ICON is on board with the 00z EUro, and cmc now.

[stormlover2013]

CMC ridge is weaker and cold front is stronger than the GFS, GFS ridge is stronger and the cold front is weaker lol should be fun to watch.

[Emmett_Brown]

Even though there is a ton of shear over the NW Caribbean and S GOM today, the 12Z GFS run shows this shear lessening quite a bit by 130 hours. (And still fails to develop it, so there you go).

[blp]

12z Ukmet now inline with the others. Goes into the North Gulfcoast

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.3N 91.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------

0000UTC 09.10.2018 108 23.5N 92.3W 1001 32
1200UTC 09.10.2018 120 25.1N 92.1W 999 33
0000UTC 10.10.2018 132 28.4N 91.7W 996 40
1200UTC 10.10.2018 144 32.5N 90.5W 995 33

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the GFS is on an island of its own

[tpr1967]

When are they going to make this an Invest?

[stormlover2013]

Icon has weaker ridge and stronger front, man I hope we get a front finally but who knows

[Hurricaneman]

Icon has weaker ridge and stronger front, man I hope we get a front finally but who knows

I must say the front can wait, damage from a hurricane is not cool when you want some cooler days

[blp]

Graphic view of Ukmet into Louisiana at 997mb. Major shift from Texas on the 00z run.