OK inquiring minds want to know....

[DESTRUCTION5]

Ream me if you must...

Speaking of dicey, here is what I am envisioning next week. First of all, Nicholas should become a hurricane, but I don't think it will be able to break the trof over the Atlantic. The hurricane center this morning bit on the turn to the west and that is possible, but this will be no Isabel; a the bent track theory is not meant for October storms. It may be on the charts a week (and even 10 days) from now, but even then it may not even be west of 60 west. Basically it will just add to the named storm days. Yee haw.

However, the southwest Caribbean is the place to watch in this pattern. This is all pattern recognition I am trying to score this coup with, not tracking some wave or saying this will be the one or that. Negative NAOs are times for tropical pulses. Those pulses get pushed farther south and west as the season wears on, until finally they are south, far south and west nothing can develop. But the process described yesterday still holds water with me. What ups the ante is the chance for a huge weather event next week, involving a major clash of the seasons, with true arctic air rushing southward for the Gulf, a major trof amplifying in the Mississippi Valley and picking up whatever is in the Caribbean and pulling it northward.

Is it just moisture and heat to add fuel to the trofs baroclinic fire, or something much bigger? The first "wave" that had a chance to develop is in Central America now and the GFS develops it on the Pacific side, and by doing so would probably limit west Caribbean developments. The UKMET insists, though, that development is in the northwest Caribbean, right where the pattern says it should be down the road. Add to this the hurricane forecast update which says the last place that needs to be hit to get that upped score is Florida, and this is based on past patterns similar to this year, and you see my concern.

What's funny about something like this is no matter how much research or how close that landfall forecast is, it's luck to some. I THINK IT WOULD BE LUCK FOR FLORIDA IF SOMETHING DOESN'T HIT THEM BEFORE IT'S OVER. But that is because a person not looking at what I am doing would naturally try to dismiss it, just as I would try to defend it. In any case, I think this whole pattern is on the way to some real excitement.

A true meteorological madman, though, is excited about any pattern, even high pressure and dry air.....

But if I have my druthers, no matter where we play the World Series next week, the weather could get wild, be it in the Northeast late in the week, or Chicago or Miami midweek.

[dixiebreeze]

Interesting analysis Destructions. Thanks for the thought food.