Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[stormlover2013]

Icon has weaker ridge and stronger front, man I hope we get a front finally but who knows

I must say the front can wait, damage from a hurricane is not cool when you want some cooler days

Well if the front doesn’t come this will in sw la/tx so that’s where I’m by so I wouldn’t mind a front...

[TheStormExpert]

Icon has weaker ridge and stronger front, man I hope we get a front finally but who knows

I must say the front can wait, damage from a hurricane is not cool when you want some cooler days

Yeah I remember Wilma being propelled NE across S.FL by a seasonably strong cold front which bought record overnight lows for a night or two here in West Palm Beach but we payed a price BIG TIME for that. Thankfully Wilma was a short duration event only last 4-6 hours and not 24-48 hours like Frances the previous year or it have been MUCH worse! Still was bad though.

[TheStormExpert]

Icon has weaker ridge and stronger front, man I hope we get a front finally but who knows

I must say the front can wait, damage from a hurricane is not cool when you want some cooler days

Well if the front doesn’t come this will in sw la/tx so that’s where I’m by so I wouldn’t mind a front...

Either way someone along the Gulf Coast is going to get it. I’m leaning towards the western Gulf from Mississippi over to Texas with the strong stubborn ridge in place across the Eastern seaboard. Just don’t see a strong enough trough to cause this to be a Florida peninsula threat.

[GCANE]

Surface low may have moved onshore.

[Florida1118]

Well if conditions are unfavorable then you can forget about anything spinning up. The El Niño is telling us that the season is nearly over, and if the 12z Euro shows nada then this place will be a ghost town come this evening.

It seems we've yet again gone from season cancel, El-Nino is coming, abandon ship yesterday afternoon, to now full-steam ahead development, someone's getting something today

[stormlover2013]

Also it depends where it forms, still a lot at play usually Texas would be out of the woods in October but this year it’s not

[GCANE]

Looks like some popups will fire up over land this afternoon.
Could be the jolt it needs if it is over water tonight.

[SoupBone]

Also it depends where it forms, still a lot at play usually Texas would be out of the woods in October but this year it’s not

You're speaking in future terms too. There's just as much uncertainty as to Texas being in play as compared to Texas being safe by a front protection. Climo argues that in just under 2 weeks, Texas should have some sort of Fall front. If not, well I blame Wxman57.

[stormlover2013]

Also it depends where it forms, still a lot at play usually Texas would be out of the woods in October but this year it’s not

You're speaking in future terms too. There's just as much uncertainty as to Texas being in play as compared to Texas being safe by a front protection. Climo argues that in just under 2 weeks, Texas should have some sort of Fall front. If not, well I blame Wxman57.

Well hopefully the models get the front right this time, I mean I would like to know a pros opinion but we should be getting one soon

[robbielyn]

Well if conditions are unfavorable then you can forget about anything spinning up. The El Niño is telling us that the season is nearly over, and if the 12z Euro shows nada then this place will be a ghost town come this evening.

It seems we've yet again gone from season cancel, El-Nino is coming, abandon ship yesterday afternoon, to now full-steam ahead development, someone's getting something today

Haha that happens every year here. One of the reasons I love Storm2k. Chasing a potential storm is like being on a rollercoaster ride. Weather is so unpredictable, that is what makes it so intoxicating.

[psyclone]

Well if conditions are unfavorable then you can forget about anything spinning up. The El Niño is telling us that the season is nearly over, and if the 12z Euro shows nada then this place will be a ghost town come this evening.

It seems we've yet again gone from season cancel, El-Nino is coming, abandon ship yesterday afternoon, to now full-steam ahead development, someone's getting something today

Never fails. At this juncture something is probably more likely than not although it's impossible to know if it will be something of consequence. If something forms and makes it into the Gulf it will likely end up east of 90 longitude...mid October and beyond climo becomes compelling.

[robbielyn]

Well if conditions are unfavorable then you can forget about anything spinning up. The El Niño is telling us that the season is nearly over, and if the 12z Euro shows nada then this place will be a ghost town come this evening.

It seems we've yet again gone from season cancel, El-Nino is coming, abandon ship yesterday afternoon, to now full-steam ahead development, someone's getting something today

Never fails. At this juncture something is probably more likely than not although it's impossible to know if it will be something of consequence. If something forms and makes it into the Gulf it will likely end up east of 90 longitude...mid October and beyond climo becomes compelling.

Yeah well psyclone just keep it west of 85 at least please. Glad you activated the shields. they haven't worked as well with Irma last year and Hermine the year before that although it wasn't a direct hit it was too close for comfort.

[TheStormExpert]

12z GEFS trending stronger and more right closer the the FL Big Bend region.

[Aric Dunn]

It does appear another circ is trying to form ese of Honduras and North of San Andres Island.

[sunnyday]

So, has Fl dodged another bullet?

[Ivanhater]

GFS, EURO,ULMET, CMC,NAV all north central gulf coast so far

[TheStormExpert]

So, has Fl dodged another bullet?

Definitely not. Climatology a track towards FL would be favored in October. Though I think anywhere west of Pensacola is a highest risk at the moment.

[LarryWx]

12z GEFS trending stronger and more right closer the the FL Big Bend region.

https://i.imgur.com/sJXIJc5.gif

The 12Z GEFS is the most active yet with out of 21 members:

- 8 FL TS+ hits (4 H, 4 TS) all Pensacola to Tampa
- 4 LA hits (1 H, 3 TS) with 2 of those also hitting MS/AL

[CyclonicFury]

Models are trending back towards development today. Looks like some wrote this system off too soon. I'm expecting an increase to code orange in the 5-day TWO.

[SouthFLTropics]

12z Euro is running...Vort definitely stronger than yesterday's 12z.