Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[boca]

So, has Fl dodged another bullet?

Definitely not. Climatology a track towards FL would be favored in October. Though I think anywhere west of Pensacola is a highest risk at the moment.

I think South Florida is probably the least likely to get this, but we still have to watch since it’s October. To be politically correct no one is out of the woods,just my personal opinion.

[toad strangler]

I certainly don't have the balls to declare any area over another without a storm yet.

[blp]

Still offshore. Will it put the brakes or head inland. Next few hours are key.

https://col.st/H49Rs

[Aric Dunn]

Still offshore.

https://col.st/H49Rs

.
it will be shortly and it is weakening. start looking to the east.

[TheStormExpert]

Up to 40% @ 5 days on the 2pm TWO.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 4 2018

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Leslie, located over the central Atlantic Ocean.

1. A broad low pressure area centered near the northeastern coasts of
Nicaragua and Honduras is producing an extensive area of
disorganized clouds and thunderstorms over the central and western
Caribbean Sea, as well as portions of Central America. While
surface pressures are relatively low in the area, upper-level winds
are currently not favorable for tropical cyclone formation.
Environmental conditions could become less hostile by late this
weekend or early next week, and a tropical depression could form as
the system moves slowly northwestward across the northwestern
Caribbean Sea and the southern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Beven

[SFLcane]

I certainly don't have the balls to declare any area over another without a storm yet.

Has Florida dogged another bullet? There isn’t even a well defined surface low as of yet like come on. If you want to get threatened by a tropical just in sfl sw Caribbean is your prime spot in October. Let’s get a full fletched tc going first before we start saying it’s heading towards the gulfcoast etc. still plenty of shear this will most likely be a very lobsided system with most of its weather to the east.

[SoupBone]

So where's our weather history experts today? When's the last time, the western and central gulf coast did not see a single cool/cold front of substance in October?

[fox13weather]

So where's our weather history experts today? When's the last time, the western and central gulf coast did not see a single cool/cold front of substance in October?

Not unusual at all to not have a cold front until mid to late October. All it takes is a ridge in the southeast, which there is now, and have been many times in the past....

[AutoPenalti]

So, has Fl dodged another bullet?

Umm, no. This is still 10+ days out...

[gatorcane]

Looks like it could end up similar to Nate of last year where the ridge protected peninsula Florida even in October:

[gatorcane]

Euro looks like it is ramping up in Southern Gulf:

[tarheelprogrammer]

Euro looks like it is ramping up in Southern Gulf:

https://i.postimg.cc/DwytGmYt/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_6.png

Much weaker at 12z than 0z at hour 144 on the ECMWF.

[stormlover2013]

I could see that euro track if the cold front comes, that's climatology written all over it.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro looks like it is ramping up in Southern Gulf:

https://i.postimg.cc/DwytGmYt/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_6.png

Much weaker at 12z than 0z at hour 144 on the ECMWF.

.
Because it is much faster. by roughly 120 to 144 hours the 00z euro was still in the southern gulf.

12z it is already in northern gulf and turning.

this is because it initialized the current LLC that will die over land.

things are going to change quite a bit still with timing since we dont have a defined area yet.

[stormlover2013]

yeah this was a much quicker run and little more west

[Steve]

12z Ukmet now inline with the others. Goes into the North Gulfcoast

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS

FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 22.3N 91.8W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------

0000UTC 09.10.2018 108 23.5N 92.3W 1001 32
1200UTC 09.10.2018 120 25.1N 92.1W 999 33
0000UTC 10.10.2018 132 28.4N 91.7W 996 40
1200UTC 10.10.2018 144 32.5N 90.5W 995 33

Looks significantly farther west than the EC/CMC solutions. It's more the Lili side of things.

[Steve]

So, has Fl dodged another bullet?

Umm, no. This is still 10+ days out...

I'm not disagreeing with you, but I don't think it's 10+ days at this point - more like 7/8.

[gatorcane]

Low-resolution JMA has a more climatological track into SW Florida heading NNE:

[stormlover2013]

has center forming way way east of other models

[tarheelprogrammer]

Euro looks like it is ramping up in Southern Gulf:

https://i.postimg.cc/DwytGmYt/ecmwf_uv850_vort_watl_6.png

Much weaker at 12z than 0z at hour 144 on the ECMWF.

.
Because it is much faster. by roughly 120 to 144 hours the 00z euro was still in the southern gulf.

12z it is already in northern gulf and turning.

this is because it initialized the current LLC that will die over land.

things are going to change quite a bit still with timing since we dont have a defined area yet.

Oh okay, I didn't know. Still getting caught up. All I know is keep this away from the Carolinas. Thanks.