Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[TheStormExpert]

So basically a Alberto, or Gordon repeat is what’s to be expected? Still too soon to be so certain but the 12z EPS did trend towards a North-Central Gulf threat as opposed to a FL Gulf threat, and weaker.

[TheStormExpert]

South Florida is in the safe zone according to wxman57.We could use the rain.

aybe on your side of the coast but not the west side

Even if the storm stays in the central gulf the peninsula will get into a deep southerly tropical-rich flow.

[Aric Dunn]

Watching this general area for a center reformation. already some signs of this.

as the circ that just moved over Land weakens we should see something offshore take over fairly quickly in the next 12 hours.

[otowntiger]

South Florida is in the safe zone according to wxman57.We could use the rain.

aybe on your side of the coast but not the west side

Even if the storm stays in the central gulf the peninsula will get into a deep southerly tropical-rich flow.

I guess this is possible if the system is big enough and disorganized enough. but more often than not system that follow a similar path work to dry us up due to subsidence. We could use some rain too, even though we had a very wet summer, we've been essentially rainless since Florence dried us out. Hate having to run my irrigaiton. Really hate these hot/dry shoulder seasons (i.e. May and September)

[AnnularCane]

Well if conditions are unfavorable then you can forget about anything spinning up. The El Niño is telling us that the season is nearly over, and if the 12z Euro shows nada then this place will be a ghost town come this evening.

It seems we've yet again gone from season cancel, El-Nino is coming, abandon ship yesterday afternoon, to now full-steam ahead development, someone's getting something today

Haha that happens every year here. One of the reasons I love Storm2k. Chasing a potential storm is like being on a rollercoaster ride. Weather is so unpredictable, that is what makes it so intoxicating.

Yeah, but sometimes I wish you guys would make up your minds!

[blp]

Watching this general area for a center reformation. already some signs of this.

as the circ that just moved over Land weakens we should see something offshore take over fairly quickly in the next 12 hours.

https://image.ibb.co/hK14Wz/Capture.gif

This would also change the track as you mentioned. This thing continues to be very fluid.

[AutoPenalti]

South Florida is in the safe zone according to wxman57.We could use the rain.

maybe on your side of the coast but not the west side

That's a pretty bold statement for something this far out in time and has yet to develop some sort of LLC.

[BobHarlem]

South Florida is in the safe zone according to wxman57.We could use the rain.

maybe on your side of the coast but not the west side

That's a pretty bold statement for something that has yet to develop some sort of LLC.

FWIW the FV3 GFS shows a pretty decent rain band across S. Florida when the system is in the Gulf on Tuesday. Center impacts, not likely, but some rain, yes. Either way you have models varying from nothing to a fairly strong TS with NO Center. Too early to say what the impacts are anywhere. (Inicdently that same model shows more Florida impact from the system coming across the week after)

The only thing really to make of it is anywhere in the Gulf should be watching for a weak this system next week, and maybe another system the week after. Anything more specific than that is kinda foolish with nothing developed.

[robbielyn]

I have a severe weather related question involving mostly tropical storms/hurricanes. I hv lived on the west coast of Florida for many years. I want to know why more often than not, why the worst conditions of wind and rain(not talking about regular for summertime storms) occur at night for the most part. I don't want my or other people's lives to be turned upside down don't misunderstand, but most of the fun(winds)happens when I sleep like hermine and irma and I sleep right through it. It just seems so ironic. I end up missing the whole thing. I hv always been facinated by strong winds that's the best part of the storm for me but they are so elusive. and while I sleep through them, sometimes I wake up and feel more scared cuz they are at night. but I can do nothing about that so I go back to sleep. I miss seeing the trees blow but just have to hear the winds and hope a tree dont fall through the house. even Kate in 1985 hit at night when I lived in the panhandle.

[robbielyn]

It seems we've yet again gone from season cancel, El-Nino is coming, abandon ship yesterday afternoon, to now full-steam ahead development, someone's getting something today

Haha that happens every year here. One of the reasons I love Storm2k. Chasing a potential storm is like being on a rollercoaster ride. Weather is so unpredictable, that is what makes it so intoxicating.

Yeah, but sometimes I wish you guys would make up your minds!

We all are hanging on the windshield wipers swinging along with the models west then east then west again til they zone in on a location. some keep us guessing til the very last minute. that's what's so fun. it's never boring when there's potential.

[Dean4Storms]

Not liking the general solutions of a TC toward the upper Gulf Coast with me being just 10 miles east of Destin. Guess I need to prep the RV this weekend just in case we need to bug out.

[floridasun78]

Icon has weaker ridge and stronger front, man I hope we get a front finally but who knows

I must say the front can wait, damage from a hurricane is not cool when you want some cooler days

Yeah I remember Wilma being propelled NE across S.FL by a seasonably strong cold front which bought record overnight lows for a night or two here in West Palm Beach but we payed a price BIG TIME for that. Thankfully Wilma was a short duration event only last 4-6 hours and not 24-48 hours like Frances the previous year or it have been MUCH worse! Still was bad though.

i remember temp drop too upper 50s

[boca]

South Florida is in the safe zone according to wxman57.We could use the rain.

maybe on your side of the coast but not the west side

That's a pretty bold statement for something this far out in time and has yet to develop some sort of LLC.

I was just agreeing with wxman57 on his prediction and he said South Florida would likely be ok.

[cycloneye]

Pick a center.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1047941406256320512

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pick a center.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1047941406256320512

The one in the Pacific moving NE looks like it could be the one that comes across and develops It seems the most organized

[jlauderdal]

Yep, no power but it was very cool for days

I must say the front can wait, damage from a hurricane is not cool when you want some cooler days

Yeah I remember Wilma being propelled NE across S.FL by a seasonably strong cold front which bought record overnight lows for a night or two here in West Palm Beach but we payed a price BIG TIME for that. Thankfully Wilma was a short duration event only last 4-6 hours and not 24-48 hours like Frances the previous year or it have been MUCH worse! Still was bad though.

i remember temp drop too upper 50s

[SFLcane]

Thankfully Wilma was a once in a lifetime storm.

[SFLcane]

Regardless of center reformation high pressure should block any movement towards South Florida. This is wxman57 thinking. We shall see

[TheStormExpert]

Thankfully Wilma was a once in a lifetime storm.

So was that season, hopefully.

[LarryWx]

I found 19 TCs on record since 1851 during El Nino that had genesis 10/1-10 either in the W Caribbean or the GOM. Of those, 11 landfalled in FL with 6 of those hitting in/near the Big Bend though none have done so since 1900, 1 hitting Tampa area, 3 hitting Ft. Myers area, and 1 hitting the S tip. Another 2 hit LA and 1 hit the TX/LA border. So, 14 of 19 hit the CONUS. Regarding the other 5, 3 hit the Bahamas or Turks and Caicos, 1 hit MX, and 1 died in the W Caribbean.
13 of the 19 were during weak Nino, 3 during moderate Nino, and 3 during strong Nino. So, of all during El Nino, they've been more common during weak ones similar to what we're in now.
Of the 14 that hit the CONUS, the good news that only 5 hit as a H. I assume this is partially due to there being shear inducing El Nino in some of these cases. But the bad news is that SSTs are above normal much of the GOM..so more fuel.