Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Steve]

Not liking the general solutions of a TC toward the upper Gulf Coast with me being just 10 miles east of Destin. Guess I need to prep the RV this weekend just in case we need to bug out.

Prepping is the right thing to do,but the likelihood of anything stronger than a fading 2 would surprise me. NEward landfalling North Gulf solutions rarely are a grave threat into the fall. I think a higher end tropical storm or hurricane Cat 1 could be in the cards. But butted up against shear/a front, you could see something intensifying across the Gulf then weakening north of 26/27. Think Opal (but not starting as far west or as strong) which got to a 4 or so but over the loop current but fell off to a 3 landfalling. There were other processes at work with it because we had 50moh winds here due to the super tight isobars. It also, like Juan in 1985, ushered in the fall.

If you live in the RV, that’s a different situation obviously.

[wxman57]

South Florida is in the safe zone according to wxman57.We could use the rain.

maybe on your side of the coast but not the west side

That's a pretty bold statement for something this far out in time and has yet to develop some sort of LLC.

I'm just making a forecast based on the best-available information. I've been forecasting tropical cyclones worldwide since 1980, before most of the members here were alive. Our clients have to take actions up to 7-10 days ahead of a possible impact (not a guaranteed impact). We cannot wait until recon flies out there Monday afternoon and finds a depression to make a forecast. All indications are that the high pressure along the east U.S. coast will be strong enough to keep it west of the FL Peninsula. Even if the high wasn't strong enough and the disturbance tracked near S. FL, all that Florida would get would be rain as it moved across Cuba into S. Florida. They may still get rain as it passes well west. Not much of a chance to develop if it doesn't cross the Gulf. I'm just not concerned about a TS or H hitting south Florida. I know we can't be 100% confident until it develops and is heading for land, but the odds are pretty good that south FL is going to be OK.

[SFLcane]

Thx 57 that high pressure system has been parked across the southeast for weeks. If this waits to develop till the gulf it may never amount to much other then a weak sheared T.S. As you have been stating that shear in the gulf and Caribbean is not going anywhere.

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO:

Surface observations and satellite data indicate that an area of low
pressure is located near Cabo Gracias a Dios on the eastern border
of Honduras and Nicaragua. This system is accompanied by an
extensive area of disturbed weather extending from Central America
eastward through Hispaniola. Upper-level winds are not currently
favorable for tropical cyclone formation, but environmental
conditions are forecast to become less hostile and a tropical
depression could form by late this weekend or early next week in the
northwestern Caribbean Sea or the southern Gulf of Mexico as the
system moves slowly northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone
formation, this disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains
primarily to portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula
during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

[OuterBanker]

maybe on your side of the coast but not the west side

That's a pretty bold statement for something this far out in time and has yet to develop some sort of LLC.

I'm just making a forecast based on the best-available information. I've been forecasting tropical cyclones worldwide since 1980, before most of the members here were alive. Our clients have to take actions up to 7-10 days ahead of a possible impact (not a guaranteed impact). We cannot wait until recon flies out there Monday afternoon and finds a depression to make a forecast. All indications are that the high pressure along the east U.S. coast will be strong enough to keep it west of the FL Peninsula. Even if the high wasn't strong enough and the disturbance tracked near S. FL, all that Florida would get would be rain as it moved across Cuba into S. Florida. They may still get rain as it passes well west. Not much of a chance to develop if it doesn't cross the Gulf. I'm just not concerned about a TS or H hitting south Florida. I know we can't be 100% confident until it develops and is heading for land, but the odds are pretty good that south FL is going to be OK.

Waxman, my biggest concern is that this will be a broad east weighted storm that interacts with the front producing copious amounts of rain in the already inundated areas of NC.

[gatorcane]

We have some GFS ensembles bringing a hurricane near Tampa:

[gatorcane]

The GEFS ensembles that landfall near Tampa get close to landfall in SW Florida:

[Nimbus]

Pick a center.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1047941406256320512

The one in the Pacific moving NE looks like it could be the one that comes across and develops It seems the most organized

The 18Z GFS is showing a Pacific storm later in the forecast but doesn't seem to show anything in the Gulf of Mexico? Other models really don't have anything specific to initialize yet but it does look like the building high will track it west of S FL. You never know about gulf storms, digging troughs can occur when systems stall and the upper level winds have time to change.

[gatorcane]

NAVGEM shifts east:

[wxman57]

Wxman, my biggest concern is that this will be a broad east weighted storm that interacts with the front producing copious amounts of rain in the already inundated areas of NC.

That could well happen. After it moves inland it will likely be moving northeast. There is the potential for more heavy rain across the Carolinas late next week.

[gatorcane]

The GEFS ensembles that landfall near Tampa get close to landfall in SW Florida:


https://i.postimg.cc/9QhBJ3Ld/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_32.png

Seems the ensembles that take longer to eject out of the Caribbean are over or near peninsula Florida on a NE track. There is a weakness that could be there around 1 week from now or a little longer if the GFS is right:

[gatorcane]

New vorticity forming east of the stronger one near coast:

[CourierPR]

[quote="gatorcane"]New vorticity forming east of the stronger one near coast:

Might that vorticity take over and produce a center, thus initiating development?

[NDG]

The reason this will not be a threat to the FL Peninsula, one heck of an unusual 594dm mid level off of the mid Atlantic in place by early next week to mid next week thanks to the persistent +NAO pattern.

[Ivanhater]

There were years when the persistent east coast trough was in place....what a change

[northjaxpro]

That is a massive ridge should it verify. Positive NAO. really set in place.

Whatever develops down in the Csribbean will in all likelihood be a potential Gulf threat from Pensacola and points westward.

Crazy anomolous pattern right now, more like early August than early October.

[SFLcane]

Yep that about sums it up NDG it’s highly unlikely what ever comes north impacts Florida with other then some rain. Summer time continues around here for the foreseeable future.

[SFLcane]

[quote="Ivanhater"]There were years when the persistent east coast trough was in place....what a change

Very thankful it’s been a slow year in terms of named storms cause things could have gotten very ugly with that monster ridge parked of the southeast.

[Emmett_Brown]

That is definitely a ridge that would block any move toward FL early next week. However, the models (mostly their ensembles) that do show a FL approach are those that develop the system a little later, giving the ridge an opportunity to shift E slightly, and the trough time to swing through and create a weakness. It's all about how long it takes for the low to form and start moving N. The pattern the models are depicting isn't changing that much from yesterday to today... more that the storm is forming and moving up more quickly.

[northjaxpro]

That is definitely a ridge that would block any move toward FL early next week. However, the models (mostly their ensembles) that do show a FL approach are those that develop the system a little later, giving the ridge an opportunity to shift E slightly, and the trough time to swing through and create a weakness. It's all about how long it takes for the low to form and start moving N. The pattern the models are depicting isn't changing that much from yesterday to today... more that the storm is forming and moving up more quickly.

Well said Emmett. Timing and placement of ridge/development of storm will say a lot down the road.