Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[Aric Dunn]

THere is mounting evidence of a low level circ in the northern portion of that convection visible sat is showing this ( may not be all the way to the surface but with that amount of convection wont take long).

ALso it is pretty clear from the below loop what is going on. 850 mb and lower vorticity is rapidly increasing in the same area.. would not be surprised to see a solid LLC come out of that convection today.


and also possible nothing comes of it today lol

[SFLcane]

That's a bit eastward if that were true Aric

[gatorcane]

Wind shear continues to be a problem:

[cycloneye]

I made a thread at the active storms/invests forum but is not what you think it is so we stay here for now.Stay tuned.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120021&p=2717568#p2717568

[Aric Dunn]

That's a bit eastward if that were true Aric

not too much..

its also possible that vort that got spit out was it. the shear is becoming more divergent and the sear axis more tilted but shear is still high enough to keep things stacked long enough. will see what happens in that area.

[gatorcane]

ICON keeps this system nearly stationary in the EGOM for 4 days while gaining strength:

[chaser1]

I made a thread at the active storms/invests forum but is not what you think it is so we stay here for now.Stay tuned.

viewtopic.php?f=59&t=120021&p=2717568#p2717568

Luis, how 'bout we also start a thread over in the Active Storm/Invest Forum: "Potential Tropical Invest - Discussion" . Seriously though, I have to imagine that given the increasing model consensus showing of a disturbance near Yucatan in the 72-84 hr. range, along with now having a persistant area of low pressure and disturbed weather in the W. Caribbean.... we'll likely have this tagged as an Invest later today or tomm. a.m.

[gatorcane]

More defined on the GFS and drifting near Yucatan:

[gatorcane]

GFS stronger and creeping north:

[TheStormExpert]

Looks like the 12z GFS is joining the development bandwagon again.

[tarheelprogrammer]

I honestly feel like people in the GOM should pay attention to this one. I feel a lot of people are underestimating this threat. In my opinion. We shall see.

[gatorcane]

JMA stronger and heading north towards Cuba:

[gatorcane]

Turning NNE and intensifying, might be temporary NNE:

[SFLcane]

12z Icon was drifting eastward on the last frame if it waits the front could catch it

[chaser1]

GFS stronger and creeping north:

https://i.postimg.cc/7Ys40rD6/gfs_z850_vort_watl_12.png

Yep, showing a 1004mb low at 66 hours. Assuming later GFS runs begin showing a bit of consistancy, I'd say the nearer term growing model consensus is finally becoming relevant. We'll see if the EURO begins to nudge eastward as well

[gatorcane]

Getting stronger:

[gatorcane]

Down to 978MB now on the GFS. I say dev chances are going up and it is getting a bit concerning with this run.

[TheStormExpert]

The GFS went from crickets to a intensify hurricane in southern Gulf just like that! The Ensembles were a good precursor.

[chaser1]

Boy?! 988 mb at 90 hr's , is quite the turn around for the GFS

[TheStormExpert]

Boy?! 988 mb at 90 hr's , is quite the turn around for the GFS

It’s 978mb at 102hrs.