Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[chaser1]

oh it could happen, no doubt about, we need to see consistency GFS hasn't been consistent heck the most consistent has been CMC

Sad but true. Actually you can throw the Nogaps in with the CMC (sadder yet lol)

[otowntiger]

That's a big change for the GFS, and its not even happy hour. What would 966 approx. equate to? cat 2/3 or stronger? It will be interesting to see if GFS develops some consistancy and of course perhaps more importantly if the Euro follows suit on intensity.

[Stormcenter]

GFS....enough said.

[psyclone]

That GFS run would sure pile up the water in the very surge prone big bend region.

[KUEFC]

SO far the CMC pretty much has not wavered in days.. same general track into the gulf. after that its to far out.

current 12z CMC is farther west.

Yeah, the only way this comes further west is if shorter term motion brings it similar to what the CMC is showing. I believe a path directly through the Yucatan Channel or over the tip of Cuba takes this into FL.

But Florida where?

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1048245782095249411

[stormlover2013]

CMC shifts west

[chaser1]

Lets just hope that the GFS doesn't begin to pick up any ideas from the ICON run is laying down.

[stormlover2013]

alot of this depends on where the center forms

[chaser1]

Hi, Uncle SAL?? Kids really miss you after spending so much time with us this summer. We were thinking about another "VACA" up in the Florida Panhandle later next week..... wanna come join??

[NDG]

Not surprised by the latest GFS as there were a number ensemble members showing it to become a hurricane during the last couple of runs with UL conditions forecasted to be not as bad over the GOM as earlier thought.

[northjaxpro]

So, 12Z GFS depicts a narrow trough to drop in and erode the massive East Coast ridge and interact with the potential cyclone.

This trough obviously could be. the critical player next week. with intensity and potential track should it materializes.

[tarheelprogrammer]

NAVGEM 06z and GFS 12z. Nearly the same strength and the same landfall location at the same time. That is not common

[Dean4Storms]

Well this is getting concerning for those of us in the FL Panhandle. We've been dodging bullets since Dennis and hope our luck holds out.

[toad strangler]

I this verifies I'm riding the NAVGEM like Secretariat for the rest of October.

[NDG]

[northjaxpro]

My oh my the interest with the upcoming EURO 0Z run later this evening!

If the EURO run later shows similar aggressiveness like the 12Z GFS , the buzz is really going to get cranking around here...

[chaser1]

Looks like this will largely play out dependant on exact timing and location of genesis. CMC and EURO (up to now) depicting slightly more west and perhaps a tad faster? Right now it would seem that the ICON is the Easternmost outlier, however that's not saying a lot given the overall minimal spread of potential model solutions. On that note, the ICON is the only present model that really hefts up the E. Conus mid level ridge to cause such a long stall in the E. Gulf. The other models depict a far more reasonable solution for an October track. Only thing I know however is that this has been one heck of an anomalous "year of the S.E. Conus Ridge". A more westward track toward Louisiana or some sort of a full on Gulf stall, would'nt shock me given the recent pattern.

[stormlover2013]

New gfs fv3 is west of its previous run also...we need to get a center...gfs and icon are farther east..

[LarryWx]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 17.4N 85.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 24 17.8N 86.5W 1006 27
0000UTC 07.10.2018 36 18.4N 86.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 07.10.2018 48 19.0N 86.9W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 60 19.9N 86.7W 1000 32
1200UTC 08.10.2018 72 20.8N 87.0W 998 39
0000UTC 09.10.2018 84 21.9N 87.4W 995 37
1200UTC 09.10.2018 96 23.2N 87.7W 992 49
0000UTC 10.10.2018 108 25.0N 87.6W 986 54
1200UTC 10.10.2018 120 27.7N 87.2W 968 67
0000UTC 11.10.2018 132 30.5N 86.4W 959 69
1200UTC 11.10.2018 144 33.0N 85.3W 978 27