Broad area of disturbed weather in the Western Caribbean Sea (Is INVEST 91L)

[chaser1]

I this verifies I'm riding the NAVGEM like Secretariat for the rest of October.

Great post lol!

[GCANE]

Another day, another swirl

[Kennethb]

I sense that Sergio as it nears Baja nest week with a pumping ridge and downstream trough should help keep potential Michael moving N to NE.

[chaser1]

I think a dominant COC will eventually form close to 16 N and 82 W. You can see the rotation in the mid levels and I believe it's beginning to look fairly tight.

[Evil Jeremy]

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 18 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 18 : 17.4N 85.7W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.10.2018 24 17.8N 86.5W 1006 27
0000UTC 07.10.2018 36 18.4N 86.2W 1004 28
1200UTC 07.10.2018 48 19.0N 86.9W 1003 32
0000UTC 08.10.2018 60 19.9N 86.7W 1000 32
1200UTC 08.10.2018 72 20.8N 87.0W 998 39
0000UTC 09.10.2018 84 21.9N 87.4W 995 37
1200UTC 09.10.2018 96 23.2N 87.7W 992 49
0000UTC 10.10.2018 108 25.0N 87.6W 986 54
1200UTC 10.10.2018 120 27.7N 87.2W 968 67
0000UTC 11.10.2018 132 30.5N 86.4W 959 69
1200UTC 11.10.2018 144 33.0N 85.3W 978 27

Destin landfall

[LarryWx]

Following along with the 12Z GFS, the 12Z GEFS is much more active than any prior run I can recall.

[TheStormExpert]

Hoping this gets designated an Invest shortly after the 2pm TWO.

[KUEFC]

Forgive me if I sound a little simple here, but can any of this actually change?, for instance it ends up ALOT weaker than is being depicted now? Location etc?

[gatorcane]

GFS ensembles east of operational. Big bend and west coast of Florida hits and some in SE Gulf:

[EquusStorm]

I'm a little shocked they haven't designated it already even despite the iffy center, since an Invest designation is for systems very much like this one that they wish to further investigate. I assume very soon.

[KUEFC]

GFS ensembles east of operational. Big bend and west coast of Florida hits and some in SE Gulf:

https://i.postimg.cc/rmWBZgsR/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_25.png

Honestly don’t understand any of this, which one should be trusted regarding track etc?

[gatorcane]

I expect code red from NHC at 2pm EST.

[SoupBone]

GFS ensembles east of operational. Big bend and west coast of Florida hits and some in SE Gulf:

https://i.postimg.cc/rmWBZgsR/gfs-ememb_lowlocs_watl_25.png

If this doesn't follow climo, I don't know what does.

[AutoPenalti]

Don’t see why this should be tagged as an invest yet. Pressures are still relatively high, shear is still strong in that part of the basin and if anything there’s still no concentrated center of circulation. I’d think by Sunday we should see some announcement.

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure centered near the northeastern coast
of Honduras is drifting northwestward and producing disorganized
shower and thunderstorm activity from Central America
east-northeastward across the Western Caribbean to Hispaniola.
Although strong winds aloft persist just to the north of the
system, the upper-level environment is expected to be conducive
enough to allow slow development. A tropical depression could
form by late this weekend or early next week over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico while the system moves northwestward
to northward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, this
disturbance will continue to bring torrential rains primarily to
portions of Central America and the Yucatan peninsula during the
next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[SFLcane]

There are some GFS ensembles as far south as Fort myers

[storm4u]

Code red at 2pm

[otowntiger]

Forgive me if I sound a little simple here, but can any of this actually change?, for instance it ends up ALOT weaker than is being depicted now? Location etc?

Absolutely. All of it can change a good bit. There is a very wide range of possibilities at this point. As the storm develops and we move closer in time to the forecast progression that range will begin to narrow considerably. but right now yes it can certainly change.

[NDG]

Starting to see a better COC starting to take over near the coast of eastern Honduras with vortices rotating around it, well defined mid level circulation to the east of it closer to the deep convection. As it tracks towards the GOH over the next couple of days that's where we should see a better consolidation as it usually happens due to the shape of the coast.

[SFLcane]

Development cone well west of Florida...keep it that way please.