ATL: MICHAEL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 91, 2018100418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 832W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 835W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100506, , BEST, 0, 153N, 838W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100512, , BEST, 0, 157N, 840W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036, SPAWNINVEST, al712018 to al912018,
AL, 91, 2018100518, , BEST, 0, 160N, 843W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120008

[AutoPenalti]

Well, that was fast.

[Evil Jeremy]

AL, 91, 2018100418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 832W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 835W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100506, , BEST, 0, 153N, 838W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100512, , BEST, 0, 157N, 840W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036, SPAWNINVEST, al712018 to al912018,
AL, 91, 2018100518, , BEST, 0, 160N, 843W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

Is "genesis" a new Best Track designation? I don't recall seeing it in prior years? If it's new (and I wouldn't rely on my memory), that would explain why Invests are getting 'tagged' later.

[jlauderdal]

How about the lowest pressure poll, this is a tough system to figure out so whoever wins that gets a gold star

[meriland29]

Since seeing what the GFS and EURO have come out with in their latest models, it is really got my attention now. Looks like they presume a tight coiled, smaller hurricane...but smaller hurricanes ramp up pretty fast which is concerning since it will be in those warm water with limited instability around it which will only act in its favor.

It is interesting that last week this was supposed to skirt near the EC and out, then they forecasted it to never formulate really at all, and now a significant system in the gulf. Wow.

I guess the Atlantic isnt done yet

[cycloneye]

[NDG]

AL, 91, 2018100418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 832W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 835W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100506, , BEST, 0, 153N, 838W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100512, , BEST, 0, 157N, 840W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036, SPAWNINVEST, al712018 to al912018,
AL, 91, 2018100518, , BEST, 0, 160N, 843W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120008

https://i.imgur.com/EYyUVt7.png

Right where I had placed the X a couple of hours ago on my suspected area

[northjaxpro]

Good eyes NDG.

[Aric Dunn]

AL, 91, 2018100418, , BEST, 0, 145N, 832W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100500, , BEST, 0, 149N, 835W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100506, , BEST, 0, 153N, 838W, 20, 1007, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,
AL, 91, 2018100512, , BEST, 0, 157N, 840W, 20, 1008, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 100, 90, 0, 0, , 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS036, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036, SPAWNINVEST, al712018 to al912018,
AL, 91, 2018100518, , BEST, 0, 160N, 843W, 25, 1007, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1009, 100, 90, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 036,

Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120008

https://i.imgur.com/EYyUVt7.png

Right where I had placed the X a couple of hours ago on my suspected area

https://i.imgur.com/NrjXTx1.gif

had to take a nap lol..
yeah looks like it came out of the convection earlier. has good rotational energy.. just needs convection with it now or it till will spin down and another will form wherever convection develops.

[meriland29]

On a side note, how does the sheer/dry air/ and water temps look in the gulf? Specifically the central and eastern half?

[Ubuntwo]

On a side note, how does the sheer/dry air/ and water temps look in the gulf? Specifically the central and eastern half?

[MetroMike]

Well, that was fast.

Not really unless you are being sarcastic.

[Frank P]

Well the circulation on the Pacific side of the gyre still looks much better than any little swirls in the Atlantic..

[Aric Dunn]

Well the circulation on the Pacific side of the gyre still looks much better than any little swirls in the Atlantic..

yeah, thats going to be moving over some high mountains soon so the competition between the two will end soon.

[wxman57]

Note that current shear does not equal future shear. GFS indicates quite strong shear developing across the Gulf as the disturbance moves northward on Monday/Tuesday. I think we're looking at another sheared TS, similar to Gordon. Landfall somewhere between Pascagoula, MS and the mid FL Panhandle Wed afternoon. Went with 45 kts on my forecast. Certainly could not rule out 55-60 kts, but not forecasting that. Not much weather west of the track, and squalls could extend all the way east across the FL Peninsula Tue/Wed.

[Aric Dunn]

Man looking at the models. if that super narrow trough that develops.. well actually it is the upper low that is currently there but over the next couple days begins to narrow. There is a possibility that trough weakens faster allowing the ridge to build in sooner or another possibility that it might cut off helping to vent it.

going to be an interesting forecast.

all in all the shear forecast is not even close to being set in stone.

[chaser1]

Looking at present visible satellite, I'm just not convinced that the low level swirl co-located with where 91L is presumed to be will (or is) a true dominant point where genesis will occur. The turning is very evident but without convection and this feature appearing to be moving to the west, this area of vorticity could just be one of several vorts that have been shot out of a straw like a spit-ball. "Belize-it" or not, this particular feature might just be transient as well. "Sooner" development would seem to work in tandem with a further west initialization such as what the EURO might suggest, and also imply a track somewhat more to the left (Biloxi/Mobile/Pensacola?). I still believe that a true COC will eventually evolve closer to where the MLC is (or will be). Unless the mid level low (which I believe is east of that point) begins to move westward, then eventual development might be a bit east of some of the more western biased models. It's unknown whether or not that occurs, but the implications would certainly suggest a possibility of eventual landfall a little farther to the east. It's also my thinking that if (and the longer) genesis were delayed, then the farther east the track will be as well. Looking at the present lack of a clear COC and assuming that the present tracked LLC is merely transient, I'm leary of the speed in which nearly all models suggest increased organization supposedly beginning around 12Z Sunday.

[otowntiger]

Note that current shear does not equal future shear. GFS indicates quite strong shear developing across the Gulf as the disturbance moves northward on Monday/Tuesday. I think we're looking at another sheared TS, similar to Gordon. Landfall somewhere between Pascagoula, MS and the mid FL Panhandle Wed afternoon. Went with 45 kts on my forecast. Certainly could not rule out 55-60 kts, but not forecasting that. Not much weather west of the track, and squalls could extend all the way east across the FL Peninsula Tue/Wed.

http://wxman57.com/images/shear.png

Good! Sounds pretty non-eventful unless it moves very slowly dropping lots of rain, and significant flooding results. But wind/storm surge wise this won't amount to much. Hopeful for some decent soaking rains here in Orlando but not holding my breath.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking at present visible satellite, I'm just not convinced that the low level swirl co-located with where 91L is presumed to be will (or is) a true dominant point where genesis will occur. The turning is very evident but without convection and this feature appearing to be moving to the west, this area of vorticity could just be one of several vorts that have been shot out of a straw like a spit-ball. "Belize-it" or not, this particular feature might just be transient as well. "Sooner" development would seem to work in tandem with a further west initialization such as what the EURO might suggest, and also imply a track somewhat more to the left (Biloxi/Mobile/Pensacola?). I still believe that a true COC will eventually evolve closer to where the MLC is (or will be). Unless the mid level low (which I believe is east of that point) begins to move westward, then eventual development might be a bit east of some of the more western biased models. It's unknown whether or not that occurs, but the implications would certainly suggest a possibility of eventual landfall a little farther to the east. It's also my thinking that if (and the longer) genesis were delayed, then the farther east the track will be as well. Looking at the present lack of a clear COC and assuming that the present tracked LLC is merely transient, I'm leary of the speed in which nearly all models suggest increased organization supposedly beginning around 12Z Sunday.

not necessarily, if you notice in the models, the system has been stalling or doing a loop, if the center forms farther east or the whole thing moves slower the next couple days it may very well go farther west as the ridging would have built back in by then. the NE turn on the models is already barely titering on the edge of being trapped.

[AnnularCane]

I guess I probably know the answer since there's no thread on it yet, but has recon been scheduled yet?