2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
Shear, shear and more shear
The Caribbean as a whole has been extremely hostile all season long.
The Caribbean as a whole has been extremely hostile all season long.
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- AJC3
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (Out to day 16)
LarryWx wrote:I think there is enough of a threat now to consider starting a new thread addressing early Oct Caribbean potential TC so it doesn’t clutter up this thread. I mean we don’t even have a discussion thread for this yet as the remnants of Kirk thread may not be the best place to discuss it. Opinions?
Done!
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=120008
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will suplant old GFS by late January}
Here is the news of FV3 taking over from the old GFS by the 24th of January.See details at link below.
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alic ... ey/fv3gfs/
http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/users/Alic ... ey/fv3gfs/
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
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- cycloneye
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January}
A good question by Levi Cowan about the Ensembles.
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1047159956879953926
https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1047159956879953926
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Seems as though some of the models are developing another system in the Western Caribbean late between 8 to 10 days the models are the Euro, FV3 GFS and Canadian
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- toad strangler
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Hurricaneman wrote:Seems as though some of the models are developing another system in the Western Caribbean late between 8 to 10 days the models are the Euro, FV3 GFS and Canadian
This could turn out to be that classic October track.
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Yep the 12z Euro has a slowly organizing 1009mb area of low pressure just south of Jamaica in 10 days.
Just looking at the 500mb pattern though it would likely take a similar track across eastern Cuba as earlier thoughts on track for the current Caribbean area.
Just looking at the 500mb pattern though it would likely take a similar track across eastern Cuba as earlier thoughts on track for the current Caribbean area.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
CMC has it as well. So FV3, Euro and CMC so far.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
12z Euro still showing another system from the S Caribbean late in the run
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- TheStormExpert
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Third Euro run in a row so it maybe worth watching. Ends with a quickly organizing 999mb low drifting slowly west. The TW at 30W, 10N maybe the catalyst.
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Looks like a shortwave heading through the Central US to breakdown the ridge and possibly allow it to move north:
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- Hurricaneman
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
TheStormExpert wrote:Third Euro run in a row so it maybe worth watching. Ends with a quickly organizing 999mb low drifting slowly west. The TW at 30W, 10N maybe the catalyst.
https://preview.ibb.co/cx4TRz/ecmwf_mslpa_watl_11.png
The GFS FV3 has this feature make landfall near Ft Myers at 294 but much weaker so it seems like we’re coming to some kind of model support for development again in the western Caribbean around day 8
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Can we start a discussion regarding this possible storm to keep it clear from the models thread?
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Good Euro ensembles' support for a possible second Caribbean system in the 7-14 day range.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Just one problem thankfully it’s extremely hostile from Africa throughout the entire Caribbean. I don’t buy the euro
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
SFLcane wrote:Just one problem thankfully it’s extremely hostile from Africa throughout the entire Caribbean. I don’t buy the euro
Not that I trust shear forecasts 10 days out but it don't look too shabby on the GFS at least. Which does not have the system ATM.
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- SFLcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
Shear had been ripping all year especially eastern Caribbean no reason why that would change.
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- gatorcane
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
SFLcane wrote:Shear had been ripping all year especially eastern Caribbean no reason why that would change.
But I don’t recall the models showing anything in the Caribbean either until now. Seems the conditions might improve and October is prime time for Caribbean.
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Re: 2018 Tropics: Global Model Runs Discussion (FV3 will take over from old GFS on 24th of January)
ballred wrote:Can we start a discussion regarding this possible storm to keep it clear from the models thread?
No. This is exactly the place to discuss model-advertised systems in the extended range. Starting "modelstorm" threads is expressly forbidden when there isn't even an incipient disturbance yet. Read the pinned thread above if you have any questions about this.
viewtopic.php?f=31&t=109634
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