Texas Fall 2018

[Haris]

I posted the newest poama model snowfall forecast for December 2018...

On the winter thread. Check it out

[Ntxw]

It is still very warm and humid across the state. Dew points are sitting quite high with high pwats. It will not take much for a heavy rain event. WPC emphasizes some extreme rainfall in NW Texas into Oklahoma. I suspect with time this will slowly shift east/southeast.

High level moisture will stream up from the tropical Pacific (Sergio) this week along with a frontal boundary. Eventually Sergio will make it's way into the Baja many days later and inject more moisture but beyond the 5 day forecast period.

[dhweather]

Does this qualify as a multilayered cap?

[Haris]

Afternoon European has 3,000 - 4,000 cape over SCTX Tuesday....

Shows a very impressive likely squall line from Oklahoma- Dallas - Austin

2” for Austin! Yes please

[weatherdude1108]

Bob Rose:
https://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-we ... ather.aspx

[weatherdude1108]

EWX:

000
FXUS64 KEWX 052014
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
314 PM CDT Fri Oct 5 2018

.SHORT TERM (Tonight through Saturday Night)...
A few light showers are ongoing across portions of the coastal plains
early this afternoon. Radar trends along with most of the hi-res
model guidance suggest most activity will remain east of the
I-35/I-37 corridors this afternoon. With this in mind, we did reduce
rain chances slightly along the I-35 corridor for the remainder of
today. Most areas should remain dry this evening, but as the low-
level jet strengthens, we do expect a few showers will develop
during the early morning hours on Saturday. For Saturday afternoon,
rain chances will be favored along and east of the I-35 corridor as
moisture levels will be higher across the mentioned region. With the
subtropical ridge axis to our east loosing some strength, we could
see a little increase in coverage of showers and storms for Saturday
afternoon compared to the last couple of days.

&&

.LONG TERM (Sunday through Friday)...
On Sunday, a lead shortwave trough axis will approach from the west.
This should help to weaken the upper ridge to our east and begin to
allow for a little more active southwest flow aloft to the region.
Rain chances will increase slightly on Sunday with scattered showers
and storms expected, especially during the afternoon hours. Rain
chances are then to set to increase Monday and Tuesday as the main
upper trough axis moves in from the west. We also continue to monitor
for tropical development in the Gulf during the middle of the
upcoming week. As of now, it appears any tropical activity that
develops in the Gulf should remain east of our region.

Rain chances will decrease quickly on Wednesday and Thursday as the
upper trough axis moves east of the region. Much drier air behind
the upper trough axis will move in and bring dry weather to our area.

For late next week, the medium range models show good agreement in
bringing the remnants of Hurricane Sergio into the desert southwest
or southern Rockies by early Friday morning. For now, we will only
mention a chance of rain across portions of the southern Edwards
Plateau and Rio Grande plains and leave the remainder of the region
dry.

&&

[weatherdude1108]

Interesting about the slight risk of hazardous temperatures, as far down as south central Texas.

[Brent]

still 60s for highs next weekend forecast on TV

Could it actually verify this time?

[gpsnowman]

still 60s for highs next weekend forecast on TV

Could it actually verify this time?

Just saw that. In one week we could be tracking the arrival of a bona fide fall front. Oh please, oh please, oh please.

[starsfan65]

still 60s for highs next weekend forecast on TV

Could it actually verify this time?

Channel 8 doesn't show that

[Brent]

still 60s for highs next weekend forecast on TV

Could it actually verify this time?

Channel 8 doesn't show that

Channel 5 had it

end of the 18z GFS has a snowstorm for the Panhandle

[JDawg512]

Hey, sorry I've been MIA lately, things have been hectic in my life but looks like its starting to settle down so expect to see me around more often. Got just a little over 6 inches for September and about an inch to start off October. Looking forward to seeing how the rest of this month pans out for rainfall.

[Brent]

GFS has multiple days where Dallas would struggle to 70 for a high starting next weekend

The heat and humidity days are numbered...

[DFW Stormwatcher]

still 60s for highs next weekend forecast on TV

Could it actually verify this time?

Channel 8 doesn't show that

Channel 8 hasn't had a real meteorologists since Steve McCauley left, Channel 5 has several weathermen hat are more on point. No station gets all of the weather chasing tools channel 5 has without some true dorks on board:) They're the only ones with a mobile doppler truck and a storm truck in North Texas.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

still 60s for highs next weekend forecast on TV

Could it actually verify this time?

Channel 8 doesn't show that

Channel 8 hasn't had a real meteorologist since Steve McCauley left, Channel 5 has several weathermen hat are more on point. No station gets all of the weather chasing tools channel 5 has without some true dorks on board:) They're the only ones with a mobile doppler truck and a storm truck in North Texas.

[DFW Stormwatcher]

Channel 8 doesn't show that

Channel 8 hasn't had a real meteorologist since Steve McCauley left, Channel 5 has several weathermen that are more on point. No station gets all of the weather chasing tools channel 5 has without some true dorks on board:) They're the only ones with a mobile doppler truck and a storm truck in North Texas.

[Haris]

Gotta a very heavy storm out in W Austin this morning.

A quick .64" fell @ my location.

[KatDaddy]

Who is ready for the first real strong TX cold front? As much as I dislike cold weather.............unless it snows.......the first strong cold front is always refreshing and finishes off any late season NW GOM tropical threats for the season.

[Haris]

12z GFS has Sergio recurving into TX and I mean.... a deluge beyond

[Cpv17]

12z GFS has Sergio recurving into TX and I mean.... a deluge beyond

I just saw this. Caught me by surprise no doubt. Idk what to think of it though. It kinda came outta nowhere to me lol