ATL: MICHAEL - Models

[hurricaneCW]

The Gfs intensity modelling has been awful lately, I do not buy that forecast one bit.

Euro has the right idea when it comes to intensity though I'm guessing it'll be somewhat stronger than shown (980-990mb).

Also shear may be modeled to be strong but that's relative depending on the storm's movement, a la Wilma. Just saying a strengthening system up towards LF would not surprise me but it won't be what the Gfs shows.

Could be a major rainmaker for the entire east coast.

[p1nheadlarry]

rapidly deeping up to landfall. major hurricane

Yikes!!! 957mb?? Small and potent. Nothing worse then an intensifying 'cane right up to landfall. I'm wondering what the strongest N. Gulf Coast 'cane this late has been up to this point?

Opal was early Oct

[SFLcane]

Yikes 18z ICON.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100518&fh=222

Eastward shift...would put rains bands across FL for sure.

[KUEFC]

Yikes 18z ICON.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100518&fh=222

Eastward shift...would put rains bands across FL

Hardly reliable model is it?

[p1nheadlarry]

FV3 into Pascagoula/Bayou la Batre

[stormlover2013]

I have been watching the icon for the whole season it’s worse than the cmc it’s horrendous

[Abdullah]

Peninsular Florida isn't in play anymore?

[Nimbus]

Still waiting for a LLC to exit or form off the coast of Honduras before I'm going to choose a model.
Kind of disturbing that most of the models are showing a favorable low shear environment near the northern gulf coast landfall. West coast of Florida would see some storm surge if this was a hurricane but 975 MB isn't going to do much damage on any of the current modeled tracks offshore.

[ronjon]

Yikes 18z ICON.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=icon&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100518&fh=222

Eastward shift...would put rains bands across FL for sure.

I'm not worried about rainbands SFL but storm surge. Had water in my house with Hermine which was only a CAT 1.

[floridasun78]

will 97e come play with 91l when cross over or 91l going eat 97e

[ronjon]

18z NAVGEM - similar to 18z GFS.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=navgem&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2018100518&fh=234

[Emmett_Brown]

There is a cluster of 18z GEFS ensemble members still taking aim at the Big Bend FL area, just to the E and a little slower than the 18Z ops runs. Not sure it is an important difference, but continues to support the idea the idea that a storm arriving a little later, heads a little more E.

[cycloneye]

00z SHIP run has a good deal of shear and that is why it does not go to Hurricane.

* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912018 10/06/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 57 56
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 42 32
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 27 26 26 27 30 31 32 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 25 27 28 25 25 26 25 19 15 21 15 15 25
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 2 0 -3 -1 2 -4 -1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 259 261 265 269 268 280 271 295 264 294 278 239 209
SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 155 154 153 155 158 158 158 143 148 147 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 139 143 140 138 140 142 146 148 134 135 131 129
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 7 6 9 7 9 8 8 5 6
700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 72 71 70 68 69 66 69 69 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 19 24 24 24 25 23
850 MB ENV VOR 81 79 69 64 71 62 67 68 69 65 40 20 64
200 MB DIV 68 64 79 106 99 30 29 31 33 19 40 38 59
700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 2 10 17 18 22 23 24
LAND (KM) 70 112 162 196 164 115 104 130 64 301 146 -100 -450
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.1 20.2 22.3 25.2 28.4 31.4 34.4
LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.1 85.6 85.9 86.1 86.5 86.5 85.9 85.1 84.9 85.6 86.2 85.0
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 4 3 3 4 9 13 16 16 15 17
HEAT CONTENT 38 43 46 49 51 52 54 70 92 25 28 3 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=619)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 11. 11. 11. 11. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 14. 23. 25. 28. 32. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 84.7

** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.29 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.83 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.2% 12.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.0% 6.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 2.0% 4.8%
Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.5% 7.6% 4.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 10/06/2018 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 42 32
18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 27 28 36 45 47 50 39 29
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 23 24 32 41 43 46 35 25
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 16 24 33 35 38 27 17
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

[Dean4Storms]

GFS being the GFs.....won’t buy it unless other models
jump aboard.

You can't discount it, it is supported pretty well by the GEFS Ensembles. There are many GEFS Ensembles and ECM Ensembles with a hurricane.

[N2FSU]

12z UKMET

[Dean4Storms]

12z UKMET

https://imageshack.com/a/img924/267/PoAEy1.jpg

https://imageshack.com/a/img922/9069/3I3pXE.jpg

Ugh.... That would be making landfall about 10 miles to my West. Have to prep the RV come Monday for a road trip if this keeps looking like this.

[NDG]

00z SHIP run has a good deal of shear and that is why it does not go to Hurricane.

* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912018 10/06/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 57 56
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 42 32
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 27 26 26 27 30 31 32 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 25 27 28 25 25 26 25 19 15 21 15 15 25
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 2 0 -3 -1 2 -4 -1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 259 261 265 269 268 280 271 295 264 294 278 239 209
SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 155 154 153 155 158 158 158 143 148 147 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 139 143 140 138 140 142 146 148 134 135 131 129
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 7 6 9 7 9 8 8 5 6
700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 72 71 70 68 69 66 69 69 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 19 24 24 24 25 23
850 MB ENV VOR 81 79 69 64 71 62 67 68 69 65 40 20 64
200 MB DIV 68 64 79 106 99 30 29 31 33 19 40 38 59
700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 2 10 17 18 22 23 24
LAND (KM) 70 112 162 196 164 115 104 130 64 301 146 -100 -450
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.1 20.2 22.3 25.2 28.4 31.4 34.4
LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.1 85.6 85.9 86.1 86.5 86.5 85.9 85.1 84.9 85.6 86.2 85.0
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 4 3 3 4 9 13 16 16 15 17
HEAT CONTENT 38 43 46 49 51 52 54 70 92 25 28 3 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=619)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 11. 11. 11. 11. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 14. 23. 25. 28. 32. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 84.7

** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.29 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.83 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.2% 12.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.0% 6.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 2.0% 4.8%
Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.5% 7.6% 4.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 10/06/2018 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 42 32
18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 27 28 36 45 47 50 39 29
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 23 24 32 41 43 46 35 25
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 16 24 33 35 38 27 17
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

Completely contrary to the GFS which is still persistent in windshear under 10 knots over it.

[Aric Dunn]

00z SHIP run has a good deal of shear and that is why it does not go to Hurricane.

* ATLANTIC 2018 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL912018 10/06/18 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 57 56
V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 42 32
V (KT) LGEM 25 26 27 28 27 26 26 27 30 31 32 29 27
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 25 27 28 25 25 26 25 19 15 21 15 15 25
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 2 0 -3 -1 2 -4 -1 0 2
SHEAR DIR 259 261 265 269 268 280 271 295 264 294 278 239 209
SST (C) 28.8 29.0 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.4 29.5 29.4 29.3 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.5
POT. INT. (KT) 146 150 155 154 153 155 158 158 158 143 148 147 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 139 143 140 138 140 142 146 148 134 135 131 129
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.4 -53.8 -53.1 -53.0 -53.8 -52.9 -53.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.0 -51.6 -51.0
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.4 1.0 1.4
TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 8 7 6 9 7 9 8 8 5 6
700-500 MB RH 77 76 73 72 72 71 70 68 69 66 69 69 62
MODEL VTX (KT) 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 19 24 24 24 25 23
850 MB ENV VOR 81 79 69 64 71 62 67 68 69 65 40 20 64
200 MB DIV 68 64 79 106 99 30 29 31 33 19 40 38 59
700-850 TADV -3 -2 -3 -3 -4 -1 2 10 17 18 22 23 24
LAND (KM) 70 112 162 196 164 115 104 130 64 301 146 -100 -450
LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.9 17.3 17.7 18.0 18.4 19.1 20.2 22.3 25.2 28.4 31.4 34.4
LONG(DEG W) 84.7 85.1 85.6 85.9 86.1 86.5 86.5 85.9 85.1 84.9 85.6 86.2 85.0
STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 6 4 3 3 4 9 13 16 16 15 17
HEAT CONTENT 38 43 46 49 51 52 54 70 92 25 28 3 3

FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 5 CX,CY: -2/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 653 (MEAN=619)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 55.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 55 KT IN 48 HR): 0.6

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 14. 20. 25. 29. 33. 37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -6. -10. -11. -12. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. -1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -6.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 6. 11. 11. 11. 11. 8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 6. 14. 23. 25. 28. 32. 31.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 25. LAT, LON: 16.5 84.7

** 2018 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -49.5 to 38.5 0.62 4.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 30.1 to 2.3 0.15 0.5
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 45.4 0.0 to 157.3 0.29 1.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 36.6 to 2.8 0.49 1.5
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.0 2.9 to -2.9 0.49 1.4
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 25.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.07 0.1
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 65.2 893.2 to -67.1 0.86 1.9
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.6 28.4 to 141.4 0.83 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 83.2 -29.7 to 185.9 0.52 0.2
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 100.0 to 0.0 1.00 0.2

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 5.0%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.5 times climatological mean (10.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 3.8%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 2.4%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.4%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 5.0% 16.2% 12.3% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 2.0% 6.2% 2.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.8% 2.0% 4.8%
Bayesian: 0.5% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 2.5% 7.6% 4.9% 2.6% 0.1% 0.3% 0.7% 1.6%
DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912018 INVEST 10/06/18 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

CONTRIBUTIONS TO ANNULAR INDEX


** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL912018 INVEST 10/06/2018 00 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)

** DSHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST ADJUSTED RELATIVE TO ONSET OF ERC WEAKENING PHASE **
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
>24HR AGO (DSHIPS) 25 27 28 30 31 30 31 39 48 50 53 42 32
18HR AGO 25 24 25 27 28 27 28 36 45 47 50 39 29
12HR AGO 25 22 21 23 24 23 24 32 41 43 46 35 25
6HR AGO 25 19 16 15 16 15 16 24 33 35 38 27 17
NOW CURRENT INTENSITY < 83 KT
IN 6HR INTENSITY IN 6HR < 83 KT
IN 12HR INTENSITY IN 12HR < 83 KT

Completely contrary to the GFS which is still persistent in windshear under 10 knots over it.

lets wait for the 00z .. trend is for that narrow trough to weaken faster.

ukmet had weak shear, same with icon.. and gfs now. that narrow trough likely wont hanf on all too long.

but we shall see.

[NDG]

0z Early models.

[NDG]

Is not too often that the GFS is more aggressive on intensity than the SHIPS models over the Atlantic Basin, but the trend is upward with the rest of the models.